Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish828.6%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish414.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Lennox International Inc. · LII · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Lennox Maintains 2025 Outlook Amid Pre-Buy and Margin Risks
The transcript supports a measured growth case for Lennox: low-GWP product adoption, emergency replacement demand, added Saltillo capacity and digital initiatives provide identifiable drivers, but the near-term outlook is constrained by pre-buy effects, flat residential volume and flat margin guidance.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$12.36B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $4.12
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.22B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-8.8%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.3%
Up to 20 sessions
LIISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LII FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LII's -8.8% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in LII's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for LII after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from a raised 2024 outlook to a maintained 2025 outlook. The current analysis adds the quantified $125 million pre-buy headwind, flat Home Comfort Solutions volume and a greater emphasis on pricing execution, factory productivity and digital investment.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2025 outlook, with modest revenue growth, flat margins and EPS of $22-$23.5; this contrasts with the prior quarter's raised full-year 2024 guidance.
Key takeaways
- Management described record 2024 results, including revenue above $5 billion and $1 billion of adjusted segment profit.
- The 2025 outlook calls for modest revenue growth, flat margins and EPS of $22-$23.5.
- A $125 million R-410A pre-buy is expected to shift demand from early 2025 into late 2024.
- Low-GWP product mix, the emergency replacement program, Saltillo capacity and digital customer experience are the main growth levers.
Management priorities
- Roll out 454B pricing across Home Comfort Solutions.
- Scale the Saltillo factory and improve existing plant efficiency.
- Invest in information systems, distribution, customer service and digital programs.
- Continue disciplined M&A and leverage the AES integration.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$357.73Current
$238Low
$472.63Average
$667High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2024 | |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 19, 2015 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2015 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Jul 23, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $357.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $395 | $348.84 | +10.4% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $350.13 | +9.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Tusa | $424 | $367.78 | +18.5% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $444 | $366.04 | +24.1% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $375 | $376.35 | +4.8% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $547 | $417.45 | +52.9% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $469 | $417.4 | +31.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $650 | $544.11 | +81.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $517.62 | +53.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $517.62 | +67.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $597 | $517.62 | +66.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $517.88 | +49.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $495.08 | +25.8% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $592 | $495.08 | +65.5% | Jan 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $534 | $490.76 | +49.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $482.84 | +76.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $572 | $487.49 | +59.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $487.49 | +46.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $563 | $520.04 | +57.4% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $667 | $519.85 | +86.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $503.89 | +48.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $680 | $505.78 | +90.1% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $525 | $500.01 | +46.8% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $560 | $506.75 | +56.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Northcoast Research | Aaron Reed | $525 | $501.17 | +46.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $498.17 | +55.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $545 | $493.07 | +52.3% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $475 | $497.73 | +32.8% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $493.07 | +95.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $523.94 | +57.9% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $575 | $550.63 | +60.7% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $676 | $653.51 | +89.0% | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $600 | $509.14 | +67.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $580 | $582.93 | +62.1% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $675 | $609.74 | +88.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $619 | $609.74 | +73.0% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $624 | $609.74 | +74.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $600 | $606.64 | +67.7% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $648 | $604.04 | +81.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $610 | $557.19 | +70.5% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $570 | $535.61 | +59.3% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $520 | $467.85 | +45.4% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $510 | $467.85 | +42.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $515 | $467.93 | +44.0% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $481 | $465.99 | +34.5% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $460 | $377.3 | +28.6% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $391 | $357.42 | +9.3% | Aug 17, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $260.76 | -16.1% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $241.69 | -27.9% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $235.91 | -17.8% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $265 | $246.48 | -25.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $248.64 | -22.0% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $220.52 | -36.3% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $243.88 | -25.1% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $243.99 | -28.7% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $239.53 | -30.4% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $213.59 | -41.3% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $217.46 | -37.9% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $216.92 | -18.4% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $219.62 | -35.7% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $202.46 | -35.4% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $188.29 | -46.9% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $238 | $211.56 | -33.5% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $202.49 | -32.9% | May 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $227.32 | -37.1% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $227.72 | -23.1% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $235.11 | -27.3% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $238.94 | -32.4% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $254 | $226.75 | -29.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $300 | $262.16 | -16.1% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Saravana Raghavan | $331 | $324.93 | -7.5% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $310 | $300.86 | -13.3% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $302 | $339.45 | -15.6% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $300 | $344.9 | -16.1% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLennox International Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions. The company operates across three divisions: Residential Heating & Cooling, Commercial Heating & Cooling, and Refrigeration. Its Residential Heating & Cooling division supplies homeowners with systems like furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps, along with indoor air quality products, comfort controls, and replacement components, catering to both new construction and existing residential upgrades.…
Historical context
All LII earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | -2.0% | J.B. Hunt: Strong demand, but margin repair remains central |
| FAST Fastenal Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.3% | +1.1% | Fastenal Q3: Share Gains and Digital Adoption Lift Growth |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-15T00:03:22.707476+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T14:00:42.848084+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T14:00:42.845244+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.