Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral621.4%
Bearish621.4%
International Paper Company · IP · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
International Paper Q1 2026: Box Volumes Outpace Industry as EBITDA Guidance Cut
International Paper reported Q1 FY2026 EPS of $0.15, edging the $0.147 estimate, while revenue of $5.97B narrowly missed the $6.02B consensus. Shares fell 10.4% on the report session before recovering roughly 10% in subsequent trading. Management lowered full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance from $3.5-$3.7B to $3.2-$3.5B, citing inflation, freight, and weather headwinds. Despite the cut, operational metrics were constructive: North American box volumes grew 2.5% YoY against an industry decline, cost-out actions have generated over $200M in run-rate savings, and the NORPAC acquisition plus accelerated capital spending are strengthening the asset base. The planned separation into North America and EMEA entities continues to progress, and a $1.1B divestiture of the Global Cellulose Fibers business reduced debt by $660M.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$22.58B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.15
Consensus $0.15
EPS surprise
+2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.97B
Consensus $6.02B
Revenue surprise
-0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-9.4%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-10.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+10.0%
Up to 20 sessions
IPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IP FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IP fall 9.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in IP's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for IP after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
EPS of $0.15 beat the $0.147 estimate by 2.3%, while revenue of $5.97B missed the $6.02B estimate by 0.7%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised down from $3.5-$3.7B to $3.2-$3.5B. North American box volumes grew 2.5% YoY, outpacing an industry decline by approximately 3 percentage points. The company acquired the NORPAC paper mill in Longview, WA, expanding lightweight containerboard capacity with a high-teens ROI expected. The Global Cellulose Fibers business was sold for $1.1B, with $660M used to pay down debt, and a $280M one-time tax refund further boosted free cash flow. Cost-out actions have now produced over $200M in run-rate savings with 31 facility closures.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered from $3.5-$3.7B to $3.2-$3.5B, a reduction of approximately $300M at the midpoint. Management attributed the revision to inflation, freight costs, and weather-related disruptions, while noting pricing improvements and cost-out progress as partial offsets. Despite the lower range, management expressed confidence in second-half improvement driven by reliability investments, the Riverdale conversion completing in Q2, and continued execution of the 80/20 strategy.
Key takeaways
- North American box volumes grew 2.5% YoY, outpacing the industry's decline by ~3 percentage points
- Accelerated capital spending (~50% more per facility) and the NORPAC acquisition aim to improve reliability and cost position
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance revised down to $3.2-$3.5B from $3.5-$3.7B
- Cost-out actions have generated over $200M in run-rate savings and 31 facility closures
- Macro headwinds including inflation, freight, energy, and weather remain significant pressures
Management priorities
- Complete the Riverdale paper-machine conversion by Q2 2026
- Execute remaining footprint optimization and cost-out actions
- Proceed with the planned separation into independent North America and EMEA companies
- Pursue additional bolt-on acquisitions aligned with strategic pillars
- Maintain focus on the 80/20 approach to drive value
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$35.75Current
$35Low
$52.94Average
$80High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 14, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2015 |
| Dundee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $35.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $31.97 | -2.1% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $41.32 | +28.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $52 | $41.25 | +45.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.29 | +31.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.15 | +28.7% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $43.15 | +37.1% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hillary Cacanando | $50 | $43.15 | +39.9% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $42.41 | +70.6% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $46 | $37.36 | +28.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.67 | +17.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.76 | +9.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $48 | $36.47 | +34.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.57 | +11.9% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.53 | +67.8% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $48 | $42.61 | +34.3% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $44 | $40.32 | +23.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $39 | +51.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $40 | $39 | +11.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $51 | $42.39 | +42.7% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $40.52 | +39.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $55 | $39.06 | +53.8% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $37.67 | +23.1% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $57 | $38.63 | +59.4% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $38.63 | +0.7% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $57.8 | $46.64 | +61.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.08 | +48.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $44 | $45.88 | +23.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.96 | +53.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $47.72 | +65.0% | May 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $60 | $44.27 | +67.8% | May 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $66 | $55.77 | +84.6% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $57 | $48.08 | +59.4% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $52 | $46.12 | +45.5% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $56 | $45.59 | +56.6% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $45 | $46.28 | +25.9% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $52 | $43.25 | +45.5% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $52 | $44.04 | +45.5% | May 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $41 | $44.4 | +14.7% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $57 | $42.1 | +59.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $43 | $35.8 | +20.3% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $43 | $34.34 | +20.3% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Joseph Altobello | $70 | $34.49 | +95.8% | Aug 15, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $39 | $33.01 | +9.1% | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $35 | $32.87 | -2.1% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.7 | +11.9% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $47 | $41.92 | +31.5% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.95 | +62.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $56 | $47.18 | +56.6% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Cleveland Rueckert | $43 | $47.83 | +20.3% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| BNP Paribas | Justin Jordan | $60 | $51.07 | +67.8% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $80 | $55.91 | +123.8% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $75 | $58.61 | +109.8% | Jun 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific Rim, Asia, and various other regions across the Americas. The company's business activities are structured into two principal divisions: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment is dedicated to producing a diverse range of containerboards, which encompass linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft.…
Historical context
All IP earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.5% | -1.0% | Carlisle Q3: Reroofing Holds Up as Price-Cost Balance Improves |
| MAS Masco Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.7% | +1.2% | Masco raises outlook as North American plumbing leads growth |
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T23:21:38.474598+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T23:21:38.471837+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.