Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish2862.2%
Neutral1533.3%
Bearish24.5%
HCA Healthcare, Inc. · HCA · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
HCA: Strong Q1 growth, guidance maintained amid policy risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis for HCA: broad-based volume growth, payer-mix improvement, operating leverage, and capacity investment were paired with maintained guidance. The main qualification is continued exposure to policy, reimbursement, labor, tariff, and hurricane uncertainty.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$99.75B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $5.77
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $18.26B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+14.8%
Up to 20 sessions
HCASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HCA FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove HCA's -4.0% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in HCA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for HCA after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis highlights strong Q1 volume and earnings growth, improved margins, maintained full-year guidance, approximately $1 billion of Q1 capex, two named medical-center acquisitions, an $80 million increase in DPP state supplemental payments, and fixed pricing for approximately 70% of 2025 supply expense.
Guidance delta
Maintained: management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance despite policy, tariff, and hurricane uncertainty.
Key takeaways
- Broad-based inpatient and outpatient volume growth and improved payer mix supported strong Q1 earnings growth.
- Operating leverage improved operating and adjusted EBITDA margins, according to the transcript analysis.
- Management continued facility, bed-capacity, technology, workforce, and acquisition investments.
- Policy, tariff, Medicaid, labor, and hurricane risks remain the main offsets to the growth narrative.
Management priorities
- Expand facilities and inpatient bed capacity while maintaining disciplined capital spending.
- Invest in digital transformation, automation, and AI across administrative, operational, and clinical functions.
- Develop the workforce and pursue strategic acquisitions and divestitures.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$460.75Previous close
$224Low
$400.65Average
$579High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 16, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2018 |
| Leerink Swann | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 4, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2018 |
| William Blair | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2017 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 9, 2016 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 18, 2014 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 31, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 12, 2013 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 17, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $460.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $496 | $438.46 | +7.7% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $495 | $438.12 | +7.4% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $485 | $389.62 | +5.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $579 | $390.7 | +25.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $476 | $387.41 | +3.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $388.48 | -17.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $485 | $388.93 | +5.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $393 | $382.19 | -14.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $387 | $382.19 | -16.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $382.19 | -5.6% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $369 | $371.18 | -19.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $402 | $378.85 | -12.8% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $363.6 | -5.6% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $363.6 | -2.3% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $428 | $406.59 | -7.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $427 | $423.11 | -7.3% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $528 | $424.8 | +14.6% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $417.07 | +13.9% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $413 | $367.69 | -10.4% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $413 | $363.23 | -10.4% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $444.76 | +15.0% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $432.46 | +16.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $432.46 | +12.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $534 | $432.46 | +15.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $436 | $432.46 | -5.4% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $510 | $432.46 | +10.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $496 | $432.46 | +7.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $432.46 | +13.9% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $635 | $532.3 | +37.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $541 | $501.69 | +17.4% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $488.27 | +17.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $481 | $482.53 | +4.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $483.16 | +20.5% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $503 | $483.76 | +9.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $598 | $487.53 | +29.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $505.84 | +17.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $588 | $505.84 | +27.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $505.84 | +19.4% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $551 | $505.84 | +19.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $465.44 | +8.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $452 | $483.6 | -1.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $503 | $479.53 | +9.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $471.85 | +12.9% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $495 | $447.04 | +7.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Stephens | Raj Kumar | $500 | $447.04 | +8.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $482 | $447.04 | +4.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $494 | $454.84 | +7.2% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $454.84 | +13.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $452.07 | -7.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $520 | $452.23 | +12.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $525 | $454.58 | +13.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $454.03 | +8.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $505 | $453.92 | +9.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $417 | $451.02 | -9.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $419.6 | +3.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $412.66 | -0.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $495 | $415.65 | +7.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $470 | $410.68 | +2.0% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $465 | $437.57 | +0.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $412 | $433.55 | -10.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $401.1 | -3.4% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $401 | $334.29 | -13.0% | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Craig Hettenbach | $410 | $373.01 | -11.0% | Jun 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $416 | $382.16 | -9.7% | Jun 2, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Matthew Gillmor | $370 | $308.21 | -19.7% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $400 | $359.07 | -13.2% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Matthew Gillmor | $420 | $359.07 | -8.8% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $425 | $359.16 | -7.8% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Matthew Gillmor | $475 | $387.25 | +3.1% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Pito Chickering | $441 | $406.01 | -4.3% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $430 | $373.77 | -6.7% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Pito Chickering | $375 | $335.04 | -18.6% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brian Tanquilut | $390 | $336.82 | -15.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $329 | $311.07 | -28.6% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $345 | $306.69 | -25.1% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Pito Chickering | $359 | $327.25 | -22.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $298 | $285.91 | -35.3% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $257.09 | -35.8% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $257.85 | -35.8% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $243.21 | -47.3% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $239.7 | -37.9% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $241.35 | -42.5% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.97 | -45.7% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $210.25 | -43.8% | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $230 | $213.47 | -50.1% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $199 | $204.66 | -56.8% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $198.63 | -50.1% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $198.53 | -46.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $202.87 | -45.7% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $202.03 | -47.9% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $202.03 | -47.9% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $167.49 | -54.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $233 | $170.02 | -49.4% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $172.6 | -52.3% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $172.76 | -56.6% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $168.06 | -54.4% | Jul 1, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $173.1 | -44.4% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Joseph France | $240 | $171.56 | -47.9% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $215.7 | -43.6% | May 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Matt Borsch | $240 | $219.06 | -47.9% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $241 | $210.9 | -47.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $210.5 | -46.8% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $210.56 | -45.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $211.94 | -50.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $208.7 | -43.6% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $210.64 | -40.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $210.64 | -44.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $210.64 | -42.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Steve Baxter | $227 | $210.5 | -50.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Sarah James | $256 | $210.64 | -44.4% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $290 | $210.64 | -37.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | David S Macdonald | $310 | $258.43 | -32.7% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brian Tanquilut | $310 | $259.72 | -32.7% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Lisa Gill | $270 | $246.51 | -41.4% | Dec 21, 2021 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $290 | $245.1 | -37.1% | Dec 20, 2021 |
| Raymond James | John Ransom | $300 | $240.42 | -34.9% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $290 | $240.83 | -37.1% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Pito Chickering | $306 | $240.83 | -33.6% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Barclays | Sarah James | $275 | $244.85 | -40.3% | Aug 16, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg | $275 | $249.51 | -40.3% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Justin Lake | $224 | $206.85 | -51.4% | Jun 21, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HCA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of medical and surgical care, encompassing inpatient services, intensive care, cardiac treatment, diagnostic procedures, and emergency services. These hospitals additionally offer a broad range of outpatient care, such as ambulatory surgery, laboratory testing, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. Beyond its hospital infrastructure, HCA Healthcare operates numerous specialized outpatient facilities.…
Historical context
All HCA earningsHealthcare peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
Missed on EPS
Get the HCA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-11T00:04:52.040594+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T06:50:41.932830+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T06:50:41.930015+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.