Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1872.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish00.0%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. · LITE · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q1 2025
Lumentum: Cloud demand strong, but supply and ramp risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a positive demand trajectory for Lumentum's cloud, networking and AI-interconnect products, but near-term execution depends on converting customer qualifications, expanding capacity and managing supply and yield constraints.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$68.50B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.27
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $380.0M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.1%
Up to 20 sessions
LITESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LITE FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LITE's -0.6% move after FY2025 Q2 earnings?What changed in LITE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for LITE after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, the current quarter adds record EML shipments, demand expected to outpace supply through 2026, a new high-power AI-interconnect laser, and a CEO transition to Michael Hurlston. The outlook remains constructive while supply and ramp risks are more explicit.
Guidance delta
Management maintained a constructive outlook, with Q3 guidance of $410–$425 million revenue and 9.5%–10.5% non-GAAP margin in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Cloud and networking growth remained the central driver, with the segment up 20% sequentially in the supplied analysis.
- Management highlighted record 200 Gbps EML shipments and demand expected to exceed supply through calendar 2026.
- Capacity expansion in Thailand and Japan is intended to support higher-volume production.
- A new high-power laser for an AI infrastructure customer was identified as a notable product development.
Management priorities
- Expand Thailand cleanroom and Japan wafer-fab capacity.
- Qualify and ramp new cloud customer programs through FY26.
- Develop high-power CW lasers and expand photodetector-array offerings.
- Advance 800 Gbps and 1.6 Tbps transceiver products.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$756.17Current
$50Low
$619.28Average
$1,270High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 7, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 10, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2021 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 6, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 11, 2017 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $756.17. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $1,250 | $822.51 | +65.3% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,232 | $1,085.42 | +62.9% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,220 | $973.49 | +61.3% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Gianmarco Conti | $1,200 | $914.76 | +58.7% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $895 | +45.5% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $820 | $940.49 | +8.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $1,036 | $878.27 | +37.0% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $1,040 | $864.91 | +37.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,140 | $820.59 | +50.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $1,000 | $820.59 | +32.2% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,200 | $974.57 | +58.7% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $1,000 | $944.28 | +32.2% | May 7, 2026 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $960 | $933.42 | +27.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $1,014 | $932.5 | +34.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $994.56 | +45.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $1,200 | $994.56 | +58.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $994.56 | +19.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,100 | $976.18 | +45.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $1,270 | $902.32 | +68.0% | May 1, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $1,000 | $880.92 | +32.2% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $710 | $890.57 | -6.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $800 | $757.92 | +5.8% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $660 | -31.2% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $645 | $537.02 | -14.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $475 | $465.54 | -37.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $445.2 | -39.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $483.59 | -36.5% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $550 | $435.1 | -27.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $525 | $435.1 | -30.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $550 | $435.1 | -27.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $435.1 | -25.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $411 | -53.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $354.02 | -47.1% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $420 | $354.01 | -44.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $365 | $331.62 | -51.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $348.26 | -39.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $470 | $392.88 | -37.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $316.15 | -59.8% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $380 | $302.98 | -49.7% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $298.12 | -53.7% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $290 | $255.59 | -61.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $232.86 | -66.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ruben Roy | $220 | $188.36 | -70.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | George Notter | $240 | $188.36 | -68.3% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $235 | $188.36 | -68.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $190 | $188.36 | -74.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $200.13 | -70.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $162.95 | -74.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $145 | $159.76 | -80.8% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $165 | $151.38 | -78.2% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $135 | $119.66 | -82.1% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $125 | $119.66 | -83.5% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $80 | $64.42 | -89.4% | May 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $75 | $64.42 | -90.1% | May 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $82 | $73.63 | -89.2% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Richard Shannon | $70 | $52.15 | -90.7% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Dave Kang | $50 | $52.3 | -93.4% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $54 | $45.53 | -92.9% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mike Genovese | $69 | $52.18 | -90.9% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $70 | $52.26 | -90.7% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Vivek Arya | $50 | $52.17 | -93.4% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $40 | $45.53 | -94.7% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $70 | $59.09 | -90.7% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $80 | $44.11 | -89.4% | May 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $38 | $44.11 | -95.0% | May 7, 2024 |
| Needham | Alex Henderson | $50 | $49.89 | -93.4% | Feb 9, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $50.59 | -91.5% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $54.45 | -91.3% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $89.6 | -87.0% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $89.6 | -84.9% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $93.43 | -86.5% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $85.02 | -87.4% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $77.18 | -86.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $88.96 | -85.5% | May 5, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $118 | $89.76 | -84.4% | May 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $83.11 | -87.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $84.46 | -86.8% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $120 | $91.49 | -84.1% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $91 | $93.34 | -88.0% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fahad Najam | $93 | $81.98 | -87.7% | Oct 5, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Rod Hall | $86 | $80.06 | -88.6% | Jun 1, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Thomas Diffely | $95 | $67.43 | -87.4% | May 13, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | John Marchetti | $87 | $68.24 | -88.5% | May 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LITE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing. The company's reach extends across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Lumentum operates through two principal business units: Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers. The OpComms segment develops and supplies components, modules, and subsystems essential for transmitting video, audio, and data across high-capacity fiber optic networks. Its offerings encompass a wide range of products, including tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules, alongside various tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators. Furthermore, this segment provides critical transport products such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs), optical amplifiers, and optical channel monitors.…
Historical context
All LITE earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFY Infosys Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -4.8% | -6.6% | Infosys trims growth outlook as AI revenue and deal wins accelerate |
| SSNC SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | +2.8% | SS&C raises 2026 outlook as AI and tokenization support growth |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.7% | +9.7% | Roper raises DEPS outlook as AI adoption expands across portfolio |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -2.0% | -0.9% | VeriSign reports record registrations as renewal mix becomes a key watchpoint |
| TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.8% | -27.7% | TTM Technologies Q3: Record Growth, Higher Investment, More Deal Risk |
| NOK Nokia Oyj | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +25.0% | -14.8% | Nokia Q3: AI and cloud growth lifts margins as cash flow stays negative |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-30T00:03:07.291072+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T03:30:43.712080+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T03:30:43.709282+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.