Lululemon Athletica Inc. · LULU · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Lululemon lowers outlook as North America demand remains pressured

The supplied analysis provides mixed evidence for a resilient-demand recovery thesis: China growth and product and operating initiatives are supportive, but declining comparable sales, lowered guidance, North American weakness, tariffs, and markdowns remain material counterevidence.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $11.14B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.69 Consensus $1.67
EPS surprise +1.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.47B Consensus $2.44B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.6% Event window
SPY move -2.6% Same window
Abnormal move -6.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +0.7% Up to 20 sessions
LULUSPY benchmark

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Why did LULU fall 8.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in LULU's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for LULU after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, the tone shifted from confident to cautious. Management moved from maintained guidance and an expected North American recovery to lowered full-year guidance, while emphasizing SKU reductions, faster product cycles, increased chase capability, and community marketing.

Guidance delta

Management lowered full-year revenue guidance to flat to -1% growth, while still expecting strong growth in China and a high-single-digit decline in North America.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue grew modestly, but comparable sales declined amid product-launch issues and negative media commentary.
  • Management is prioritizing faster product development, SKU reductions, higher chase capability, and community-focused marketing.
  • Tariffs and markdowns are weighing on gross margin, while capital expenditures are being reduced.
  • China remains a key growth area even as North American performance weakens.

Management priorities

  • Restore full-price sales and improve product execution in North America.
  • Reduce SKU count and shorten product-development cycles.
  • Expand chase capability, marketing, community events, and the store footprint.
  • Implement AI-powered systems and automation to improve enterprise efficiency.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LULU EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '25 estimate $2.38 Q1 '25 actual $2.54, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.93 Q2 '25 actual $3.15, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.58 Q1 '26 actual $2.60, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.91 Q2 '26 actual $3.10, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.22 Q3 '26 actual $2.59, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.76 Q4 '26 actual $5.01, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.67 Q1 '27 actual $1.69, beat Q2 '27 estimate $1.79 Q2 '27 actual $2.92, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.40 Q4 '27 estimate $4.97
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold68 ratings
Bullish2638.2%
Neutral3551.5%
Bearish710.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$101.3Current
$70Low
$312.32Average
$542High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainSep 14, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 9, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 4, 2026
Truist Securities Sell SellMaintainSep 4, 2026
Show 64 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $101.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$70$103.19 -30.9%Sep 8, 2026
BernsteinAneesha Sherman$115$121.77 +13.5%Sep 4, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$115$121.77 +13.5%Sep 4, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$100$121.77 -1.3%Sep 4, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$80$121.77 -21.0%Sep 4, 2026
See 143 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Lululemon Athletica Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, specializes in the design, global distribution, and retail of athletic apparel and accessories for both women and men. Its business operations are structured into two main divisions: company-owned retail establishments and direct-to-consumer sales. The firm's offerings encompass a range of clothing such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets, all crafted for promoting a healthy lifestyle and facilitating athletic endeavors. These activities span yoga, running, training, and other physically demanding pursuits. Beyond apparel, Lululemon also supplies fitness-related accessories and a selection of footwear. Customers can acquire Lululemon products through numerous channels. These include a global network of corporate-managed stores, outlet locations, and seasonal warehouse sales.…

Historical context

All LULU earnings
-17.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-8.6%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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TCOM Trip.com Group Limited FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.3% +3.0% Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment
CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.7% -14.2% Casey's Q1: Prepared Food Drives Growth as Fuel Margins Stay Volatile
FIVE Five Below, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.0% -1.3% Five Below raises outlook as its retail flywheel gains momentum
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +35.2% -7.6% Burlington raises earnings outlook as value investment supports demand

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-09-03T21:22:11.469741+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T01:20:52.330740+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T01:20:52.327918+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.