Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy8 ratings
Bullish562.5%
Neutral337.5%
Bearish00.0%
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. · FIX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
FIX Q1 2026: Revenue Doubles, Record Backlog as Data-Center Demand Accelerates
Comfort Systems USA's Q1 2026 results show data-center construction demand is still accelerating, driving both revenue growth and margin expansion. Revenue rose 56% YoY to $2.87 billion, beating estimates by 20%, while gross margin reached a record 26.3%. Backlog climbed to $12.5 billion, supporting management's mid- to high-20% organic growth outlook. The initial market reaction was negative — a 3.5% abnormal decline — likely reflecting concerns over sustainability, a one-time $43 million change-order benefit, and surging capital expenditures of $147 million. The stock subsequently drifted 5.9% higher. With a bullish score of 85 and maintained guidance, the fundamental picture is strong, but labor constraints, capex efficiency, and acquisition integration are key execution risks.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$57.24B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationComfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$10.51
Consensus $7
EPS surprise
+54.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.87B
Consensus $2.39B
Revenue surprise
+19.7%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,519.96Current
$1,140Low
$1,929.33Average
$2,225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 2, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2017 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 1, 2014 |
| Gilford Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 10, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,519.96. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Brophy | $1,910 | $1,730.11 | +25.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,225 | $1,728.2 | +46.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $2,110 | $1,733.6 | +38.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $2,159 | $1,684.94 | +42.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,125 | $1,838.11 | +39.8% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $2,200 | $1,868.18 | +44.7% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,992 | $1,753.47 | +31.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $2,004 | $1,740.33 | +31.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| GLJ Research | Analyst unavailable | $2,001 | $1,682.15 | +31.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,819 | $1,611 | +19.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,611 | $1,408.1 | +6.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $1,800 | $1,411 | +18.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,310 | $1,162.26 | -13.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,196 | $1,121.44 | -21.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $1,200 | $935 | -21.1% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $1,140 | $993 | -25.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,069 | $981.66 | -29.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $810 | $973.94 | -46.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $575 | $479.1 | -62.2% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $525 | $313.58 | -65.5% | Nov 19, 2024 |
Track every rating change on FIX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.9%
Up to 20 sessions
FIXSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue growth accelerated from 35% same-store growth in Q4 2025 to 51% in Q1 2026. Gross margin expanded from 25.5% in Q4 2025 to a record 26.3%. Backlog grew from $12.0 billion to $12.5 billion. Capital expenditures surged to $147 million in Q1, up from $22 million a year earlier, to fund a large modular assembly building in Texas. An electrical contractor acquisition expected to add approximately $250 million in annual revenue was announced, with closing anticipated in early May. Capex outlook shifted from stable to increasing.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its mid- to high-20% organic growth guidance for 2026, supported by record backlog and strong bookings. Capex outlook increased from stable to roughly 5% of revenue for the full year. A new $0.80 quarterly dividend was announced. Guidance sentiment remained maintained.
Key takeaways
- Revenue and earnings more than doubled YoY, driven by strong data-center and advanced-technology demand, with same-store growth of 51%.
- Gross margin reached an all-time high of 26.3%, up from 25.5% in Q4 2025, supported by favorable change orders and improved segment mix.
- Backlog hit a record $12.5 billion, a $5 billion year-over-year increase, providing visibility for sustained mid- to high-20% organic growth.
- EPS of $10.51 beat estimates by 54%, while revenue of $2.87 billion exceeded expectations by 20%.
- An electrical contractor acquisition adding approximately $250 million in annual revenue at 8-10% EBITDA margin is expected to close in early May.
Management priorities
- Complete modular capacity expansion to 4 million square feet by end of 2026.
- Close the electrical contractor acquisition in early May and integrate operations.
- Grow service and maintenance revenue from data-center assets.
- Maintain disciplined project selection to protect margins.
- Sustain capex at roughly 5% of revenue for the full year.
Related earnings events
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T17:31:21.383803+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T17:31:21.381060+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.