First Solar, Inc. · FSLR · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

First Solar: Margin gains offset lower volume outlook

First Solar's Q3 showed improved profitability and durable backlog visibility, while lower volume and EBITDA guidance made the near-term outlook more cautious. The investment case now depends on executing U.S. manufacturing and CuRe expansion while navigating policy, pricing, and Malaysia-facility decisions.

Reported After market closeNASDAQEnergy $19.01B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.30 Consensus $4.67
EPS surprise +13.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.23B Consensus $1.29B
Revenue surprise -4.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.4% Event window
SPY move -1.8% Same window
Abnormal move +0.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
FSLRSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management's tone shifted from confident to cautious and full-year guidance was lowered. The company emphasized a 44-GW backlog, project-specific contracts, U.S. manufacturing expansion, and continued perovskite development, while identifying price discovery, tariff enforcement, and Malaysia as important uncertainties.

Guidance delta

Full-year guidance was lowered for volume and EBITDA, with reduced India and U.S. sales forecasts cited in the analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Profitability improved despite a year-over-year revenue decline, with gross-margin expansion and higher net income.
  • The 44-GW backlog supports visibility, but management highlighted slower booking urgency for 2029-2030 and pricing discovery after Section 232.
  • Series 7 CuRe, South Carolina manufacturing, and Ohio perovskite development remain key execution priorities.
  • A strong cash position and up to $500 million of planned share repurchases provide financial flexibility, while Malaysia and policy implementation remain material uncertainties.

Management priorities

  • Begin Series 7 CuRe conversion in India in Q1 2027 and roll it out to U.S. facilities.
  • Launch the South Carolina finishing facility commercially by mid-2027 and bring the Ohio perovskite pilot line to operational readiness in H1 2027.
  • Finalize the Malaysia facility decision in H1 2027 and execute the authorized share-repurchase program.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FSLR REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $720M Q1 '24 actual $794M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $940M Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $888M, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q3 '26 actual $1B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold73 ratings
Bullish4561.6%
Neutral2128.8%
Bearish79.6%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$174.4Current
$70Low
$244.34Average
$330High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainOct 27, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 19, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 14, 2026
Truist Securities Buy HoldUpgradeOct 12, 2026
Show 69 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $174.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$299$168.15 +71.4%Oct 27, 2026
JefferiesJulian Dumoulin-Smith$199$178.24 +14.1%Oct 16, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$259$179.08 +48.5%Oct 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$326$180.84 +86.9%Oct 14, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$270$177.82 +54.8%Oct 12, 2026
See 133 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

First Solar, Inc. is a global provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, operating in numerous international markets including the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, and Australia. The company's primary activity involves the engineering, manufacturing, and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which are designed to convert solar radiation directly into electricity. Its clientele is broad, serving system developers and operators, utility companies, independent power producers, commercial and industrial businesses, and various other system owners. Founded in 1999, the firm is based in Tempe, Arizona, and underwent a name change in 2006 from its former designation, First Solar Holdings, Inc.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-30T14:10:46.175039+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-30T01:23:13.979536+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-30T23:30:43.572291+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-30T23:30:43.569618+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.