Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2447.1%
Neutral2243.1%
Bearish59.8%
International Business Machines Corporation · IBM · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
IBM’s FY2024 Growth Case Rests on Software, AI and Mainframe Demand
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional thesis: IBM’s software, AI and mainframe portfolio can support growth, while consulting conversion, acquisition execution and macro conditions determine how durable that growth is.
Reported After market closeNYSETechnology
$217.43B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $3.77
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $17.60B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+13.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+12.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
IBMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IBM FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove IBM's +13.0% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in IBM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for IBM after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds FY2024 results, a larger generative-AI book of business, record consulting signings and a 2025 outlook centered on software acceleration, the z17 launch and continued M&A.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook and highlighted 2025 targets of more than 5% revenue growth and $13.5 billion of free cash flow.
Key takeaways
- FY2024 revenue grew 3% year over year, while Q4 revenue increased 11%, led by software and Red Hat.
- Software represented about 45% of the business, with Red Hat, hybrid cloud and AI identified as key growth drivers.
- Free cash flow reached $12.7 billion for FY2024, with management targeting $13.5 billion in 2025.
- Consulting signings increased 23% in Q4, but conversion into revenue and the timing of acquisitions remain important watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Scale Red Hat, OpenShift and the watsonx AI suite.
- Launch the z17 mainframe and continue investment in AI infrastructure and quantum computing.
- Complete and integrate HashiCorp while expanding strategic partnerships and software capabilities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$230.78Previous close
$112Low
$240.3Average
$380High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| HSBC | Reduce | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 11, 2023 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 6, 2023 |
| MoffettNathanson | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 23, 2020 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2017 |
| Pacific Crest | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | May 19, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 4, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 2, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2014 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2014 |
| J. Safra Sarasin | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2014 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2013 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Sep 9, 2013 |
| Topeka | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 21, 2012 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2012 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 18, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 4, 2012 |
| Oxen Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 14, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $230.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Arvind Ramnani | $240 | $226.61 | +4.0% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $235 | $233.51 | +1.8% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $225 | $211.99 | -2.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $203.62 | -0.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $205.77 | +17.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $205.77 | -17.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $205.77 | +13.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $210.5 | -0.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $270 | $210.66 | +17.0% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $288 | $213 | +24.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $260 | $213 | +12.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $235 | $212.67 | +1.8% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Abhishek Shukla | $175 | $214.05 | -24.2% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $280 | $210.5 | +21.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $220.02 | +51.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $290.23 | +27.0% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $290.23 | -17.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $303 | $295.3 | +31.3% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $252.22 | +15.7% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $320.42 | +51.7% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $350 | $297.8 | +51.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $290 | $252.97 | +25.7% | May 22, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $228.05 | +0.1% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $226.52 | -2.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $224.71 | +17.0% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $320 | $251.86 | +38.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $253.47 | +38.7% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $330 | $253.25 | +43.0% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $247.36 | +38.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $215 | $237.82 | -6.8% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $304.06 | +56.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $303.99 | +49.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $361 | $310.87 | +56.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Param Singh | $380 | $314.15 | +64.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $314.44 | +47.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $313.64 | +49.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $340 | $294.16 | +47.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $350 | $294.16 | +51.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $312.54 | +37.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $236 | $294.16 | +2.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $294.16 | +31.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $294.16 | +60.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $305.67 | +43.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $291.5 | +51.7% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $291.5 | +56.0% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $325 | $309.18 | +40.8% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $290.4 | +56.0% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $277.58 | +30.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $280.27 | +9.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $287.51 | -9.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $287.51 | +32.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $295 | $287.51 | +27.8% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $305 | $283.65 | +32.2% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $300 | $283.65 | +30.0% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $256 | $276.15 | +10.9% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| KGI Securities | Rob Chang | $242 | $229.33 | +4.9% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $170 | $229.33 | -26.3% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $260 | $217.63 | +12.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $260 | $216.94 | +12.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | James Schneider | $250 | $232.75 | +8.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $246 | $232.96 | +6.6% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $240 | $220.84 | +4.0% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Toni Sacconaghi | $185 | $220.97 | -19.8% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $200 | $203.53 | -13.3% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Needham | Matt Dezort | $256.79 | $130.75 | +11.3% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $205 | $184.02 | -11.2% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Stefan Slowinski | $145 | $174.95 | -37.2% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $200 | $173.25 | -13.3% | May 22, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $190 | $167.8 | -17.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $179 | $184.1 | -22.4% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $190 | $184.1 | -17.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $215 | $184.1 | -6.8% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $210 | $181.9 | -9.0% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $210 | $189.82 | -9.0% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $179 | $143.88 | -22.4% | Oct 26, 2023 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $152 | $137.9 | -34.1% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Toni Sacconaghi | $145 | $127.08 | -37.2% | Apr 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $143 | $130.42 | -38.0% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Joseph Foresi | $138 | $131.22 | -40.2% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Moshe Katri | $140 | $128.72 | -39.3% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| UBS | David Vogt Vogt | $112 | $121.63 | -51.5% | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $156 | $130.79 | -32.4% | Jul 31, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $138.13 | -32.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $138.32 | -39.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $136.82 | -34.1% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $166 | $135.96 | -28.1% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $157 | $129.15 | -32.0% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $118.06 | $43.07 | -48.8% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $148 | $126.56 | -35.9% | Apr 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $150 | $126.14 | -35.0% | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $140 | $130.15 | -39.3% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $155 | $137.15 | -32.8% | Feb 5, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $165 | $134.5 | -28.5% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | David Vogt | $118 | $134.48 | -48.9% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Brian Essex | $144 | $134.48 | -37.6% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Katy Huberty | $147 | $129.35 | -36.3% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Brian Essex | $140 | $134.21 | -39.3% | Jan 15, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $165 | $133.39 | -28.5% | Oct 8, 2021 |
| Societe Generale | Richard Nguyen | $140 | $128.88 | -39.3% | Jul 20, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Ingo Wermann | $155 | $130.72 | -32.8% | Apr 21, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IBM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivers comprehensive technology solutions and services across the globe. The company's operations are structured into four primary segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software division provides hybrid cloud platforms and a range of software offerings, including Red Hat's enterprise open-source solutions. It also develops software for business automation, AIOps and management, integration, and application servers, in addition to data and artificial intelligence tools. This segment further supplies security software and services for threat, data, and identity management, and offers critical transaction processing software that supports essential on-premise workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail.…
Historical context
All IBM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-15T00:03:22.707476+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T09:40:47.164033+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T09:40:47.161336+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.