Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy40 ratings
Bullish2460.0%
Neutral1435.0%
Bearish25.0%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · FCX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
FCX Beats Q2 on Higher Copper Margins, Grasberg Ramp-Up Doubles Production
Freeport-McMoRan beat Q2 consensus on both lines — EPS of $0.68 versus $0.60 estimated and revenue of $7.03B versus $6.62B estimated — driven by higher copper prices and lower unit cash costs. The Grasberg ramp-up doubled production rates, and U.S. mining improved with Morenci rates up 30%. Strategically, management submitted a formal application for the Grasberg mine-rights extension beyond 2041, increased Cerro Verde ownership above 55% through open-market purchases, and advanced leach technology toward a 300-million-pound annual run-rate by year-end. The Bagdad expansion decision is expected in H2, with management indicating the project remains attractive at $4/lb copper despite higher capex. Guidance was maintained. The stock rose approximately 4% on the print but has since drifted about 5% lower, suggesting the initial positive reaction was not fully sustained.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$88.61B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationFreeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver, alongside other valuable metals. Additionally, it maintains a significant presence in the oil and gas sector. Its diverse portfolio of assets features the notable Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; numerous sites in the United States including Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.68
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+13.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.03B
Consensus $6.62B
Revenue surprise
+6.2%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$61.64Previous close
$28Low
$57.46Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 9, 2022 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 2, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Brean Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2014 |
| Wellington Shields | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2013 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 22, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $61.64. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $82 | $62.62 | +33.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $61.86 | +18.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $70 | $63.53 | +13.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $78 | $62.46 | +26.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $60.89 | +29.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $57.48 | +20.1% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.49 | +24.9% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $58.5 | $64.25 | -5.1% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.31 | +24.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $75 | $61 | +21.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $61.83 | +20.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $61.48 | +7.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $61.48 | +21.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $68.73 | +16.8% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $68.31 | +24.9% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $68.09 | +15.2% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $56.24 | +7.1% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $62.88 | +16.8% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $61.17 | +13.6% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $63.06 | +13.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $70 | $60.29 | +13.6% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $58.9 | -12.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.7 | +3.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $68 | $54.4 | +10.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.64 | -10.8% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $53 | $47.54 | -14.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.51 | -2.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $47 | $40 | -23.8% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $47 | $40 | -23.8% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $51 | $41.48 | -17.3% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $41.7 | -18.9% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $40.69 | -25.4% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $40.69 | -23.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $38.87 | -22.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.22 | -22.1% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $46 | $37.67 | -25.4% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $45 | $37.67 | -27.0% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $46 | $38.1 | -25.4% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $48 | $37.67 | -22.1% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $50 | $46.36 | -18.9% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ralph Profiti | $56 | $46.27 | -9.1% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $37.35 | -15.6% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $39 | $33.32 | -36.7% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $53 | $50.79 | -14.0% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $52 | $51.34 | -15.6% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $58 | $45.39 | -5.9% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $55 | $42.04 | -10.8% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $53 | $45.27 | -14.0% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $62 | $48.96 | +0.6% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $54 | $52.04 | -12.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $54 | $48.7 | -12.4% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $55 | $50 | -10.8% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Liam Fitzpatrick | $46 | $49.61 | -25.4% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49.5 | $49.64 | -19.7% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $48.5 | $42.2 | -21.3% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $29 | $30.51 | -53.0% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Abhi Agarwal | $35 | $29.78 | -43.2% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $27.42 | -61.1% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $12.55 | -62.7% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $34 | $26.48 | -44.8% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $28.86 | -40.0% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.78 | -38.4% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $30 | $31.32 | -51.3% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Curt Woodworth | $38 | $42.2 | -38.4% | Jun 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $40 | -36.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $42.52 | -9.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $43.6 | -23.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $44.95 | -23.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $50 | $37.1 | -18.9% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $45 | $37.1 | -27.0% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Sam Crittenden | $46 | $38.43 | -25.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49 | $44.29 | -20.5% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $45 | $37.54 | -27.0% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Barclays | Matt Murphy | $28 | $37.54 | -54.6% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $43 | $37.54 | -30.2% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Emily Chieng | $43 | $36.04 | -30.2% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on FCX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.2%
Up to 20 sessions
FCXSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q1, several developments stand out. Grasberg production doubled, a meaningful recovery from the wet-ore bottlenecks that had prompted a roughly 9% production forecast reduction for 2026-27 in the prior quarter. The capex outlook shifted from stable to increasing, reflecting the approaching Bagdad expansion decision and continued investment in leach technology and U.S. modernization. The Grasberg mine-rights extension progressed from an MOU (announced in Q1) to a formal application, advancing toward a post-2041 license. Freeport increased its Cerro Verde stake above 55% through opportunistic market purchases, a new development not discussed in Q1. The leach technology roadmap was refined: Q1 referenced a long-term target of 800 million pounds per year by 2030, while Q2 introduced a nearer-term milestone of 300 million pounds annually by year-end. The bullish score rose from 78 to 82.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained, consistent with the prior quarter. Management did not raise or lower full-year guidance. However, the capex outlook shifted from stable to increasing, signaling anticipated investment acceleration tied to the Bagdad expansion decision and leach technology scaling.
Key takeaways
- Q2 beat: EPS $0.68 vs. $0.60 estimated (+13.3%); revenue $7.03B vs. $6.62B estimated (+6.2%), driven by higher copper prices and lower unit cash costs.
- Grasberg ramp-up doubled production rates, marking significant recovery from Q1 wet-ore bottlenecks that had cut 2026-27 forecasts by ~9%.
- U.S. mining improved, with Morenci mining rates up 30% and leach initiatives advancing toward a 300-million-pound annual run-rate by year-end.
- Formal application submitted for Grasberg mine-rights extension beyond 2041, progressing from the MOU announced in Q1.
- Increased Cerro Verde stake above 55% through opportunistic open-market purchases.
- Bagdad expansion decision expected in H2; management views it as attractive at $4/lb copper despite higher capex.
Management priorities
- Complete Grasberg ramp-up and secure final license extension beyond 2041.
- Finalize Bagdad expansion investment decision in H2, targeting production in early 2030s.
- Scale leach additive deployment across Morenci, El Abra, and other sites.
- Advance El Abra expansion and Safford/Lone Star projects.
- Continue U.S. asset modernization, including automation and higher-capacity trucks.
Related earnings events
Basic MaterialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T16:05:07.242697+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T05:51:22.558899+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T05:51:22.556248+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.