Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2447.1%
Neutral2243.1%
Bearish59.8%
International Business Machines Corporation · IBM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
IBM raises guidance as AI and hybrid cloud drive growth
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional thesis: IBM's AI, hybrid-cloud, automation, and mainframe momentum is translating into faster growth and higher guidance, but sustainability depends on converting the AI book into revenue, integrating acquisitions, and offsetting weakness in Transaction Processing.
Reported After market closeNYSETechnology
$207.90B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.65
Consensus $2.45
EPS surprise
+8.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$16.33B
Consensus $16.09B
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.9%
Up to 20 sessions
IBMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IBM FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IBM fall 0.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in IBM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for IBM after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis describes faster 7% year-over-year revenue growth, a higher $14 billion free-cash-flow target, a $9.5 billion AI book, and continued infrastructure momentum. It also adds greater emphasis on AI partnerships, quantum initiatives, and the need to convert booked AI demand into realized revenue.
Guidance delta
Raised: full-year revenue growth guidance remains above 5%, and free-cash-flow guidance increased to $14 billion.
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue accelerated 7% year over year, with sequential growth across all segments.
- AI and hybrid cloud remain the central growth engines; automation grew 22% and the AI book reached $9.5 billion.
- Infrastructure growth was supported by z17 mainframe and AI inferencing momentum, while Transaction Processing remained down.
Management priorities
- Expand Watson X, Granite AI models, and new AI services.
- Complete HashiCorp integration and extend Terraform automation offerings.
- Advance z17 AI inferencing, quantum initiatives, and AI consulting engagements.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$219.99Current
$112Low
$241.24Average
$380High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| HSBC | Reduce | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 11, 2023 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 6, 2023 |
| MoffettNathanson | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 23, 2020 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2017 |
| Pacific Crest | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | May 19, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 4, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 2, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2014 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2014 |
| J. Safra Sarasin | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2014 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2013 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Sep 9, 2013 |
| Topeka | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 21, 2012 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2012 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 18, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 4, 2012 |
| Oxen Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 14, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $219.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $235 | $233.51 | +6.8% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $225 | $211.99 | +2.3% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $203.62 | +4.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $205.77 | +22.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $205.77 | -13.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $205.77 | +19.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $210.5 | +4.6% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $270 | $210.66 | +22.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $288 | $213 | +30.9% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $260 | $213 | +18.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $235 | $212.67 | +6.8% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Abhishek Shukla | $175 | $214.05 | -20.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $280 | $210.5 | +27.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $220.02 | +59.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $290.23 | +33.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $290.23 | -13.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $303 | $295.3 | +37.7% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $252.22 | +21.4% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $320.42 | +59.1% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $350 | $297.8 | +59.1% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $290 | $252.97 | +31.8% | May 22, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $228.05 | +5.0% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $226.52 | +2.3% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $224.71 | +22.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $320 | $251.86 | +45.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $253.47 | +45.5% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $330 | $253.25 | +50.0% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $247.36 | +45.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $215 | $237.82 | -2.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $304.06 | +63.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $303.99 | +56.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $361 | $310.87 | +64.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Param Singh | $380 | $314.15 | +72.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $314.44 | +54.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $313.64 | +56.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $340 | $294.16 | +54.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $350 | $294.16 | +59.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $312.54 | +44.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $236 | $294.16 | +7.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $294.16 | +38.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $294.16 | +68.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $305.67 | +50.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $291.5 | +59.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $291.5 | +63.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $325 | $309.18 | +47.7% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $290.4 | +63.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $277.58 | +36.4% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $280.27 | +14.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $287.51 | -4.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $287.51 | +38.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $295 | $287.51 | +34.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $305 | $283.65 | +38.6% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $300 | $283.65 | +36.4% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $256 | $276.15 | +16.4% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| KGI Securities | Rob Chang | $242 | $229.33 | +10.0% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $170 | $229.33 | -22.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Wamsi Mohan | $250 | $217.63 | +13.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $260 | $216.94 | +18.2% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | James Schneider | $250 | $232.75 | +13.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $246 | $232.96 | +11.8% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $240 | $220.84 | +9.1% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Toni Sacconaghi | $185 | $220.97 | -15.9% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $200 | $203.53 | -9.1% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Needham | Matt Dezort | $256.79 | $130.75 | +16.7% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $205 | $184.02 | -6.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brian Essex | $185 | $174.95 | -15.9% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $200 | $173.25 | -9.1% | May 22, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $190 | $167.8 | -13.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $179 | $184.1 | -18.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $190 | $184.1 | -13.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $215 | $184.1 | -2.3% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $210 | $181.9 | -4.5% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $210 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $179 | $143.88 | -18.6% | Oct 26, 2023 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $152 | $137.9 | -30.9% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Toni Sacconaghi | $145 | $127.08 | -34.1% | Apr 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $143 | $130.42 | -35.0% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Joseph Foresi | $138 | $131.22 | -37.3% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $148 | $128.72 | -32.7% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| UBS | David Vogt Vogt | $112 | $121.63 | -49.1% | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $156 | $130.79 | -29.1% | Jul 31, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $138.13 | -29.5% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $138.32 | -36.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $136.82 | -30.9% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $166 | $135.96 | -24.5% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $157 | $129.15 | -28.6% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $118.06 | $43.07 | -46.3% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $148 | $126.56 | -32.7% | Apr 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $150 | $126.14 | -31.8% | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $140 | $130.15 | -36.4% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $155 | $137.15 | -29.5% | Feb 5, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $165 | $134.5 | -25.0% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $118 | $134.48 | -46.4% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Brian Essex | $144 | $134.48 | -34.5% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Katy Huberty | $147 | $129.35 | -33.2% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Brian Essex | $140 | $134.21 | -36.4% | Jan 15, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $165 | $133.39 | -25.0% | Oct 8, 2021 |
| Societe Generale | Richard Nguyen | $140 | $128.88 | -36.4% | Jul 20, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Ingo Wermann | $155 | $130.72 | -29.5% | Apr 21, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IBM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivers comprehensive technology solutions and services across the globe. The company's operations are structured into four primary segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software division provides hybrid cloud platforms and a range of software offerings, including Red Hat's enterprise open-source solutions. It also develops software for business automation, AIOps and management, integration, and application servers, in addition to data and artificial intelligence tools. This segment further supplies security software and services for threat, data, and identity management, and offers critical transaction processing software that supports essential on-premise workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail.…
Historical context
All IBM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
| SAIL SailPoint, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | -1.2% | SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.0% | -10.4% | Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.4% | +3.7% | DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the IBM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T19:41:02.250558+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T19:41:02.247803+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.