Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish411.4%
Neutral2057.2%
Bearish1131.4%
The Kraft Heinz Company · KHC · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Kraft Heinz Lowers Outlook as Promotions Rise and Indonesia Lags
The current analysis supports a mixed outlook: brand renovation, U.S. share gains, and emerging-market growth are constructive, but lowered guidance, increased spending, and Indonesia execution issues weaken the near-term case.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$26.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.61
Consensus $0.58
EPS surprise
+4.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.24B
Consensus $6.25B
Revenue surprise
-0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.0%
Up to 20 sessions
KHCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KHC FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KHC fall 4.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in KHC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for KHC after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management shifted from maintained to lowered guidance, added promotional and other investment, and emphasized the planned 2026 separation while addressing Indonesia inventory and distribution.
Guidance delta
Management lowered its 2025 outlook amid weaker consumption expectations, while adding promotional, R&D, and headcount investment.
Key takeaways
- Management described a modest year-over-year recovery amid weaker consumer sentiment and inflation pressure.
- Taste Elevation was associated with U.S. market-share gains, while emerging markets—particularly Heinz—provided growth.
- The company plans to separate into two independent, investment-grade companies in the second half of 2026.
- Indonesia remained a challenge as Kraft Heinz rightsizes inventory and transitions to a new distributor.
Management priorities
- Continue brand renovation and targeted marketing around key consumer moments
- Rightsize Indonesia inventory and switch to a new distributor
- Maintain the separation timeline while focusing on operational efficiency for both entities
- Invest in emerging-market growth initiatives
- Test new promotional tactics, including cross-merchandising and e-commerce events, for 2026
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$22.19Current
$18Low
$31.41Average
$70High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Jun 3, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 4, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Feb 16, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 15, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 8, 2021 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 9, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 31, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2019 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Mar 29, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 26, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Negative | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 2, 2018 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Mar 15, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 7, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $22.19. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $32 | $24.73 | +44.2% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $24.96 | +17.2% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $24 | $24.82 | +8.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $23 | $25.74 | +3.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $25 | $25.3 | +12.7% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $24 | $22.94 | +8.2% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $21 | $23.33 | -5.4% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $23.28 | -0.9% | May 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $23.07 | +3.7% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $21.89 | -0.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $23.27 | -18.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $24.4 | +12.7% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Alexander Clapp | $23 | $24.39 | +3.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $24.32 | +12.7% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $24.72 | +3.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Scott Marks | $23 | $23.76 | +3.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Clapp | $24 | $24.24 | +8.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $24 | $24.02 | +8.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $24.45 | +21.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $24.58 | +8.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $25 | $24.6 | +12.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $25 | $24.38 | +12.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $25 | $24.38 | +12.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Baumgartner | $27 | $25.42 | +21.7% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.14 | +26.2% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $25.06 | +21.7% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $28 | $26.93 | +26.2% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $28 | $26.5 | +26.2% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $29 | $26.02 | +30.7% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Baumgartner | $29 | $26.54 | +30.7% | May 28, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $35 | $35.27 | +57.7% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Baumgartner | $41 | $33.89 | +84.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $35 | $33.73 | +57.7% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Leah Jordan | $32 | $33.73 | +44.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $41 | $34.06 | +84.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Stephen Powers | $40 | $35.24 | +80.3% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $34 | $33.77 | +53.2% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $34 | $32.32 | +53.2% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $42 | $35.92 | +89.3% | May 22, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $40 | $33.24 | +80.3% | Nov 14, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $44 | $39.34 | +98.3% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $70 | $38.19 | +215.5% | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $40.38 | +93.8% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $41 | $40.11 | +84.8% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $39.48 | +120.8% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $37.16 | +75.8% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $37 | $35.78 | +66.7% | Oct 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $43 | $33.03 | +93.8% | Oct 9, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $36.6 | +62.2% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $43 | $36.34 | +93.8% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Baumgartner | $48 | $38.43 | +116.3% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Kenneth Zaslow | $46 | $43.61 | +107.3% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $45 | $42.88 | +102.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $38 | $37.68 | +71.2% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $41 | $39.73 | +84.8% | Feb 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $40 | $37.39 | +80.3% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Laurent Grandet | $35 | $36.24 | +57.7% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Robert Dickerson | $40 | $36.24 | +80.3% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $41 | $35.74 | +84.8% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Axel Herlinghaus | $44 | $40.72 | +98.3% | May 5, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $42 | $39.59 | +89.3% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on KHC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Kraft Heinz Company, along with its subsidiaries, operates as a global entity focused on the manufacturing and marketing of a broad spectrum of food and beverage products. Its reach extends across key markets such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, as well as numerous other international territories. The company's diverse product offerings include popular condiments and sauces, a variety of cheese and dairy items, prepared meals, meat products, and refreshing beverages. Additionally, its portfolio features coffee, an assortment of healthy snacks, salad dressings, various spices and seasonings, and a range of other general grocery staples. Kraft Heinz employs a multi-faceted distribution strategy.…
Historical context
All KHC earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
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| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the KHC recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T23:50:41.331821+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T23:50:41.329036+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.