Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold3 ratings
Bullish133.3%
Neutral266.7%
Bearish00.0%
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz · KSPI · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Kaspi.kz: Payments and ads grow as smartphones constrain marketplace
Kaspi.kz’s payments, advertising, e-Grocery and AI initiatives support a constructive operating story, but the quarter’s reported miss, lowered guidance sentiment and smartphone-related marketplace constraint make the near-term evidence mixed.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$17.86B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.72
Consensus $4.31
EPS surprise
-36.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.03B
Consensus $2.23B
Revenue surprise
-9.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.2%
Up to 20 sessions
KSPISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KSPI FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KSPI rise 3.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in KSPI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for KSPI after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added a smartphone supply constraint to marketplace growth, while management emphasized resilient payments, advertising growth, e-Grocery scaling, AI-enabled product enrichment and planned shareholder returns.
Guidance delta
Management’s guidance sentiment was lowered, with marketplace growth constrained by smartphone supply disruption; management expects stronger conditions in 2026.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted robust payments growth and continued QR adoption.
- Marketplace growth was constrained by a nationwide smartphone supply shortage, while ex-smartphone growth remained strong.
- Advertising revenue, e-Grocery and AI-enabled product enrichment were identified as growth areas.
- Management announced a $100 million ADS buyback program and discussed potential dividend resumption.
Management priorities
- Expand e-Grocery through additional dark stores.
- Roll out Pay-by-Palm and launch the Kaspi AI Assistant for merchants.
- Continue investing in delivery, marketing, payment options and user experience.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$93.16Current
$100Low
$117.4Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $93.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $106.46 | +23.4% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $95.64 | +7.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.4 | +2.0% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $76.17 | -6.6% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mikhail Butkov | $107 | $76.85 | +14.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nida Iqbal | $115 | $84.97 | +23.4% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $150 | $124.36 | +61.0% | May 29, 2024 |
Track every rating change on KSPI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offerings cater to both individual consumers and a diverse range of merchants. The company's operations are structured around three core platforms: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments Platform is designed to streamline transactions between customers and businesses. For consumers, it facilitates shopping payments, routine bill settlements, and peer-to-peer money transfers. For merchants, it enables them to accept payments both online and in-store, generate and manage invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor their sales performance. This platform also leverages proprietary data to inform strategic business decisions across various operational areas. The Marketplace Platform functions as an integrated hub, connecting online and physical retailers with consumers.…
Historical context
All KSPI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the KSPI recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T01:10:43.027466+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T01:10:43.024397+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.