Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy40 ratings
Bullish2460.0%
Neutral1435.0%
Bearish25.0%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · FCX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Freeport beats Q1 on copper strength but slips ~12% on Grasberg output cut
Freeport's Q1 2026 beat on EPS and revenue was powered by copper prices above $5.80/lb and improved unit costs. Management's maintained guidance rests on a strong copper backdrop, the low-cost leach growth pillar (an 800M-lbs-per-year 2030 target), and disciplined capex at $4.3-4.5B. The bearish offset the market focused on is execution: wet-ore handling at Grasberg forced a ~9% cut to 2026-27 production until regulator installation restores the block cave to 90,000 tpd by mid-2027. Copper price sensitivity means profitability stays tied to the metal's path.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$103.63B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.57
Consensus $0.47
EPS surprise
+22.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.23B
Consensus $5.73B
Revenue surprise
+8.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-12.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-12.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.4%
Up to 20 sessions
FCXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FCX FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FCX fall 12.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in FCX's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for FCX after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
On April 23, 2026 (before the open), Freeport reported FY2026 Q1 results. EPS of $0.57 beat estimates of about $0.47 and revenue of $6.23B beat about $5.73B. Despite the beat, the stock moved down about 12.2% against a roughly flat SPY, on elevated volume (about 2.5x baseline), as the market focused on the Grasberg wet-ore bottleneck and the ~9% cut to the 2026-27 production forecast.
Guidance delta
Overall guidance maintained. High copper prices (above $5.80/lb) support revenue and cash flow, and capex stays near $4.3-4.5B for 2026-27. The one offset: Grasberg production forecast trimmed ~9% for 2026-27 due to wet-ore handling bottlenecks, pending regulator installation (target 90,000 tpd by mid-2027).
Key takeaways
- Q1 EPS of $0.57 beat consensus of about $0.47; revenue of $6.23B topped the about $5.73B estimate
- Copper prices above $5.80/lb drove revenue and cash-flow strength
- Stock fell roughly 12.2% on the report versus SPY roughly flat, driven by the Grasberg wet-ore bottleneck and the ~9% cut to the 2026-27 production forecast
- Leach initiative targets 800M lbs of copper per year by 2030; capex held near $4.3-4.5B for 2026-27
- About $300M returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks
Management priorities
- Restore Grasberg production to 90,000 tpd by mid-2027 via regulator installation and drainage work
- Scale the leach initiative to 400M lbs in 2026 and 800M lbs by 2030
- Advance the Bagdad expansion decision and engineering
- Secure El Abra permitting and continue Safford/Lone Star district studies
- Maintain dividends and buybacks while preserving a strong balance sheet
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$72.12Current
$28Low
$57.13Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 9, 2022 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 2, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Brean Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2014 |
| Wellington Shields | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2013 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 22, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $72.12. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $76.63 | -34.8% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $82 | $62.62 | +13.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $61.86 | +1.2% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $70 | $63.53 | -2.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $78 | $62.46 | +8.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $60.89 | +10.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $57.48 | +2.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.49 | +6.8% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $58.5 | $64.25 | -18.9% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.31 | +6.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $75 | $61 | +4.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $61.83 | +2.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $61.48 | -8.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $61.48 | +4.0% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $68.73 | -0.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $68.31 | +6.8% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $68.09 | -1.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $56.24 | -8.5% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $62.88 | -0.2% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $61.17 | -2.9% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $63.06 | -2.9% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $70 | $60.29 | -2.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $58.9 | -25.1% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.7 | -11.3% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $68 | $54.4 | -5.7% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.64 | -23.7% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $53 | $47.54 | -26.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.51 | -16.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $47 | $40 | -34.8% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $47 | $40 | -34.8% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $51 | $41.48 | -29.3% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $41.7 | -30.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $40.69 | -36.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $40.69 | -34.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $38.87 | -33.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.22 | -33.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $46 | $37.67 | -36.2% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $45 | $37.67 | -37.6% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $46 | $38.1 | -36.2% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $48 | $37.67 | -33.4% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $50 | $46.36 | -30.7% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ralph Profiti | $56 | $46.27 | -22.4% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $37.35 | -27.9% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $39 | $33.32 | -45.9% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $53 | $50.79 | -26.5% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $52 | $51.34 | -27.9% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $58 | $45.39 | -19.6% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $55 | $42.04 | -23.7% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $53 | $45.27 | -26.5% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $62 | $48.96 | -14.0% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $54 | $52.04 | -25.1% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $54 | $48.7 | -25.1% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $55 | $50 | -23.7% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Liam Fitzpatrick | $46 | $49.61 | -36.2% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49.5 | $49.64 | -31.4% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $48.5 | $42.2 | -32.8% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $29 | $30.51 | -59.8% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Abhi Agarwal | $35 | $29.78 | -51.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $27.42 | -66.7% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $12.55 | -68.1% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $34 | $26.48 | -52.9% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $28.86 | -48.7% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.78 | -47.3% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $30 | $31.32 | -58.4% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Curt Woodworth | $38 | $42.2 | -47.3% | Jun 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $40 | -45.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $42.52 | -22.4% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $43.6 | -34.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $44.95 | -34.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $50 | $37.1 | -30.7% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $45 | $37.1 | -37.6% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Sam Crittenden | $46 | $38.43 | -36.2% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49 | $44.29 | -32.1% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $45 | $37.54 | -37.6% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Barclays | Matt Murphy | $28 | $37.54 | -61.2% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $43 | $37.54 | -40.4% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Emily Chieng | $43 | $36.04 | -40.4% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on FCX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFreeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver, alongside other valuable metals. Additionally, it maintains a significant presence in the oil and gas sector. Its diverse portfolio of assets features the notable Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; numerous sites in the United States including Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino…
Historical context
All FCX earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
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- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the FCX recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T11:51:00.958589+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T11:51:00.955713+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.