Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish932.1%
Neutral1553.6%
Bearish414.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Lennox International Inc. · LII · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Lennox: Record Q3 margin, but lower outlook keeps demand risks in focus
The quarter supports a mixed view: margin execution and product initiatives provide evidence of resilience, but the lowered outlook, residential volume pressure, and inventory normalization risk weaken the case for sustained earnings growth without improved demand and destocking progress.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$12.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$6.98
Consensus $6.82
EPS surprise
+2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.43B
Consensus $1.47B
Revenue surprise
-3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-10.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-9.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.5%
Up to 20 sessions
LIISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LII FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LII fall 10.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in LII's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for LII after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the outlook shifted from raised guidance to lowered guidance. The latest analysis also emphasized a 5% revenue decline, record Q3 segment margin, continued inventory normalization efforts, and the expected contribution of recent acquisitions and joint-venture products.
Guidance delta
Management lowered full-year 2025 outlook to a 1% sales decline and adjusted EPS of $22.75-$23.25.
Key takeaways
- Revenue declined 5% year over year, while Q3 segment margin reached a record 21.7%.
- Adjusted EPS was $6.98, described in the analysis as a new quarterly high and up 4% year over year.
- Management expects inventory to normalize by Q2 2026 after continued destocking pressure.
- Heat pumps, emergency replacement, parts and accessories, and joint-venture products remain the main growth vectors.
- The central tension is stronger margins against weaker residential demand and a lowered full-year outlook.
Management priorities
- Scale Samsung ductless products and continue joint-venture product launches
- Integrate Durodyne and Subco to increase parts and accessories attachment
- Expand distribution and digital dealer tools
- Use innovation and training centers to accelerate product development
- Leverage the Saltillo commercial factory for productivity gains
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$361.15Current
$238Low
$488.7Average
$675High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2024 | |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 19, 2015 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2015 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Jul 23, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $361.15. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Tusa | $424 | $367.78 | +17.4% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $444 | $366.04 | +22.9% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $375 | $376.35 | +3.8% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $547 | $417.45 | +51.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $469 | $417.4 | +29.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $650 | $544.11 | +80.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $517.62 | +52.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $517.62 | +66.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $597 | $517.62 | +65.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $517.88 | +48.1% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $495.08 | +24.6% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $592 | $495.08 | +63.9% | Jan 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $534 | $490.76 | +47.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $482.84 | +74.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $572 | $487.49 | +58.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $487.49 | +45.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $563 | $520.04 | +55.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $667 | $519.85 | +84.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $503.89 | +46.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $680 | $505.78 | +88.3% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $525 | $500.01 | +45.4% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $560 | $506.75 | +55.1% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Northcoast Research | Aaron Reed | $525 | $501.17 | +45.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $498.17 | +53.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $545 | $493.07 | +50.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $475 | $497.73 | +31.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $493.07 | +93.8% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $523.94 | +56.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $575 | $550.63 | +59.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $676 | $653.51 | +87.2% | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $600 | $509.14 | +66.1% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $580 | $582.93 | +60.6% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $675 | $609.74 | +86.9% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $619 | $609.74 | +71.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $624 | $609.74 | +72.8% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $600 | $606.64 | +66.1% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $648 | $604.04 | +79.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $610 | $557.19 | +68.9% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $570 | $535.61 | +57.8% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $520 | $467.85 | +44.0% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $510 | $467.85 | +41.2% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $515 | $467.93 | +42.6% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $481 | $465.99 | +33.2% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $460 | $377.3 | +27.4% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $391 | $357.42 | +8.3% | Aug 17, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $260.76 | -16.9% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $241.69 | -28.6% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $235.91 | -18.6% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $265 | $246.48 | -26.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $248.64 | -22.7% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $220.52 | -36.9% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $243.88 | -25.8% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $243.99 | -29.4% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $239.53 | -31.1% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $213.59 | -41.9% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $217.46 | -38.5% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $216.92 | -19.1% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $219.62 | -36.3% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $202.46 | -36.0% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $188.29 | -47.4% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $238 | $211.56 | -34.1% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $202.49 | -33.5% | May 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $227.32 | -37.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $227.72 | -23.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $235.11 | -28.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $238.94 | -33.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $254 | $226.75 | -29.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $300 | $262.16 | -16.9% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Saravana Raghavan | $331 | $324.93 | -8.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $310 | $300.86 | -14.2% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $302 | $339.45 | -16.4% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $300 | $344.9 | -16.9% | Jun 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LII the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLennox International Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions. The company operates across three divisions: Residential Heating & Cooling, Commercial Heating & Cooling, and Refrigeration. Its Residential Heating & Cooling division supplies homeowners with systems like furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps, along with indoor air quality products, comfort controls, and replacement components, catering to both new construction and existing residential upgrades.…
Historical context
All LII earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Get the LII recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T22:10:42.439243+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T22:10:42.436075+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.