FedEx Corporation · FDX · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2025

FedEx grows Q3 revenue but lowers FY25 EPS outlook

The current analysis supports a mixed trajectory: cost savings, network improvements and selected growth initiatives provide support, but lower FY25 EPS guidance and persistent B2B, inflation and USPS-related headwinds weaken the near-term case.

Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials $68.38B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $4.58
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $21.95B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.4% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -6.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.9% Up to 20 sessions
FDXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the company reported Q3 revenue growth and stronger adjusted operating income but reduced FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $18.00-$18.60. DRIVE savings increased to $600 million for the quarter, while RouteSmart, Ground Economy and Freight-separation execution remained central to the operating plan.

Guidance delta

FY25 adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to $18.00-$18.60 from the prior quarter's $19.00-$20.00 range.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 revenue rose 2% year over year and adjusted operating income increased 12%.
  • DRIVE delivered $600 million of quarterly savings, while Network 2.0 routed 12% of daily volume.
  • Management highlighted Europe share gains, Ground Economy growth, RouteSmart optimization and progress toward the Freight separation.

Management priorities

  • Advance DRIVE savings and Network 2.0 efficiency initiatives.
  • Progress the FedEx Freight separation and build the dedicated LTL sales organization.
  • Expand Ground Economy, Sunday residential coverage and route-optimization capabilities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FDX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $3.45 Q3 '24 actual $3.86, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.35 Q4 '24 actual $5.41, beat Q1 '25 estimate $4.76 Q1 '25 actual $3.60, miss Q4 '25 estimate $5.82 Q4 '25 actual $6.07, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3.60 Q1 '26 actual $3.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.07 Q2 '26 actual $4.82, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.34 Q3 '26 actual $5.25, beat Q4 '26 estimate $5.91 Q4 '26 actual $6.31, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3.36 Q2 '27 estimate $6.59 Q3 '27 estimate $4.34 Q4 '27 estimate $5.24
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1634.0%
Bearish36.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$289.03Previous close
$140Low
$284.64Average
$479High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainSep 28, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainJun 25, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJun 24, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJun 24, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $289.03. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$140$289.65 -51.6%Sep 29, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$350$314.13 +21.1%Sep 9, 2026
Raymond JamesPatrick Tyler Brown$330$331.41 +14.2%Aug 28, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$165$329.44 -42.9%Jun 26, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$365$316.83 +26.3%Jun 25, 2026
See 139 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-03-06T00:02:54.346456+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T10:40:42.219553+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T10:40:42.216777+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.