Lululemon Athletica Inc. · LULU · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Lululemon: Performance apparel holds up as U.S. demand and margins weaken

The evidence is mixed for a durable growth recovery: performance apparel, international markets, membership, and new products provide demand support, but U.S. weakness, casual/lounge fatigue, tariff pressure, inventory growth, and reduced guidance argue for a cautious view.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $10.43B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.10 Consensus $2.91
EPS surprise +6.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.53B Consensus $2.53B
Revenue surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -18.6% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -18.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 8.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.6% Up to 20 sessions
LULUSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The outlook became more cautious. Revenue missed guidance, full-year revenue guidance was reduced, management quantified tariff and de-minimis pressures, and the response shifted toward higher new-style penetration, faster product development, and cost and pricing mitigation.

Guidance delta

Management lowered full-year revenue guidance to 2%-4% growth, or 4%-6% excluding the 53rd week, as U.S. sales weakened and tariff costs increased.

Key takeaways

  • Performance apparel and international markets remain the main supports, while casual and lounge categories underperform.
  • Management plans to raise new-style penetration, speed design and vendor collaboration, and use pricing and cost actions to offset tariff pressure.
  • The quarter supports a mixed thesis: demand is resilient in selected categories, but the lower outlook and margin risks limit confidence in broad earnings acceleration.

Management priorities

  • Increase new-style penetration to about 35% by spring 2026 and launch new lounge and social products.
  • Accelerate design and vendor processes, while continuing technology and AI initiatives.
  • Expand selectively in international markets and use pricing, vendor negotiations, and cost actions to mitigate tariffs.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LULU EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $2.28 Q3 '24 actual $2.53, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.00 Q4 '24 actual $5.29, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2.38 Q1 '25 actual $2.54, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.93 Q2 '25 actual $3.15, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.58 Q1 '26 actual $2.60, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.91 Q2 '26 actual $3.10, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.22 Q3 '26 actual $2.59, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.76 Q4 '26 actual $5.01, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.67 Q1 '27 actual $1.69, beat Q2 '27 estimate $1.79 Q2 '27 actual $2.92, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.40 Q4 '27 estimate $4.97
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold68 ratings
Bullish2638.2%
Neutral3551.5%
Bearish710.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$91.88Previous close
$70Low
$312.32Average
$542High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainSep 14, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 9, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 4, 2026
Truist Securities Sell SellMaintainSep 4, 2026
Show 64 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $91.88. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$70$103.19 -23.8%Sep 8, 2026
BernsteinAneesha Sherman$115$121.77 +25.2%Sep 4, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$115$121.77 +25.2%Sep 4, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$100$121.77 +8.8%Sep 4, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$80$121.77 -12.9%Sep 4, 2026
See 143 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Lululemon Athletica Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, specializes in the design, global distribution, and retail of athletic apparel and accessories for both women and men. Its business operations are structured into two main divisions: company-owned retail establishments and direct-to-consumer sales. The firm's offerings encompass a range of clothing such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets, all crafted for promoting a healthy lifestyle and facilitating athletic endeavors. These activities span yoga, running, training, and other physically demanding pursuits. Beyond apparel, Lululemon also supplies fitness-related accessories and a selection of footwear. Customers can acquire Lululemon products through numerous channels. These include a global network of corporate-managed stores, outlet locations, and seasonal warehouse sales.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T05:50:42.236176+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T05:50:42.233296+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.