Liberty Media Corporation · FWONK · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

F1 attendance and hospitality lead, while expansion carries execution risks

The call supports a cautious case that F1 attendance and premium hospitality, alongside licensing, media partnerships and MotoGP cross-promotion, can underpin growth. The case remains conditional on demand, execution and a stable race calendar; the supplied analysis does not establish that these drivers will outweigh geopolitical or leverage risks.

Why did FWONK rise 7.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?

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Reported Before market openNASDAQCommunication Services $26.71B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.54 Consensus $0.56
EPS surprise -3.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.23B Consensus $1.24B
Revenue surprise -1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +7.7% Event window
SPY move -4.4% Same window
Abnormal move +12.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
FWONKSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current-quarter analysis emphasizes strong F1 attendance and hospitality, MotoGP leadership changes and cross-promotion, and a simplified capital structure after the Malone share transaction. Against the prior-quarter account of F1 revenue pressure from calendar variability and MotoGP growth, the current narrative puts more weight on F1 demand and expansion opportunities.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was characterized as maintained; no change is identified in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • F1 attendance and Paddock Club hospitality were highlighted as revenue drivers despite flat overall top-line performance.
  • MotoGP leadership changes and cross-promotion with F1 are intended to support commercial development.
  • Race-calendar expansion, sprint events, licensing and media partnerships are presented as growth opportunities.
  • Calendar variability, geopolitical instability and leverage remain important counterweights.

Management priorities

  • Expand premium hospitality products across F1 and MotoGP.
  • Develop race-calendar and event-format opportunities, including planned new markets and additional sprint events.
  • Build licensing and media-rights partnerships and strengthen MotoGP commercial leadership.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FWONK EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.07 Q1 '24 actual $0.33, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.32 Q2 '24 actual $0.10, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.81 Q2 '25 actual $1.52, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.42 Q3 '25 actual $0.24, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.40 Q4 '25 actual $0.39, match Q1 '26 estimate $-0.06 Q1 '26 actual $0.22, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.24 Q2 '26 actual $0.02, miss Q3 '26 estimate $0.56 Q3 '26 actual $0.54, miss Q4 '26 estimate $0.96 Q1 '27 estimate $-0.05 Q2 '27 estimate $0.42 Q3 '27 estimate $0.67
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1872.0%
Neutral624.0%
Bearish14.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$105.68Current
$81Low
$108.44Average
$134High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainOct 16, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainAug 17, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 7, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 7, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 28, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 6, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 8, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainJun 4, 2025
Seaport Global Buy NeutralUpgradeMar 17, 2025
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainFeb 28, 2025
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeOct 5, 2023
Wolfe Research Outperform Peer PerformUpgradeSep 5, 2023
Benchmark Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2023
TD Cowen Outperform OutperformMaintainJun 5, 2023
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainApr 18, 2023
Pivotal Research Buy BuyMaintainApr 17, 2023
Deutsche Bank Hold HoldMaintainSep 14, 2022
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainAug 8, 2022
B. Riley FBR Buy BuyMaintainMar 18, 2020
B. Riley Securities Buy BuyMaintainMar 17, 2020
FBN Securities Perform OutperformDowngradeSep 18, 2019
B. Riley Buy NeutralUpgradeMay 16, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2017
FBR Capital Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 15, 2017
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $105.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$110$90.81 +4.1%Oct 16, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$96$94.86 -9.2%Sep 29, 2026
JefferiesAnthony Berni$115$94.95 +8.8%Sep 9, 2026
GuggenheimCurry Baker$134$104.24 +26.8%Aug 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$125$101.88 +18.3%Jul 29, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$116$102.23 +9.8%Jul 29, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$119$100.93 +12.6%Jul 28, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$115$98.5 +8.8%Jul 6, 2026
Morgan StanleySean Diffley$120$94.1 +13.6%May 8, 2026
BernsteinIan Moore$115$94.25 +8.8%May 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$117$85.95 +10.7%Apr 30, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$104$91.67 -1.6%Apr 15, 2026
GuggenheimCurry Baker$124$86.66 +17.3%Jan 30, 2026
BernsteinIan Moore$111$90.28 +5.0%Jan 12, 2026
Wolfe ResearchPeter Supino$123$93.48 +16.4%Dec 15, 2025
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$119$102.32 +12.6%Nov 6, 2025
SusquehannaJoseph Stauff$120$103.32 +13.6%Jul 11, 2025
Seaport GlobalAnalyst unavailable$96$85.96 -9.2%Mar 16, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$110$96.43 +4.1%Feb 28, 2025
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$115$92.58 +8.8%Dec 18, 2024
UBSRyan Gravett$85$79.69 -19.6%Oct 17, 2024
Seaport GlobalDavid Joyce$87$77.14 -17.7%Oct 7, 2024
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBarton Crockett$91$77.21 -13.9%Aug 14, 2024
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBarton Crockett$88$65.54 -16.7%Apr 2, 2024
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$72$58.12 -31.9%Jun 15, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$65$62.76 -38.5%May 2, 2022
Rosenblatt SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$81$66.63 -23.4%Apr 26, 2022
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Formula One Group is a global entity primarily involved in the motorsports industry, both domestically in the United States and abroad. It holds the exclusive commercial rights for the Formula 1 World Championship, an extensive series of motor races spanning roughly nine months each year. During this competition, both teams and individual drivers vie for separate titles: the Constructors' Championship for the teams and the Drivers' Championship for the individual racers. The company was established in 1950 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, operating as a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation.

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T21:17:33.350315+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T12:00:48.575427+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T12:00:48.572718+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.