Humana Inc. · HUM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Humana advances margin plan as Stars improve; 2027 bid risks remain

The supplied analysis supports a qualified case for Humana’s earnings-growth trajectory: management described improving Stars performance, lower operating costs, Medicare Advantage margin expansion, and Medicaid growth. The counterweight is execution risk around 2027 bids, CMS thresholds, drug costs, IBNR, and membership changes.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $44.66B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.61 Consensus $7.27
EPS surprise +4.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $40.87B Consensus $40.58B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -6.0% Event window
SPY move -1.5% Same window
Abnormal move -4.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +7.0% Up to 20 sessions
HUMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, Humana’s Q2 analysis added a $1.5 billion contingent pre-capitalized trust facility, a roughly $900 million Gentiva stake divestiture to fund the MaxHealth acquisition, and integration of CarePlus onto core platforms. Management also highlighted a 120-basis-point year-over-year operating-cost-ratio reduction, continued Stars progress, and an Illinois Medicaid contract.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance while emphasizing progress toward a sustainable 3% pretax margin by 2028; the supplied analysis does not identify a numerical change to current-year guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Management said Humana remains on track for a sustainable 3% pretax margin by 2028.
  • The operating cost ratio fell 120 basis points year over year, with a roughly 150-basis-point full-year reduction target.
  • Capital actions included a roughly $900 million Gentiva stake divestiture to fund the MaxHealth acquisition and a $1.5 billion contingent pre-capitalized trust facility.

Management priorities

  • Execute the 2027 Medicare Advantage bid strategy, including targeted plan exits and benefit adjustments.
  • Continue outsourcing, vendor optimization, platform integration, and MaxHealth synergies.
  • Expand Medicaid in Illinois and improve Stars performance toward top-quartile targets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HUM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $6.12 Q1 '24 actual $7.23, beat Q2 '24 estimate $5.85 Q2 '24 actual $6.96, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.40 Q3 '24 actual $4.16, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.92 Q2 '25 actual $6.27, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.93 Q3 '25 actual $3.24, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-4.00 Q4 '25 actual $-3.96, beat Q1 '26 estimate $10.24 Q1 '26 actual $10.31, beat Q2 '26 estimate $7.27 Q2 '26 actual $7.61, beat Q3 '26 estimate $-1.00 Q4 '26 estimate $-8.18 Q1 '27 estimate $12.25
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1738.6%
Neutral2659.1%
Bearish12.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$374.78Current
$180Low
$398Average
$652High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 10, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeAug 5, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 31, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 31, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2026
Raymond James Market Perform OutperformDowngradeJul 30, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform In LineUpgradeJul 30, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJul 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeJul 13, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 9, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 7, 2026
B of A Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainJun 24, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainJun 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeMay 20, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 13, 2026
Goldman Sachs Sell SellMaintainFeb 17, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 5, 2025
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainAug 14, 2025
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 25, 2025
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 1, 2025
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 9, 2024
Leerink Partners Market Perform OutperformDowngradeOct 2, 2024
SVB Securities Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 27, 2023
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 6, 2023
Cowen & Co. Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 6, 2023
SVB Leerink Outperform OutperformMaintainNov 3, 2022
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainApr 29, 2021
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Hold HoldMaintainMay 21, 2020
BMO Capital Market Perform OutperformDowngradeSep 30, 2019
Piper Jaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 1, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainAug 2, 2018
Argus Buy BuyMaintainMay 5, 2018
Stifel Nicolaus Hold BuyDowngradeJan 24, 2017
Stifel Hold BuyDowngradeJan 24, 2017
Susquehanna Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 9, 2015
Wedbush Neutral OutperformDowngradeJul 6, 2015
Sterne Agee CRT Neutral UnderperformUpgradeJun 3, 2015
Sterne Agee Neutral UnderperformUpgradeJun 3, 2015
Leerink Swann Outperform OutperformMaintainJun 1, 2015
FBR Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainNov 10, 2014
Monness, Crespi, Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeNov 5, 2013
Monness Crespi Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeNov 5, 2013
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $374.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchJustin Lake$450$378.87 +20.1%Aug 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$370$362.16 -1.3%Aug 4, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$407$366.61 +8.6%Jul 31, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$463$369.62 +23.5%Jul 30, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$405$367.84 +8.1%Jul 30, 2026
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$405$367.16 +8.1%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$390$365.89 +4.1%Jul 30, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$471$365.89 +25.7%Jul 30, 2026
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$513$365.89 +36.9%Jul 30, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$480$365.45 +28.1%Jul 29, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$410$398.25 +9.4%Jul 20, 2026
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$415$406 +10.7%Jul 14, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$502$392.22 +33.9%Jul 13, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$415$401.34 +10.7%Jul 9, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$300$392.86 -20.0%Jul 7, 2026
Raymond JamesSarah James$300$392.86 -20.0%Jul 7, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$390$350.08 +4.1%Jun 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$249$327.54 -33.6%Jun 4, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$425$320.88 +13.4%Jun 3, 2026
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$320$305.42 -14.6%Jun 1, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$344$300.86 -8.2%May 26, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$320$303.68 -14.6%May 22, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$335$310.55 -10.6%May 20, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$441$310.55 +17.7%May 20, 2026
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$217$301.35 -42.1%May 15, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$254$295.35 -32.2%May 13, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$260$236.44 -30.6%May 1, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$246$240.92 -34.4%Apr 30, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$235$241.1 -37.3%Apr 30, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$260$242.68 -30.6%Apr 30, 2026
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$270$243.12 -28.0%Apr 30, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$269$243.12 -28.2%Apr 30, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$262$243.12 -30.1%Apr 30, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$180$243.12 -52.0%Apr 30, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$195$198.39 -48.0%Apr 8, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$258$198.39 -31.2%Apr 8, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$206$184.99 -45.0%Feb 18, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$200$185.36 -46.6%Feb 17, 2026
Deutsche BankGeorge Hill$180$182.87 -52.0%Feb 13, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$195$176.24 -48.0%Feb 12, 2026
Raymond JamesSarah James$201$177.74 -46.4%Feb 12, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$250$173.81 -33.3%Feb 12, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$146$175.4 -61.0%Feb 12, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$252$175.4 -32.8%Feb 12, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$189$175.4 -49.6%Feb 12, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$174$195.2 -53.6%Feb 2, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$290$279.84 -22.6%Jan 7, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$344$281.03 -8.2%Jan 6, 2026
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$262$260.28 -30.1%Dec 18, 2025
JefferiesDavid Windley$313$253.02 -16.5%Dec 5, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$234$229.2 -37.6%Nov 25, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$285$242.75 -24.0%Nov 10, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$300$266.92 -20.0%Oct 14, 2025
Goldman SachsScott Fidel$235$271 -37.3%Oct 14, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnn Hynes$345$298.04 -7.9%Oct 9, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$347$295.2 -7.4%Oct 7, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$300$256.62 -20.0%Oct 3, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$245$256.62 -34.6%Oct 3, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$315$312 -16.0%Sep 4, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$325$311.98 -13.3%Sep 4, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$275$261.47 -26.6%Jul 31, 2025
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$348$217.14 -7.1%Jul 18, 2025
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$280$241.45 -25.3%Jun 17, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$268$234.96 -28.5%Jun 12, 2025
Deutsche BankGeorge Hill$248$287.64 -33.8%Dec 4, 2024
Deutsche BankGeorge Hill$250$260.57 -33.3%Oct 22, 2024
BarclaysAndrew Mok$250$245.45 -33.3%Oct 10, 2024
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$265$236.29 -29.3%Oct 8, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$253$240.03 -32.5%Oct 7, 2024
Piper SandlerJessica Tassan$274$239.32 -26.9%Oct 3, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesKevin Fischbeck$247$246.49 -34.1%Oct 2, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$419$319.57 +11.8%Sep 27, 2024
RBC CapitalFrank Morgan$400$364.06 +6.7%Sep 5, 2024
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$400$361.61 +6.7%Aug 1, 2024
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$400$382.22 +6.7%Jul 15, 2024
Piper SandlerJessica Tassan$392$355.8 +4.6%Jun 25, 2024
BarclaysAndrew Mok$370$349.55 -1.3%Jun 20, 2024
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$370$315.98 -1.3%Apr 25, 2024
RBC CapitalFrank Morgan$353$315.98 -5.8%Apr 25, 2024
Cantor FitzgeraldSarah James$360$315.98 -3.9%Apr 25, 2024
BarclaysAndrew Mok$310$351.45 -17.3%Apr 2, 2024
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$560$474.1 +49.4%Feb 7, 2023
Cowen & Co.Analyst unavailable$581$484.71 +55.0%Feb 6, 2023
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$575$476.57 +53.4%Feb 6, 2023
UBSAnalyst unavailable$620$486.02 +65.4%Feb 2, 2023
J.P. MorganAnalyst unavailable$625$492.54 +66.8%Jan 6, 2023
Goldman SachsNathan Rich$652$528.9 +74.0%Dec 13, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$615$558.3 +64.1%Nov 10, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$544$505.88 +45.2%Sep 20, 2022
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$570$493.38 +52.1%Sep 16, 2022
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$550$491.49 +46.8%Sep 16, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$494$474.44 +31.8%Aug 2, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$570$478.35 +52.1%Jul 28, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$529$478.35 +41.1%Jul 28, 2022
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$520$478.35 +38.7%Jul 28, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$540$478.35 +44.1%Jul 28, 2022
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$550$491.79 +46.8%Jul 26, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$514$443 +37.1%May 25, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$512$457.31 +36.6%Apr 28, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$541$442.3 +44.4%Apr 28, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$535$443.37 +42.8%Apr 28, 2022
UBSKevin Caliendo$520$453.97 +38.7%Apr 19, 2022
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$490$451.33 +30.7%Apr 11, 2022
UBSKevin Caliendo$486$362.52 +29.7%Jan 7, 2022
BarclaysSteven Valiquette$490$362.52 +30.7%Jan 7, 2022
Goldman SachsNathan Rich$472$460.34 +25.9%Dec 14, 2021
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$510$452.06 +36.1%Nov 4, 2021
Credit SuisseA.J. Rice$513$452.06 +36.9%Nov 4, 2021
Bank of America SecuritiesKevin Fischbeck$530$452.06 +41.4%Nov 4, 2021
Cantor FitzgeraldSteven Halper$480$457.94 +28.1%Nov 3, 2021
Cowen & Co.Gary Taylor$479$415.01 +27.8%Sep 9, 2021
Evercore ISIMichael Newshel$450$424.06 +20.1%Aug 4, 2021
StephensScott Fidel$500$423.34 +33.4%Aug 3, 2021
J.P. MorganLisa Gill$514$453.35 +37.1%Jul 9, 2021
Wolfe ResearchJustin Lake$498$443.19 +32.9%Apr 26, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Humana Inc., a prominent health and well-being enterprise, operates across the United States through its various subsidiary companies. Its operational structure is divided into three main segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The firm provides a wide array of medical and supplementary insurance plans directly to individual consumers. Furthermore, Humana collaborates with government entities; it holds a contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to manage the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI NET) prescription drug program. The company also secures agreements with numerous states to deliver Medicaid, dual-eligible, and long-term care support benefits.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-29T20:04:44.322943+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T19:30:58.708945+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T19:30:58.704796+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.