Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy50 ratings
Bullish3162.0%
Neutral1734.0%
Bearish24.0%
KeyCorp · KEY · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
KeyCorp Q2 2026: EPS Beats on Loan Growth, Guidance Raised, Clearwater UK Deal
KeyCorp delivered a second consecutive quarter of earnings beats, with Q2 2026 EPS of $0.44 (up 26% YoY) and revenue up 7% YoY, driven by robust commercial loan growth and expanding fee-based businesses. Management raised full-year revenue and net interest income guidance for the second straight quarter, targeting a net interest margin of 3.0-3.05% by year-end, and announced the strategic acquisition of Clearwater UK to extend its middle-market advisory franchise into Europe. Despite the beat, the market reaction was negative: the stock posted a 2.4% abnormal decline on the report session and continued to drift lower, reflecting analyst concerns about the NIM coming in below the 3% target, deposit growth assumptions, and reliance on private-equity-driven fee revenue. At $22.61, the stock trades at an 11% discount to the $25.44 consensus target, suggesting the market awaits proof that…
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$23.94B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationKeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank. Targeting both individual consumers and small to medium-sized businesses, the corporation extends a comprehensive suite of services. These offerings include various deposit accounts, investment solutions, personal financial planning and wellness programs, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity products, general lending, credit card services, treasury management, business advisory, wealth and asset management, and trust-related services. Moreover, the company furnishes middle-market clients with a robust selection of sophisticated banking and capital market products.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.44
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
+4.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.96B
Consensus $1.97B
Revenue surprise
-0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$22.61Current
$15Low
$21.66Average
$28High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Odeon Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 22, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2022 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 7, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 11, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Rafferty Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2016 |
| Rafferty | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 2, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2015 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 29, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2015 |
| iBERIA Capital Partners | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2014 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 15, 2013 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 15, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Stifel | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 28, 2013 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 23, 2013 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | Jan 9, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $22.61. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $28 | $22.8 | +23.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $22.95 | +10.6% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.95 | +1.7% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.42 | +19.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.02 | +19.4% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $23.21 | +10.6% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $23.02 | +6.1% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $27 | $21.66 | +19.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.94 | +6.1% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.67 | +6.1% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $19 | $21.01 | -16.0% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $26 | $22.51 | +15.0% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $23 | $21.14 | +1.7% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $25 | $21.64 | +10.6% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.4 | +10.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.39 | +10.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $21.37 | -20.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $20.98 | +6.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $22 | $21.04 | -2.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $23 | $20.06 | +1.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $21 | $16.92 | -7.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $16.84 | -16.0% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $18.45 | +1.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.45 | -2.7% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.88 | -2.7% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $18.89 | +6.1% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $14.87 | -24.8% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $18 | $14.12 | -20.4% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $20 | $17.35 | -11.5% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $18 | $17.25 | -20.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $16 | $17.4 | -29.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Keith Horowitz | $19 | $17.4 | -16.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $19 | $17.38 | -16.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $17 | $17.22 | -24.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $20 | $16.24 | -11.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Scott Siefers | $18 | $16.7 | -20.4% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Keith Horowitz | $19 | $15.94 | -16.0% | Aug 13, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $20 | $15.94 | -11.5% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stephens | Terry McEvoy | $18 | $15.77 | -20.4% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $17 | $15.46 | -24.8% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $15 | $13.95 | -33.7% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Scott Siefers | $17 | $14.39 | -24.8% | May 24, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $16 | $14.38 | -29.2% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $16 | $14.38 | -29.2% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Ken Usdin | $17 | $14.59 | -24.8% | Jan 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Keith Horowitz | $20 | $12.23 | -11.5% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $20 | $11.19 | -11.5% | Mar 24, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Matt O'Connor | $23 | $18.66 | +1.7% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.62 | +1.7% | May 31, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $20.5 | $19.31 | -9.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Odeon Capital Group LLC | Richard Bove | $21.5 | $20.5 | -4.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $20.82 | +19.4% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Matt O'Connor | $26.5 | $25.44 | +17.2% | Feb 18, 2022 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $32 | $26.2 | +41.5% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $26 | $23.4 | +15.0% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $29 | $23.14 | +28.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Stephens | Terry McEvoy | $26 | $23.65 | +15.0% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| KBW | David Konrad | $21 | $19.56 | -7.1% | Jul 6, 2021 |
Track every rating change on KEY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.5%
Up to 20 sessions
KEYSPY benchmark
Follow KEY with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q2 2026 EPS of $0.44 beat the consensus estimate of $0.42 by 4.2%, marking 26% YoY growth. Revenue was essentially in line at $1.96B versus the $1.97B estimate, a slight 0.3% miss. The net interest margin expanded to 2.89%, though analysts noted this fell short of management's 3.0%+ year-end target. Commercial loan growth remained robust, and fee-based revenue from investment banking, commercial payments, and wealth management supported the top line. Management raised full-year revenue and NII guidance and reported $340M in share repurchases for the quarter toward the $1.3B FY target. The Clearwater UK acquisition was announced as a strategic extension of KeyCorp's middle-market advisory capabilities. Wealth management AUM reached a record $74B, with management noting less than 10% penetration of the mass-affluent market.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year guidance for both revenue and net interest income, an upgrade from the already raised guidance issued in Q1 2026 when NII growth was lifted to 9-10%. This quarter, management additionally targeted a net interest margin of 3.0-3.05% by year-end, supported by $9B of low-yielding fixed-rate asset repricing expected to offset deposit-cost pressure in H2. The capex outlook remains increasing, with approximately $1B allocated to technology and operations for the year. The $1.3B share repurchase program continues, with $340M executed in Q2 following $400M in Q1.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $0.44 beat consensus by 4.2%, with 26% YoY growth and revenue up 7% YoY.
- Full-year revenue and NII guidance raised again, targeting NIM of 3.0-3.05% by year-end.
- Clearwater UK acquisition announced to extend middle-market advisory franchise into Europe.
- Record $74B wealth management AUM with under 10% mass-affluent market penetration.
- $340M in share repurchases in Q2 toward the $1.3B full-year target.
- $9B in low-yielding fixed-rate assets set to reprice, providing NII tailwinds in H2.
Management priorities
- Close the Clearwater UK acquisition in H2 2026.
- Continue disciplined share repurchases under the $1.3B program.
- Invest approximately $1B in technology and operations for the year.
- Expand mass-affluent wealth strategy and deepen payments capabilities.
- Maintain capital allocation discipline supporting loan growth and fee-based revenue.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesHIG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2BAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedHBAN · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Huntington Bancshares Q2 2026: Strong Organic Growth, EPS Miss on Deposit Cost Pressure
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-21T16:02:40.324528+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T20:31:50.156585+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T20:31:50.154374+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.