Humana Inc. · HUM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Humana advances margin plan as Stars improve; 2027 bid risks remain

The supplied analysis supports a qualified case for Humana’s earnings-growth trajectory: management described improving Stars performance, lower operating costs, Medicare Advantage margin expansion, and Medicaid growth. The counterweight is execution risk around 2027 bids, CMS thresholds, drug costs, IBNR, and membership changes.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $44.66B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.61 Consensus $7.27
EPS surprise +4.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $40.87B Consensus $40.58B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -6.0% Event window
SPY move -1.5% Same window
Abnormal move -4.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +7.0% Up to 20 sessions
HUMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, Humana’s Q2 analysis added a $1.5 billion contingent pre-capitalized trust facility, a roughly $900 million Gentiva stake divestiture to fund the MaxHealth acquisition, and integration of CarePlus onto core platforms. Management also highlighted a 120-basis-point year-over-year operating-cost-ratio reduction, continued Stars progress, and an Illinois Medicaid contract.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance while emphasizing progress toward a sustainable 3% pretax margin by 2028; the supplied analysis does not identify a numerical change to current-year guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Management said Humana remains on track for a sustainable 3% pretax margin by 2028.
  • The operating cost ratio fell 120 basis points year over year, with a roughly 150-basis-point full-year reduction target.
  • Capital actions included a roughly $900 million Gentiva stake divestiture to fund the MaxHealth acquisition and a $1.5 billion contingent pre-capitalized trust facility.

Management priorities

  • Execute the 2027 Medicare Advantage bid strategy, including targeted plan exits and benefit adjustments.
  • Continue outsourcing, vendor optimization, platform integration, and MaxHealth synergies.
  • Expand Medicaid in Illinois and improve Stars performance toward top-quartile targets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HUM REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $29B Q1 '24 actual $30B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $29B Q2 '24 actual $30B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $29B Q3 '24 actual $29B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $32B Q2 '25 actual $32B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $32B Q3 '25 actual $33B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $32B Q4 '25 actual $33B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $39B Q1 '26 actual $40B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $41B Q2 '26 actual $41B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $41B Q4 '26 estimate $41B Q1 '27 estimate $41B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1738.6%
Neutral2659.1%
Bearish12.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$374.78Current
$180Low
$398Average
$652High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 10, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeAug 5, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 31, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 31, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 39 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $374.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchJustin Lake$450$378.87 +20.1%Aug 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$370$362.16 -1.3%Aug 4, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$407$366.61 +8.6%Jul 31, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$463$369.62 +23.5%Jul 30, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$405$367.84 +8.1%Jul 30, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Humana Inc., a prominent health and well-being enterprise, operates across the United States through its various subsidiary companies. Its operational structure is divided into three main segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The firm provides a wide array of medical and supplementary insurance plans directly to individual consumers. Furthermore, Humana collaborates with government entities; it holds a contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to manage the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI NET) prescription drug program. The company also secures agreements with numerous states to deliver Medicaid, dual-eligible, and long-term care support benefits.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-29T20:04:44.322943+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T19:30:58.708945+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T19:30:58.704796+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.