Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish1136.7%
Neutral1756.7%
Bearish26.6%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Fastenal Company · FAST · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Fastenal Q4: Double-Digit Growth Meets Higher Capex and CEO Transition
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: Fastenal paired Q4 growth with digital expansion, cost discipline and cash generation, but execution, tariffs and lower-margin account mix remain key tests.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$57.94B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.26
Consensus $0.26
EPS surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.03B
Consensus $2.04B
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.6%
Event window
SPY move
-2.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.9%
Up to 20 sessions
FASTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FAST FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FAST fall 2.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in FAST's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FAST after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis highlights record $8.2 billion annual revenue, digital channels at about 62% of sales, a 2026 capex target of 3.5% of sales, and a planned CEO transition.
Guidance delta
Formal guidance was not provided. Management emphasized confidence in double-digit top-line growth in 2026 and outlined a 2026 capex target of about 3.5% of net sales.
Key takeaways
- Q4 sales grew 11% year over year, and annual revenue reached a record $8.2 billion.
- Digital channels represented about 62% of total sales, with FMI devices and e-business supporting expansion.
- Cost discipline and cash generation support planned 2026 investment in hubs, FMI devices and IT.
Management priorities
- Increase 2026 capex to about 3.5% of net sales for hub capacity, FMI devices and IT.
- Scale fleet and distribution infrastructure to support field operations.
- Accelerate the e-business relaunch and digital solutions.
- Continue fastener expansion, broader product growth and data-driven pricing.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$50.25Current
$42Low
$54.37Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 21, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2019 | |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.25. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $54 | $51.22 | +7.5% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $52 | $45.36 | +3.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | William Blunt | $55 | $46.49 | +9.5% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.13 | -6.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.11 | -4.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $48.6 | -6.5% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $46.1 | -8.5% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Guy Hardwick | $46 | $44.73 | -8.5% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $45.8 | -16.4% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $50 | $45.8 | -0.5% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.16 | -4.5% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $45 | $47.75 | -10.4% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $51 | $47.87 | +1.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $46 | $44.11 | -8.5% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $42.62 | -14.4% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $52 | $42 | +3.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.33 | -10.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.45 | -2.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $82 | $43.13 | +63.2% | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $76 | $77.16 | +51.2% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $72 | $76.82 | +43.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $86 | $76.82 | +71.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $80 | $76.82 | +59.2% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $75 | $76.82 | +49.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $56 | $70.55 | +11.4% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $72 | $65.18 | +43.3% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $74 | $63.88 | +47.3% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $67 | $64.76 | +33.3% | May 29, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $66 | $70.45 | +31.3% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $64 | $70.45 | +27.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $62 | $69.97 | +23.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $71 | $69.88 | +41.3% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $59 | $75.9 | +17.4% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $57 | $55.85 | +13.4% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $50 | $52.56 | -0.5% | Apr 13, 2023 |
| UBS | Chris Snyder | $50 | $48.3 | -0.5% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $48 | $47.32 | -4.5% | Jul 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other international markets. Branded as Fastenal, the company offers a comprehensive range of fasteners, such as threaded bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, which are vital for manufacturing processes, building developments, and equipment servicing. Beyond fasteners, its product catalog extends to diverse hardware and miscellaneous items like pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, and rivets, along with their related accessories.…
Historical context
All FAST earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T11:41:07.595534+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T11:41:07.592335+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.