Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1872.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish00.0%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. · LITE · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2025
Lumentum: Cloud Demand Strengthens, but Capacity and Tariffs Remain Risks
The quarter supports the view that resilient cloud and AI infrastructure demand can drive earnings growth, but the case depends on converting strong demand into capacity-led shipments while containing tariff, supply and execution risks.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$74.65B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.48
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $418.2M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+24.6%
Up to 20 sessions
LITESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LITE FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LITE's +2.0% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?What changed in LITE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for LITE after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds a quantified 100-basis-point tariff headwind, a China-to-Thailand production shift, early high-power laser production units for co-packaged optics, and continued record EML demand. Versus the prior quarter, margin performance improved while capacity expansion and supply constraints remained central.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reaffirmed the $500 million quarterly run-rate target and expects more than 50% sequential cloud transceiver growth in Q4.
Key takeaways
- Management said Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS exceeded the high end of guidance, driven by cloud and networking demand.
- Record EML chipset shipments and planned capacity expansion support the cloud and AI demand narrative.
- Non-GAAP gross margin reached 35.2% and operating margin 10.8%; management cited cost discipline and product mix.
- Management quantified a 100-basis-point tariff headwind and is shifting production from China to Thailand.
Management priorities
- Ramp CW laser production and begin 200-gig EML shipments.
- Expand Thailand manufacturing capacity and indium-phosphide wafer production.
- Advance co-packaged optics, including early high-power laser production units.
- Continue investment in the R300 optical circuit switch and hyperscaler beta qualification.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$824.13Current
$50Low
$617.89Average
$1,270High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 7, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 10, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2021 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 6, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 11, 2017 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $824.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,232 | $1,085.42 | +49.5% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,220 | $973.49 | +48.0% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Gianmarco Conti | $1,200 | $914.76 | +45.6% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $895 | +33.5% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $820 | $940.49 | -0.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $1,036 | $878.27 | +25.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $1,040 | $864.91 | +26.2% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,140 | $820.59 | +38.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $1,000 | $820.59 | +21.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,200 | $974.57 | +45.6% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $1,000 | $944.28 | +21.3% | May 7, 2026 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $960 | $933.42 | +16.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $1,014 | $932.5 | +23.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $994.56 | +33.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $1,200 | $994.56 | +45.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $994.56 | +9.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $976.18 | +33.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $1,270 | $902.32 | +54.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,000 | $880.92 | +21.3% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $710 | $890.57 | -13.8% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $800 | $757.92 | -2.9% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $660 | -36.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $645 | $537.02 | -21.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $475 | $465.54 | -42.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $445.2 | -44.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $483.59 | -41.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $550 | $435.1 | -33.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $525 | $435.1 | -36.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $550 | $435.1 | -33.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $435.1 | -31.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $411 | -57.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $354.02 | -51.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $420 | $354.01 | -49.0% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $365 | $331.62 | -55.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $348.26 | -44.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $470 | $392.88 | -43.0% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $316.15 | -63.1% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $380 | $302.98 | -53.9% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $298.12 | -57.5% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $290 | $255.59 | -64.8% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $232.86 | -69.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $220 | $188.36 | -73.3% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | George Notter | $240 | $188.36 | -70.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $235 | $188.36 | -71.5% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $190 | $188.36 | -76.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $200.13 | -73.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $162.95 | -76.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $145 | $159.76 | -82.4% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $165 | $151.38 | -80.0% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $135 | $119.66 | -83.6% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $125 | $119.66 | -84.8% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $80 | $64.42 | -90.3% | May 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $75 | $64.42 | -90.9% | May 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $82 | $73.63 | -90.1% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Richard Shannon | $70 | $52.15 | -91.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Dave Kang | $50 | $52.3 | -93.9% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $54 | $45.53 | -93.4% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $69 | $52.18 | -91.6% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $70 | $52.26 | -91.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Vivek Arya | $50 | $52.17 | -93.9% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $40 | $45.53 | -95.1% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $70 | $59.09 | -91.5% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $80 | $44.11 | -90.3% | May 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $38 | $44.11 | -95.4% | May 7, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $50 | $49.89 | -93.9% | Feb 9, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $50.59 | -92.2% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $54.45 | -92.0% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $89.6 | -88.1% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $89.6 | -86.2% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $93.43 | -87.6% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $85.02 | -88.5% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $77.18 | -87.9% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $88.96 | -86.7% | May 5, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $118 | $89.76 | -85.7% | May 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $83.11 | -88.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $84.46 | -87.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $120 | $91.49 | -85.4% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $91 | $93.34 | -89.0% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fahad Najam | $93 | $81.98 | -88.7% | Oct 5, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Rod Hall | $86 | $80.06 | -89.6% | Jun 1, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Thomas Diffely | $95 | $67.43 | -88.5% | May 13, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | John Marchetti | $87 | $68.24 | -89.4% | May 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing. The company's reach extends across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Lumentum operates through two principal business units: Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers. The OpComms segment develops and supplies components, modules, and subsystems essential for transmitting video, audio, and data across high-capacity fiber optic networks. Its offerings encompass a wide range of products, including tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules, alongside various tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators. Furthermore, this segment provides critical transport products such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs), optical amplifiers, and optical channel monitors.…
Historical context
All LITE earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -25.0% | +3.9% | Wipro: AI pipeline expands as Q3 guidance stays narrow |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -1.8% | TSMC beats Q3 guidance as AI demand drives fab expansion |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +28.6% | +11.8% | Ericsson Q3: 7% organic growth, resilient margins and AI-led demand |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.4% | -3.9% | ASML: Record Q3, strong AI demand and broader capacity plans |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-23T23:56:15.339046+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T02:40:41.578104+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T02:40:41.575291+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.