Lennox International Inc. · LII · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Lennox Maintains 2025 Outlook Amid Pre-Buy and Margin Risks

The transcript supports a measured growth case for Lennox: low-GWP product adoption, emergency replacement demand, added Saltillo capacity and digital initiatives provide identifiable drivers, but the near-term outlook is constrained by pre-buy effects, flat residential volume and flat margin guidance.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $12.36B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $4.12
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.22B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -8.8% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -8.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.3% Up to 20 sessions
LIISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from a raised 2024 outlook to a maintained 2025 outlook. The current analysis adds the quantified $125 million pre-buy headwind, flat Home Comfort Solutions volume and a greater emphasis on pricing execution, factory productivity and digital investment.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its 2025 outlook, with modest revenue growth, flat margins and EPS of $22-$23.5; this contrasts with the prior quarter's raised full-year 2024 guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Management described record 2024 results, including revenue above $5 billion and $1 billion of adjusted segment profit.
  • The 2025 outlook calls for modest revenue growth, flat margins and EPS of $22-$23.5.
  • A $125 million R-410A pre-buy is expected to shift demand from early 2025 into late 2024.
  • Low-GWP product mix, the emergency replacement program, Saltillo capacity and digital customer experience are the main growth levers.

Management priorities

  • Roll out 454B pricing across Home Comfort Solutions.
  • Scale the Saltillo factory and improve existing plant efficiency.
  • Invest in information systems, distribution, customer service and digital programs.
  • Continue disciplined M&A and leverage the AES integration.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LII EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3.16 Q1 '24 actual $3.47, beat Q2 '24 estimate $6.57 Q2 '24 actual $6.83, beat Q3 '24 estimate $6.00 Q3 '24 actual $6.68, beat Q2 '25 estimate $6.86 Q2 '25 actual $7.82, beat Q3 '25 estimate $6.82 Q3 '25 actual $6.98, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.75 Q4 '25 actual $4.45, miss Q1 '26 estimate $3.19 Q1 '26 actual $3.35, beat Q2 '26 estimate $7.67 Q2 '26 actual $7.72, beat Q3 '26 estimate $7.34 Q4 '26 estimate $5.49 Q1 '27 estimate $3.89
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish828.6%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish414.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$357.73Current
$238Low
$472.63Average
$667High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 15, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainOct 14, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral BuyDowngradeOct 14, 2026
Deutsche Bank Hold BuyDowngradeSep 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 30, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainApr 30, 2026
JP Morgan Underweight UnderweightMaintainJan 16, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform UnderperformUpgradeNov 13, 2025
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 27, 2025
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 17, 2025
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainMar 7, 2025
Keybanc Sector Weight OverweightDowngradeOct 15, 2024
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJun 21, 2024
William Blair Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJul 13, 2023
Credit Suisse Underperform UnderperformMaintainOct 28, 2022
Cowen & Co. Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJul 8, 2022
Vertical Research Sell HoldDowngradeJun 1, 2021
Seaport Global Neutral BuyDowngradeJul 21, 2020
Buckingham Research Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 8, 2019
Buckingham Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 8, 2019
Stifel Nicolaus Hold HoldMaintainApr 24, 2018
Stifel Hold HoldMaintainApr 24, 2018
Susquehanna Neutral PositiveDowngradeAug 15, 2016
Longbow Research Neutral BuyDowngradeNov 19, 2015
Nomura Neutral BuyDowngradeApr 21, 2015
MKM Partners Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 22, 2014
Global Hunter Securities Buy AccumulateMaintainJul 23, 2013
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $357.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesBrett Linzey$395$348.84 +10.4%Oct 15, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$390$350.13 +9.0%Oct 14, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Tusa$424$367.78 +18.5%Sep 24, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$444$366.04 +24.1%Sep 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyChristopher Snyder$375$376.35 +4.8%Sep 3, 2026
Goldman SachsJoe Ritchie$547$417.45 +52.9%Jul 31, 2026
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$469$417.4 +31.1%Jul 30, 2026
OppenheimerNoah Kaye$650$544.11 +81.7%Apr 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$550$517.62 +53.7%Apr 30, 2026
Vertical ResearchAnalyst unavailable$600$517.62 +67.7%Apr 30, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$597$517.62 +66.9%Apr 30, 2026
BNP ParibasAnalyst unavailable$535$517.88 +49.6%Apr 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$450$495.08 +25.8%Feb 1, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$592$495.08 +65.5%Jan 31, 2026
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$534$490.76 +49.3%Jan 29, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$630$482.84 +76.1%Jan 29, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$572$487.49 +59.9%Jan 29, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$525$487.49 +46.8%Jan 29, 2026
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$563$520.04 +57.4%Jan 15, 2026
BarclaysJulian Mitchell$667$519.85 +86.5%Jan 7, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$530$503.89 +48.2%Jan 5, 2026
BarclaysJulian Mitchell$680$505.78 +90.1%Dec 11, 2025
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$525$500.01 +46.8%Dec 4, 2025
UBSDamian Karas$560$506.75 +56.5%Oct 27, 2025
Northcoast ResearchAaron Reed$525$501.17 +46.8%Oct 27, 2025
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$555$498.17 +55.1%Oct 23, 2025
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$545$493.07 +52.3%Oct 23, 2025
Morgan StanleyChristopher Snyder$475$497.73 +32.8%Oct 23, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$700$493.07 +95.7%Oct 23, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$565$523.94 +57.9%Oct 17, 2025
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$575$550.63 +60.7%Oct 6, 2025
UBSDamian Karas$676$653.51 +89.0%Jul 28, 2025
OppenheimerNoah Kaye$600$509.14 +67.7%Apr 24, 2025
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$580$582.93 +62.1%Feb 3, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesBrett Linzey$675$609.74 +88.7%Oct 24, 2024
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$619$609.74 +73.0%Oct 24, 2024
BarclaysJulian Mitchell$624$609.74 +74.4%Oct 24, 2024
KeyBancJeffrey Hammond$600$606.64 +67.7%Oct 15, 2024
Robert W. BairdTimothy Wojs$648$604.04 +81.1%Oct 14, 2024
Robert W. BairdTimothy Wojs$610$557.19 +70.5%Jul 15, 2024
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$570$535.61 +59.3%Jul 9, 2024
Wells FargoJoseph O'Dea$520$467.85 +45.4%Apr 25, 2024
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$510$467.85 +42.6%Apr 25, 2024
KeyBancJeffrey Hammond$515$467.93 +44.0%Apr 10, 2024
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$481$465.99 +34.5%Apr 4, 2024
Mizuho SecuritiesBrett Linzey$460$377.3 +28.6%Oct 16, 2023
RBC CapitalDeane Dray$391$357.42 +9.3%Aug 17, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$300$260.76 -16.1%Feb 1, 2023
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$258$241.69 -27.9%Jan 6, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$294$235.91 -17.8%Jan 5, 2023
UBSDamian Karas$265$246.48 -25.9%Dec 15, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$279$248.64 -22.0%Dec 15, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$228$220.52 -36.3%Oct 3, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$268$243.88 -25.1%Sep 1, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$255$243.99 -28.7%Aug 1, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$249$239.53 -30.4%Aug 1, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$210$213.59 -41.3%Jul 18, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$222$217.46 -37.9%Jul 15, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$292$216.92 -18.4%Jul 13, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$230$219.62 -35.7%Jul 8, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$231$202.46 -35.4%Jun 29, 2022
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$190$188.29 -46.9%Jun 23, 2022
Morgan StanleyJoshua Pokrzywinski$238$211.56 -33.5%Jun 7, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$240$202.49 -32.9%May 24, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$225$227.32 -37.1%Apr 26, 2022
StephensAnalyst unavailable$275$227.72 -23.1%Apr 26, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$260$235.11 -27.3%Apr 26, 2022
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$242$238.94 -32.4%Apr 26, 2022
Morgan StanleyJoshua Pokrzywinski$254$226.75 -29.0%Apr 26, 2022
BarclaysJulian Mitchell$300$262.16 -16.1%Apr 5, 2022
Wells FargoSaravana Raghavan$331$324.93 -7.5%Dec 16, 2021
Goldman SachsJoe Ritchie$310$300.86 -13.3%Oct 26, 2021
Wolfe ResearchNigel Coe$302$339.45 -15.6%Jul 12, 2021
Vertical ResearchJeffrey Sprague$300$344.9 -16.1%Jun 1, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Lennox International Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions. The company operates across three divisions: Residential Heating & Cooling, Commercial Heating & Cooling, and Refrigeration. Its Residential Heating & Cooling division supplies homeowners with systems like furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps, along with indoor air quality products, comfort controls, and replacement components, catering to both new construction and existing residential upgrades.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-15T00:03:22.707476+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T14:00:42.848084+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T14:00:42.845244+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.