Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy42 ratings
Bullish2252.4%
Neutral2047.6%
Bearish00.0%
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. · HIG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
HIG: Strong profitability, AI investment and disciplined growth
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong profitability, business-insurance growth, AI and digital investments, Prevail expansion, and capital strength provide operating support, while pricing pressure, higher costs, disability trends, and catastrophe exposure limit confidence in the durability of that trajectory.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$34.50B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.06
Consensus $3.17
EPS surprise
+28.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.34B
Consensus $7.29B
Revenue surprise
+0.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.0%
Up to 20 sessions
HIGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HIG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did HIG rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in HIG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for HIG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes an AI-first operating model, a new catastrophe bond raising per-event coverage to $1.9 billion, higher quarterly share repurchases to $450 million, and continued Prevail expansion. The supplied guidance sentiment remained maintained.
Guidance delta
Maintained; no change in guidance sentiment was identified in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management described strong profitability, including $3.8 billion in core earnings and a 19.4% ROE.
- Business Insurance and small business were highlighted as growth drivers, while Personal lines reached targeted profitability.
- The company is expanding its AI-first operating model and Prevail platform while adding catastrophe protection.
- The outlook is balanced by pricing pressure, technology and incentive costs, disability trends, and catastrophe exposure.
Management priorities
- Accelerate AI-driven workflow redesign across claims, underwriting, and operations.
- Deploy Prevail to 30 states by early 2027 and pursue SME market-share gains with disciplined underwriting.
- Expand employee-benefits offerings while maintaining capital returns and catastrophe protection.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$122.88Current
$73Low
$131.61Average
$165High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 27, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 13, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2020 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 26, 2019 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 26, 2019 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 15, 2019 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 24, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 16, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2014 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 27, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 27, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $122.88. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $146 | $138.15 | +18.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $154 | $127.33 | +25.3% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $154 | $127.33 | +25.3% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $139.38 | +15.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $165 | $136.38 | +34.3% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $135.06 | +27.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $135.06 | +27.0% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $132.37 | +9.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $132.44 | +30.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $135.24 | +24.5% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $151 | $135.9 | +22.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $145 | $136.86 | +18.0% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $139.01 | +31.0% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $138.65 | +30.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $155 | $129.43 | +26.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $155 | $138.37 | +26.1% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $136.64 | +18.0% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $150 | $133.06 | +22.1% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $152 | $133.81 | +23.7% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $133.81 | +30.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $133.48 | +13.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $134.24 | +11.5% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $131.91 | +22.1% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $123 | $112.3 | +0.1% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $141 | $124.03 | +14.7% | Nov 27, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $126 | $113.48 | +2.5% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $121 | $116.66 | -1.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $130 | $116 | +5.8% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $113 | $109.26 | -8.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $118 | $109.26 | -4.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $125 | $109.44 | +1.7% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $115 | $109.41 | -6.4% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $111 | $99.4 | -9.7% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jacob Kilstein | $110 | $101.33 | -10.5% | May 15, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $115 | $99.46 | -6.4% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tracy Benguigui | $78 | $63.45 | -36.5% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.15 | -30.8% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $69.93 | -27.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $86 | $72.13 | -30.0% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $93 | $67.86 | -24.3% | Sep 9, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Phil Stefano | $73 | $62.28 | -40.6% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Charles Peters | $75 | $65.3 | -39.0% | Apr 19, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Nicole Miller Regan | $75 | $65.09 | -39.0% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HIG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Business Insurance, Personal Insurance, Property & Casualty Other Operations, Employee Benefits and Hartford Funds. The company offers insurance coverage, including workers’ compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company also provides automobiles, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages. The Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures.…
Historical context
All HIG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
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Get the HIG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T19:06:07.849734+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T19:06:07.846905+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.