Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold21 ratings
Bullish419.0%
Neutral942.9%
Bearish838.1%
Imperial Oil Limited · IMO · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Imperial Oil: Strong cash flow offsets lower Q1 net income
The quarter provides mixed evidence for a durable growth thesis: operating output, cash generation, technology projects, and capital returns were supportive, but lower net income, commodity realizations, operational downtime, and project execution remain important counterweights.
Reported Before market openAMEXEnergy
$66.78B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.41
Consensus $1.73
EPS surprise
-18.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.95B
Consensus $8.61B
Revenue surprise
+3.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.0%
Up to 20 sessions
IMOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IMO FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IMO fall 4.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in IMO's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for IMO after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Production was modestly higher and downstream refining ran at 88% capacity, while net income fell because of a $143 million after-tax mark-to-market incentive compensation charge and lower upstream realizations. Management also emphasized progress on recovery technology, SA-SAGD, renewable diesel, and ExxonMobil capability-center integration.
Guidance delta
No new guidance was provided in the transcript analysis.
Key takeaways
- Upstream production increased modestly, while downstream refining operated at 88% capacity.
- Cash flow from operations exceeded $1.2 billion, but net income declined after a $143 million after-tax incentive compensation charge and lower upstream realizations.
- Management highlighted EBRT, Kearl secondary recovery, Cold Lake SA-SAGD, renewable diesel, and restructuring initiatives.
- The dividend increased to $0.87 per share, and the Normal Course Issuer Bid is expected to be renewed in June.
Management priorities
- Advance the EBRT pilot and Kearl secondary recovery project.
- Ramp Cold Lake SA-SAGD capacity, including the Mahihkan project slated for 2029.
- Execute the Kearl and Strathcona turnarounds.
- Integrate with ExxonMobil global capability centers and develop digital infrastructure and logistics flexibility.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$138.1Current
$42.97Low
$44.99Average
$47High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital Mkts | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Feb 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Mkt Perform | Upgrade | Apr 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2024 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Nov 2, 2023 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 29, 2023 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 8, 2022 |
| AltaCorp Capital | Sector Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 7, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 28, 2018 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Nov 12, 2018 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 16, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 23, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 19, 2016 |
| UBS | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 24, 2015 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2014 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $138.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $42.97 | $40.78 | -68.9% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $47 | $38.23 | -66.0% | Jan 10, 2022 |
Track every rating change on IMO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationImperial Oil Limited (IMO) is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the discovery, extraction, and commercialization of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. The Upstream segment is dedicated to exploring for and producing various hydrocarbons, including crude oil, natural gas, synthetic oil, and bitumen. As of December 31, 2021, this division reported 386 million oil-equivalent barrels in proven undeveloped reserves. The Downstream segment oversees the transportation and refinement of crude oil, the blending of refined petroleum products, and their subsequent distribution and marketing. It employs a diverse transportation network, including contracted and common carrier pipelines, as well as rail, to move crude oil to its refineries.…
Historical context
All IMO earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX Chevron Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.4% | +1.8% | Chevron posts strong Q3 as production, cash flow and AI value rise |
| XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.7% | +2.2% | ExxonMobil Highlights Refining, LNG and Cash Returns in Q3 |
| CCJ Cameco Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -101.4% | -7.9% | Cameco keeps nuclear-growth thesis intact as Key Lake outage weighs |
| BP BP p.l.c. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.6% | +0.1% | BP Q3: Strong profit, lower debt, safety risks persist |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.5% | -1.4% | First Solar: Margin gains offset lower volume outlook |
| SHEL Shell plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +7.2% | +2.4% | Shell pairs strong Q3 with LNG expansion and portfolio deals |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the IMO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T17:40:42.068906+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T17:40:42.065932+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.