Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1872.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish00.0%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. · LITE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2025
Lumentum Raises Guidance as AI Optics Demand Drives Record Revenue
The quarter supports a constructive growth case: record revenue, raised guidance and strong AI/cloud demand were accompanied by capacity expansion and new product ramps. The main test is whether Lumentum can convert the reported demand into durable, profitable growth without supply, concentration or competitive-capacity issues eroding margins.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$84.93B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.10
Consensus $1.03
EPS surprise
+6.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$533.8M
Consensus $526.5M
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+23.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+23.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+40.9%
Up to 20 sessions
LITESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LITE FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LITE rise 23.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in LITE's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for LITE after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Lumentum moved from a $600M quarterly revenue target toward Q2 guidance of $630M-$670M, while the supply-demand gap widened to 25%-30%. Management also highlighted new CW-laser deliveries and a planned 40% indium-phosphide capacity increase.
Guidance delta
Management raised Q2 non-GAAP revenue guidance to $630M-$670M, above the prior $600M target.
Key takeaways
- Q1 FY2026 revenue reached $533M, a record and up 58% year over year.
- Management cited AI and cloud demand, with a reported 25%-30% supply-demand shortfall.
- The company plans higher indium-phosphide capacity and continued 200-gig EML, CW-laser, OCS and co-packaged optics development.
Management priorities
- Expand indium-phosphide fab capacity by about 40% over the next few quarters.
- Ramp 200-gig EML shipments and CW-laser production for transceiver applications.
- Scale optical circuit switches and expand manufacturing in Thailand.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,133.4Current
$50Low
$617.89Average
$1,270High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 7, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 10, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2021 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 6, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 11, 2017 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,133.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,232 | $1,085.42 | +8.7% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,220 | $973.49 | +7.6% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Gianmarco Conti | $1,200 | $914.76 | +5.9% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $895 | -2.9% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $820 | $940.49 | -27.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $1,036 | $878.27 | -8.6% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $1,040 | $864.91 | -8.2% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,140 | $820.59 | +0.6% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $1,000 | $820.59 | -11.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,200 | $974.57 | +5.9% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $1,000 | $944.28 | -11.8% | May 7, 2026 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $960 | $933.42 | -15.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $1,014 | $932.5 | -10.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $994.56 | -2.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $1,200 | $994.56 | +5.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $994.56 | -20.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $976.18 | -2.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $1,270 | $902.32 | +12.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,000 | $880.92 | -11.8% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $710 | $890.57 | -37.4% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $800 | $757.92 | -29.4% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $660 | -54.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $645 | $537.02 | -43.1% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $475 | $465.54 | -58.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $445.2 | -59.9% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $483.59 | -57.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $550 | $435.1 | -51.5% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $525 | $435.1 | -53.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $550 | $435.1 | -51.5% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $435.1 | -50.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $411 | -69.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $354.02 | -64.7% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $420 | $354.01 | -62.9% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $365 | $331.62 | -67.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $348.26 | -59.9% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $470 | $392.88 | -58.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $316.15 | -73.2% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $380 | $302.98 | -66.5% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $298.12 | -69.1% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $290 | $255.59 | -74.4% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $232.86 | -77.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $220 | $188.36 | -80.6% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | George Notter | $240 | $188.36 | -78.8% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $235 | $188.36 | -79.3% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $190 | $188.36 | -83.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $200.13 | -80.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $162.95 | -83.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $145 | $159.76 | -87.2% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $165 | $151.38 | -85.4% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $135 | $119.66 | -88.1% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $125 | $119.66 | -89.0% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $80 | $64.42 | -92.9% | May 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $75 | $64.42 | -93.4% | May 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $82 | $73.63 | -92.8% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Richard Shannon | $70 | $52.15 | -93.8% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Dave Kang | $50 | $52.3 | -95.6% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $54 | $45.53 | -95.2% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $69 | $52.18 | -93.9% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $70 | $52.26 | -93.8% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Vivek Arya | $50 | $52.17 | -95.6% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $40 | $45.53 | -96.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $70 | $59.09 | -93.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $80 | $44.11 | -92.9% | May 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $38 | $44.11 | -96.6% | May 7, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $50 | $49.89 | -95.6% | Feb 9, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $50.59 | -94.4% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $54.45 | -94.2% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $89.6 | -91.4% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $89.6 | -89.9% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $93.43 | -91.0% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $85.02 | -91.6% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $77.18 | -91.2% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $88.96 | -90.3% | May 5, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $118 | $89.76 | -89.6% | May 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $83.11 | -91.7% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $84.46 | -91.2% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $120 | $91.49 | -89.4% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $91 | $93.34 | -92.0% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fahad Najam | $93 | $81.98 | -91.8% | Oct 5, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Rod Hall | $86 | $80.06 | -92.4% | Jun 1, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Thomas Diffely | $95 | $67.43 | -91.6% | May 13, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | John Marchetti | $87 | $68.24 | -92.3% | May 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing. The company's reach extends across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Lumentum operates through two principal business units: Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers. The OpComms segment develops and supplies components, modules, and subsystems essential for transmitting video, audio, and data across high-capacity fiber optic networks. Its offerings encompass a wide range of products, including tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules, alongside various tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators. Furthermore, this segment provides critical transport products such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs), optical amplifiers, and optical channel monitors.…
Historical context
All LITE earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T22:30:41.610461+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T22:30:41.607619+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.