Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy40 ratings
Bullish2460.0%
Neutral1435.0%
Bearish25.0%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · FCX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
FCX: Grasberg recovery and leach growth remain central to outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent outlook: Grasberg recovery and low-cost leach growth provide potential support, while higher capex, operating costs, copper-price sensitivity, and project execution could limit progress.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$103.42B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.47
Consensus $0.29
EPS surprise
+64.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.63B
Consensus $5.29B
Revenue surprise
+6.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.3%
Up to 20 sessions
FCXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FCX FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FCX fall 2.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in FCX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FCX after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts emphasis toward Grasberg recovery and an increasing capex program, while retaining the prior quarter’s focus on leach scaling, U.S. production growth, and copper-demand support.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the analysis highlights higher planned capital spending for 2026–27 and continued execution targets.
Key takeaways
- Fourth-quarter performance was described as strong, with unit net cash costs close to guidance despite the Grasberg incident.
- Management’s growth plan centers on Grasberg recovery, leach technology, and the Baghdad expansion.
- The analysis identifies copper prices, project execution, costs, and permitting as the main variables to monitor.
Management priorities
- Restart and ramp Grasberg production.
- Scale the leach initiative and pursue lower-cost U.S. copper growth.
- Advance the Baghdad expansion and mining automation.
- Progress the El Abra expansion and related permitting.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$70.79Current
$28Low
$57.13Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 9, 2022 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 2, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Brean Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2014 |
| Wellington Shields | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2013 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 22, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $70.79. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $76.63 | -33.6% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $82 | $62.62 | +15.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $61.86 | +3.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $70 | $63.53 | -1.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $78 | $62.46 | +10.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $60.89 | +13.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $57.48 | +4.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.49 | +8.8% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $58.5 | $64.25 | -17.4% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.31 | +8.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $75 | $61 | +5.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $61.83 | +4.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $61.48 | -6.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $61.48 | +5.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $68.73 | +1.7% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $68.31 | +8.8% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $68.09 | +0.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $56.24 | -6.8% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $62.88 | +1.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $61.17 | -1.1% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $63.06 | -1.1% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $70 | $60.29 | -1.1% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $58.9 | -23.7% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.7 | -9.6% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $68 | $54.4 | -3.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.64 | -22.3% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $53 | $47.54 | -25.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.51 | -15.2% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $47 | $40 | -33.6% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $47 | $40 | -33.6% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $51 | $41.48 | -28.0% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $41.7 | -29.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $40.69 | -35.0% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $40.69 | -33.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $38.87 | -32.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.22 | -32.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $46 | $37.67 | -35.0% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $45 | $37.67 | -36.4% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $46 | $38.1 | -35.0% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $48 | $37.67 | -32.2% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $50 | $46.36 | -29.4% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Ralph Profiti | $56 | $46.27 | -20.9% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $37.35 | -26.5% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $39 | $33.32 | -44.9% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $53 | $50.79 | -25.1% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $52 | $51.34 | -26.5% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $58 | $45.39 | -18.1% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $55 | $42.04 | -22.3% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $53 | $45.27 | -25.1% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $62 | $48.96 | -12.4% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $54 | $52.04 | -23.7% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $54 | $48.7 | -23.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Orest Wowkodaw | $55 | $50 | -22.3% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Liam Fitzpatrick | $46 | $49.61 | -35.0% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49.5 | $49.64 | -30.1% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $48.5 | $42.2 | -31.5% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $29 | $30.51 | -59.0% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Abhi Agarwal | $35 | $29.78 | -50.6% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $27.42 | -66.1% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $12.55 | -67.5% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Jatinder Goel | $34 | $26.48 | -52.0% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $28.86 | -47.7% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.78 | -46.3% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $30 | $31.32 | -57.6% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Curt Woodworth | $38 | $42.2 | -46.3% | Jun 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $40 | -44.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $42.52 | -20.9% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $43.6 | -33.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $44.95 | -33.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $50 | $37.1 | -29.4% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $45 | $37.1 | -36.4% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Sam Crittenden | $46 | $38.43 | -35.0% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $49 | $44.29 | -30.8% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $45 | $37.54 | -36.4% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Barclays | Matt Murphy | $28 | $37.54 | -60.4% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $43 | $37.54 | -39.3% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Emily Chieng | $43 | $36.04 | -39.3% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on FCX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFreeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver, alongside other valuable metals. Additionally, it maintains a significant presence in the oil and gas sector. Its diverse portfolio of assets features the notable Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; numerous sites in the United States including Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino…
Historical context
All FCX earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the FCX recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T20:11:00.933665+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T20:11:00.930759+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.