Imperial Oil Limited · IMO · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Imperial Oil posts strong cash generation as downstream guidance is lowered

Imperial Oil's long-term case rests on strong cash generation, lower-cost oil-sands growth, and higher-margin renewable diesel. Near-term execution risks remain in downstream throughput, rail logistics, turnarounds, and technology projects.

Reported Before market openAMEXEnergy $66.78B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.27 Consensus $2.99
EPS surprise +9.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $11.31B Consensus $10.92B
Revenue surprise +3.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.6% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -0.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +0.7% Up to 20 sessions
IMOSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about IMO FY2026 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IMO rise 0.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in IMO's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for IMO after FY2026 Q2 earnings.

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management lowered downstream throughput guidance by approximately 6% as it prioritizes renewable diesel and addresses rail constraints. It also described accelerated NCIB repurchases, higher capex for technology and recovery projects, and a restructuring program expected to reduce cash operating expenses by $150 million by 2028.

Guidance delta

Downstream throughput guidance was lowered by approximately 6%; management maintained confidence in achieving a $18-per-barrel unit-cost target for Kearl and Cold Lake by 2027.

Key takeaways

  • Strong cash generation and a 31-year record of consecutive dividend growth remain central to the shareholder-return story.
  • Upstream production was affected by turnarounds and weather, while management reiterated its long-term goal to double operated oil-sands production.
  • Renewable diesel, enhanced bitumen recovery, and secondary recovery projects are the main operational growth initiatives.
  • Rail congestion and lower downstream guidance temper an otherwise confident outlook.

Management priorities

  • Ramp renewable diesel output and evaluate additional diesel and jet production.
  • Advance enhanced bitumen recovery and secondary recovery projects, including flotation columns.
  • Complete the rail-yard expansion and continue planned turnarounds.
  • Accelerate NCIB repurchases while evaluating flexibility for a special incremental buyback.

Follow IMO with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
IMO EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.55 Q4 '23 actual $1.81, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.55 Q1 '24 actual $1.65, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.36 Q2 '24 actual $1.52, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.50 Q3 '24 actual $1.67, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.22 Q2 '25 actual $1.34, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.44 Q3 '25 actual $1.57, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.36 Q4 '25 actual $1.41, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.73 Q1 '26 actual $1.41, miss Q2 '26 estimate $2.99 Q2 '26 actual $3.27, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.43 Q3 '26 actual $3.65, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.96 Q1 '27 estimate $4.02 Q2 '27 estimate $3.92 Q3 '27 estimate $4.32
Show less

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold21 ratings
Bullish419.0%
Neutral942.9%
Bearish838.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$138.1Current
$42.97Low
$44.99Average
$47High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Mkts Underperform Sector PerformDowngradeFeb 23, 2026
RBC Capital Underperform Sector PerformDowngradeFeb 23, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform OutperformDowngradeDec 15, 2025
TD Securities Sell HoldDowngradeSep 30, 2025
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeJul 23, 2025
Show 16 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $138.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyDevin McDermott$42.97$40.78 -68.9%Jan 25, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesDoug Leggate$47$38.23 -66.0%Jan 10, 2022

Track every rating change on IMO the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the discovery, extraction, and commercialization of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. The Upstream segment is dedicated to exploring for and producing various hydrocarbons, including crude oil, natural gas, synthetic oil, and bitumen. As of December 31, 2021, this division reported 386 million oil-equivalent barrels in proven undeveloped reserves. The Downstream segment oversees the transportation and refinement of crude oil, the blending of refined petroleum products, and their subsequent distribution and marketing. It employs a diverse transportation network, including contracted and common carrier pipelines, as well as rail, to move crude oil to its refineries.…

Historical context

All IMO earnings
+5.5%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Energy peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
CVX Chevron Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +8.4% +1.8% Chevron posts strong Q3 as production, cash flow and AI value rise
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.7% +2.2% ExxonMobil Highlights Refining, LNG and Cash Returns in Q3
CCJ Cameco Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -101.4% -7.9% Cameco keeps nuclear-growth thesis intact as Key Lake outage weighs
BP BP p.l.c. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +22.6% +0.1% BP Q3: Strong profit, lower debt, safety risks persist
FSLR First Solar, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.5% -1.4% First Solar: Margin gains offset lower volume outlook
SHEL Shell plc FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +7.2% +2.4% Shell pairs strong Q3 with LNG expansion and portfolio deals

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Beat on EPS

Missed on EPS

Get the IMO recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T20:10:26.726495+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-05T01:23:14.965082+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T08:50:43.312217+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T08:50:43.309561+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.