Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish1376.5%
Neutral317.6%
Bearish15.9%
GFL Environmental Inc. · GFL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
GFL’s 2026 outlook builds on record margins, with execution and leverage in focus
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: pricing, EPR implementation, acquisitions and operational efficiency underpin management’s 2026 outlook, while commodity and FX sensitivity, organic volume, and leverage constrain confidence in sustained growth.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$15.78B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.26
Consensus $0.14
EPS surprise
+85.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.23B
Consensus $1.21B
Revenue surprise
+1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-6.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.0%
Up to 20 sessions
GFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about GFL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did GFL fall 6.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in GFL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for GFL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the latest call analysis describes a completed Environmental Services divestiture, U.S. headquarters relocation and further share repurchases, alongside a maintained 2026 outlook. The strategic emphasis remains on pricing, EPR rollout, tuck-in M&A and RNG development.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2026 outlook. The supplied analysis cites revenue of $7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.14 billion and 60 basis points of margin expansion; it does not describe a new increase or reduction in that outlook.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA margin reached a reported 30%, up 130 basis points year over year.
- The analysis cites nearly $1 billion of 2025 M&A, more than $3 billion of share repurchases and net leverage of 3.4x.
- Management’s 2026 outlook is supported by pricing, EPR implementation, volume in South and Southeast U.S. markets, and further acquisitions.
- RNG projects are expected by management to ramp in 2027–28; their timing and cost profile remain execution variables.
Management priorities
- Maintain net leverage in the low-to-mid-3x range through 2026.
- Pursue synergistic acquisitions within existing market footprints.
- Complete EPR implementation by 2027 and continue RNG development.
- Continue share repurchases when market conditions are favorable.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$45.21Previous close
$36.5Low
$50.86Average
$58High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2024 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2023 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2023 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 15, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $45.21. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $43.68 | +21.7% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $41.5 | +28.3% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $43.38 | +39.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $57 | $44.47 | +26.1% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.14 | +10.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $58 | $45.13 | +28.3% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $45.94 | +28.3% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $57 | $46.63 | +26.1% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $56 | $51.58 | +23.9% | May 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $56 | $48.55 | +23.9% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $47.36 | +15.0% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $50 | $39.75 | +10.6% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $54 | $39.09 | +19.4% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $42 | $39.35 | -7.1% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $46 | $34.73 | +1.7% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $43 | $33.44 | -4.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $46 | $34.35 | +1.7% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $41 | $26.05 | -9.3% | Oct 24, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $36.5 | $36.15 | -19.3% | Sep 3, 2021 |
Track every rating change on GFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationGFL Environmental Inc. functions as a multifaceted environmental services provider with operations spanning Canada and the United States. The company's core offerings encompass three distinct areas: managing non-hazardous solid waste, undertaking infrastructure and soil cleanup projects, and handling various types of liquid waste. Within its solid waste division, GFL handles every stage from collecting and transporting to transferring, recycling, and ultimately disposing of non-hazardous solid waste.…
Historical context
All GFL earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.0% | +0.5% | General Dynamics raises outlook as orders and backlog surge |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.9% | -6.8% | RBC Bearings: Strong Q2, capacity investment supports second half |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.3% | CN posts strong Q3, maintains EPS outlook and expands Mexico strategy |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +0.8% | MasTec posts record Q3 as power and data-center demand accelerates |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +18.5% | +0.2% | Ingersoll Rand raises FY2026 outlook as orders accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the GFL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T11:50:48.463760+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T11:50:48.461009+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.