Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish3391.7%
Neutral38.3%
Bearish00.0%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · ICE · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
ICE: Record Q3 performance with AI investment and regulatory risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating read: recurring revenue, exchange and data activity, AI-enabled automation, and mortgage-platform initiatives provide multiple growth drivers. The thesis is tempered by uncertainty over incremental AI-driven volumes, regulatory exposure from Polymarket and tokenized collateral, seasonal mortgage pressure, and competition.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$84.29B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.71
Consensus $1.60
EPS surprise
+6.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.01B
Consensus $2.41B
Revenue surprise
+24.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.4%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.9%
Up to 20 sessions
ICESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ICE FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ICE fall 1.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in ICE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ICE after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added emphasis on ICE Aurora AI automation, a Polymarket strategic data agreement, generative-AI sentiment datasets, tokenized collateral, and continued data-center investment. Management maintained guidance while identifying seasonal and regulatory headwinds.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management reaffirmed Q4 guidance while noting seasonal headwinds.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted record Q3 performance, recurring revenue growth, and EPS growth.
- ICE Aurora is being scaled for workflow automation and product development.
- The Polymarket data partnership broadens the offering but adds regulatory questions.
- Management plans more data-center capacity, AI investment, and mortgage-platform modernization.
- Capital allocation returned cash to shareholders and reduced leverage, according to the supplied analysis.
Management priorities
- Scale ICE Aurora AI automation across internal processes and client solutions.
- Roll out ICE Risk Model 2 for global clearing houses with tokenized collateral.
- Expand data-center capacity for AI workloads and network growth.
- Broaden Polymarket data distribution and explore event-contract listings.
- Modernize mortgage platforms with AI tools.
Follow ICE with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$150.15Current
$84Low
$165.94Average
$218High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Outperform | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 21, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 19, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 6, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 10, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 20, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 21, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 30, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 4, 2013 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 4, 2013 |
| BGB Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 9, 2012 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 9, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $150.15. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $151.47 | +5.9% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O\'Shaughnessy | $218 | $160.7 | +45.2% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $178 | $154.55 | +18.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $190 | $137.61 | +26.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $163 | $135.76 | +8.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $133.08 | +19.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $190 | $137.57 | +26.5% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $135.26 | +38.5% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $122.91 | +19.9% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $140.34 | +17.9% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $205 | $152.94 | +36.5% | May 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $162.04 | +40.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $187 | $158.98 | +24.5% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $188 | $163.71 | +25.2% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $165.82 | +21.9% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $200 | $169.5 | +33.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $168.29 | +28.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $173.19 | +19.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $195 | $166.69 | +29.9% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $182 | $161.92 | +21.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $165.04 | +29.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $180 | $166.53 | +19.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O\'Shaughnessy | $211 | $166.5 | +40.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $160.3 | +15.9% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $148.52 | +21.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $201 | $161.98 | +33.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $163.82 | +25.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O'Shaughnessy | $185 | $162.57 | +23.2% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Craig Siegenthaler | $175 | $160.92 | +16.6% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $200 | $158.62 | +33.2% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $167 | $136.89 | +11.2% | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $142 | $136.88 | -5.4% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $158 | $136.7 | +5.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $148 | $128.41 | -1.4% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $108.33 | +11.9% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $107.24 | -20.1% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $107.05 | -13.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Arvind Ramnani | $84 | $93.41 | -44.1% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $116 | $93.41 | -22.7% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $124 | $106.31 | -17.4% | Aug 23, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Simon Clinch | $125 | $112.62 | -16.7% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $109.22 | -12.8% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $105.23 | -26.7% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $95.31 | -27.4% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $93.81 | -16.1% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $138 | $100.86 | -8.1% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $97.61 | -10.8% | May 20, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $96.72 | -22.1% | May 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $99.25 | -4.8% | May 6, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $100.14 | -10.8% | May 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $100.14 | -4.8% | May 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $101.63 | -5.4% | May 6, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Sean Horgan | $157 | $129.56 | +4.6% | Mar 10, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Ken Worthington | $155 | $129.38 | +3.2% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Daniel Fannon | $161 | $131.12 | +7.2% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Compass Point | Christopher Allen | $150 | $137.72 | -0.1% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Richard Repetto | $138 | $133 | -8.1% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Christopher Harris | $135 | $115.69 | -10.1% | Jun 23, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $141 | $115.69 | -6.1% | Jun 23, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $133 | $114.19 | -11.4% | May 3, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ICE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) manages a global network of regulated financial venues, encompassing exchanges, clearing houses, and listing platforms. These operations serve diverse markets, including commodities, financial instruments, fixed income products, and equities, with a geographical footprint spanning key financial centers such as the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada. The company's business is segmented into three core areas: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. Within its Exchanges segment, ICE oversees a robust network comprising 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses. These extensive marketplaces enable the listing, trading, and clearing of a wide spectrum of derivatives contracts and financial securities.…
Historical context
All ICE earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the ICE recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T20:50:40.539962+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T20:50:40.537013+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.