Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish621.4%
Neutral1346.4%
Bearish932.2%
Illinois Tool Works Inc. · ITW · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
ITW pairs 2026 growth guidance with margin and innovation focus
The supplied evidence supports a constructive but conditional view: ITW enters 2026 with resilient Q4 demand, record margins, improving innovation contribution, and a maintained confidence in its operating plan. The thesis depends on enterprise initiatives and Customer-Backed Innovation converting into continued margin expansion and growth while semiconductor demand improves; cyclical markets, costs, and macro conditions remain the main tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$76.84B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.72
Consensus $2.69
EPS surprise
+1.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.09B
Consensus $4.06B
Revenue surprise
+0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.0%
Up to 20 sessions
ITWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ITW FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ITW rise 5.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in ITW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ITW after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, the supplied analysis adds a stronger Q4 result, 2026 guidance, a 2.4% revenue contribution from Customer-Backed Innovation, higher planned internal investment, and a larger planned share repurchase. Management also highlighted recent semiconductor-related acquisition activity and openness to further selective deals.
Guidance delta
Management maintained a confident outlook and introduced 2026 guidance for 2%-4% revenue growth, 1%-3% organic growth, EPS of $11-$11.20, and about 100 basis points of margin expansion.
Key takeaways
- Q4 2025 revenue grew 4%, GAAP EPS rose 7% to $2.72, and operating margins reached a record.
- Customer-Backed Innovation contributed 2.4% of revenue; patent filings increased 9% in 2025.
- Management linked the 2026 outlook to enterprise initiatives, new products, semiconductor demand recovery, and internal investment.
- Strong cash generation supports planned 2026 investment and shareholder returns, while selective acquisitions remain possible.
Management priorities
- Accelerate Customer-Backed Innovation toward more than 3% of revenue by 2030
- Invest about $800 million in 2026 internal productivity and growth projects
- Expand enterprise initiatives and pursue selective high-quality acquisitions
- Continue sizable share repurchases and capital allocation
Follow ITW with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$257.28Current
$187Low
$255.88Average
$301High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 3, 2021 |
| CFRA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Northcoast Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2019 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 12, 2013 |
| Barrington Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $257.28. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $300 | $296.5 | +16.6% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $295.16 | +15.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $286 | $266.56 | +11.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $301 | $268.97 | +17.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $254.72 | +5.7% | May 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $255 | $255.47 | -0.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $258.01 | -1.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $275 | $293.57 | +6.9% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $290.33 | +8.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $290.71 | +10.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $278 | $278.91 | +8.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $270 | $278.91 | +4.9% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $278.91 | -1.7% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $259.07 | -10.6% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $245.75 | +6.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $244 | $246.98 | -5.2% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $247.12 | +3.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $247.48 | +0.3% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $245 | $245.75 | -4.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $255.75 | +15.8% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $265 | $259.22 | +3.0% | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $253.67 | +10.0% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $255.89 | -2.1% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $260 | $274.48 | +1.1% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $250 | $248.59 | -2.8% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $250 | $247.57 | -2.8% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $236 | $249.34 | -8.3% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $281 | $249.34 | +9.2% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $244 | $244.11 | -5.2% | May 1, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $250 | $262.94 | -2.8% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $303 | $262.67 | +17.8% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $183.33 | -33.1% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $206.61 | -25.8% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $204.9 | -27.3% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $195 | $193.4 | -24.2% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $185.64 | -35.1% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $182.99 | -28.1% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $204.12 | -29.3% | May 31, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $199.78 | -30.0% | May 24, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fuller | $243 | $201.77 | -5.6% | May 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $209.05 | -27.3% | May 4, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $208.85 | +1.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $192 | $204.2 | -25.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole DeBlase | $226 | $199.7 | -12.2% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $202 | $203.35 | -21.5% | Apr 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $200 | $206.43 | -22.3% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Jamie Cook | $284 | $245.63 | +10.4% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $235 | $232.65 | -8.7% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $260 | $224.16 | +1.1% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $253 | $223.32 | -1.7% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $243 | $223.8 | -5.6% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $260 | $230.68 | +1.1% | May 5, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ITW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationIllinois Tool Works Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of a wide array of industrial goods and specialized equipment. The company operates through seven distinct divisions: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM division supplies plastic and metal components, various fastening solutions, and integrated assemblies for automobiles, light-duty trucks, and other industrial applications. Its Food Equipment segment delivers commercial kitchen appliances for washing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing, alongside comprehensive kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems, and offers related maintenance and repair services.…
Historical context
All ITW earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
| PAYX Paychex, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.5% | -8.8% | Paychex maintains FY27 outlook as PEO and AI momentum strengthen |
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
Get the ITW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T22:06:08.560916+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T22:06:08.558081+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.