Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish621.4%
Neutral1346.4%
Bearish932.2%
Illinois Tool Works Inc. · ITW · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
ITW: Record Margin, Modest Growth and Construction Risks
ITW's earnings support a constructive but conditional operating thesis: modest demand growth and strong margin execution are visible, but the next phase depends on sustaining innovation and simplification benefits while navigating construction weakness, capex timing and tariff risk.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$75.64B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.81
Consensus $2.75
EPS surprise
+2.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.06B
Consensus $4.08B
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.8%
Up to 20 sessions
ITWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ITW FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ITW fall 4.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in ITW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ITW after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current quarter added record operating margin performance and reiterated the role of customer-backed innovation, product-line simplification and enterprise initiatives. Construction weakness remained a concern, while EPS guidance was narrowed and the broader revenue and margin framework was maintained.
Guidance delta
Overall guidance was maintained: revenue at 1%-3% growth and operating margin at 26%-27%; full-year EPS guidance was narrowed to $10.40-$10.50.
Key takeaways
- Revenue grew modestly, with 1% organic growth, while operating margin reached a record 27.4%.
- Automotive OEM, China EV content and Asia Pacific demand were highlighted as growth areas.
- Construction remained challenged, keeping demand and margin durability in focus.
- Management emphasized shareholder returns, including a 62nd consecutive dividend increase and more than $1.1 billion of buybacks.
- The central operating thesis remains margin expansion through customer-backed innovation, product-line simplification and enterprise initiatives.
Management priorities
- Expand customer-backed innovation toward the 2030 yield goal.
- Continue product-line simplification to improve portfolio focus and mix.
- Pursue further margin expansion toward the 2026 operating-margin target.
- Maintain dividend growth, share repurchases and selective M&A while keeping leverage near 2x EBITDA.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$262.92Current
$187Low
$255.88Average
$301High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 3, 2021 |
| CFRA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Northcoast Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2019 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 12, 2013 |
| Barrington Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $262.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $300 | $296.5 | +14.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $295.16 | +13.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $286 | $266.56 | +8.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $301 | $268.97 | +14.5% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $254.72 | +3.5% | May 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $255 | $255.47 | -3.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $258.01 | -3.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $275 | $293.57 | +4.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $290.33 | +6.5% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $290.71 | +8.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $278 | $278.91 | +5.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $270 | $278.91 | +2.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $278.91 | -3.8% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $259.07 | -12.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $245.75 | +4.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $244 | $246.98 | -7.2% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $247.12 | +0.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $247.48 | -1.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $245 | $245.75 | -6.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $255.75 | +13.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $265 | $259.22 | +0.8% | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $253.67 | +7.6% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $255.89 | -4.2% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $260 | $274.48 | -1.1% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $250 | $248.59 | -4.9% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $250 | $247.57 | -4.9% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $236 | $249.34 | -10.2% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $281 | $249.34 | +6.9% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $244 | $244.11 | -7.2% | May 1, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $250 | $262.94 | -4.9% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $303 | $262.67 | +15.2% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $183.33 | -34.6% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $206.61 | -27.4% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $204.9 | -28.9% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $195 | $193.4 | -25.8% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $185.64 | -36.5% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $182.99 | -29.6% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $204.12 | -30.8% | May 31, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $199.78 | -31.5% | May 24, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fuller | $243 | $201.77 | -7.6% | May 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $209.05 | -28.9% | May 4, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $208.85 | -0.7% | May 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $192 | $204.2 | -27.0% | May 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole DeBlase | $226 | $199.7 | -14.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $202 | $203.35 | -23.2% | Apr 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $200 | $206.43 | -23.9% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Jamie Cook | $284 | $245.63 | +8.0% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $235 | $232.65 | -10.6% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $260 | $224.16 | -1.1% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $253 | $223.32 | -3.8% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $243 | $223.8 | -7.6% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $260 | $230.68 | -1.1% | May 5, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ITW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationIllinois Tool Works Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of a wide array of industrial goods and specialized equipment. The company operates through seven distinct divisions: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM division supplies plastic and metal components, various fastening solutions, and integrated assemblies for automobiles, light-duty trucks, and other industrial applications. Its Food Equipment segment delivers commercial kitchen appliances for washing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing, alongside comprehensive kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems, and offers related maintenance and repair services.…
Historical context
All ITW earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the ITW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T15:30:44.520179+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T15:30:44.517290+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.