Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1135.5%
Neutral1754.8%
Bearish39.7%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Fastenal Company · FAST · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Fastenal emphasizes onsite growth as capex rises despite margin pressure
Fastenal's growth case rests on scaling onsite, vending and digital programs while investing in distribution capacity. The supplied analysis supports operational momentum but also shows that modest sales growth, flat EPS and margin risks make the next phase execution-dependent.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$58.55B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.48
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.84B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.8%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.7%
Up to 20 sessions
FASTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FAST FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove FAST's +1.8% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in FAST's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FAST after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted a larger 2025 investment program, continued onsite and FMI expansion, a dividend increase and improving customer sentiment. At the same time, Q4 operating-margin pressure and the unresolved effects of shutdowns, tariffs and e-commerce economics remained important constraints.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management projected 2025 capex of $265-$285 million and remained cautiously optimistic about demand.
Key takeaways
- Q4 sales grew modestly while EPS was flat, with operating-margin pressure linked to holiday shutdowns.
- Onsite and vending programs are central growth drivers and now represent a large share of sales.
- Management plans higher 2025 capex for distribution hubs, FMI technology and digital initiatives.
- A dividend increase reflected management's confidence in cash generation, while tariffs and e-commerce margins remain risks.
Management priorities
- Scale onsite and vending programs, with focus on customers spending $10,000 or more per month.
- Complete the Utah hub and begin the Atlanta hub while improving inventory availability.
- Increase FMI signings and IT spending for digital projects.
- Use the March 13 Investor Day to discuss digitization, AI and the strategic plan.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$51.02Current
$45Low
$55.05Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 21, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2019 | |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $51.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $60 | $52 | +17.6% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $52 | -7.9% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Chris Dankert | $51 | $50.78 | -0.0% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $54 | $51.22 | +5.8% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $52 | $45.36 | +1.9% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | William Blunt | $55 | $46.49 | +7.8% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.13 | -7.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.11 | -5.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $48.6 | -7.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $46.1 | -9.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Guy Hardwick | $46 | $44.73 | -9.8% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $45.8 | -17.7% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $50 | $45.8 | -2.0% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.16 | -5.9% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $45 | $47.75 | -11.8% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $51 | $47.87 | -0.0% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $46 | $44.11 | -9.8% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $42.62 | -15.7% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $52 | $42 | +1.9% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.33 | -11.8% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.45 | -4.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $82 | $43.13 | +60.7% | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $76 | $77.16 | +49.0% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $72 | $76.82 | +41.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $86 | $76.82 | +68.6% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $80 | $76.82 | +56.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $75 | $76.82 | +47.0% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $56 | $70.55 | +9.8% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $72 | $65.18 | +41.1% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $74 | $63.88 | +45.0% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $67 | $64.76 | +31.3% | May 29, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $66 | $70.45 | +29.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $64 | $70.45 | +25.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $62 | $69.97 | +21.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $71 | $69.88 | +39.2% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $59 | $75.9 | +15.6% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $57 | $55.85 | +11.7% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Hoffman | $61 | $52.56 | +19.6% | Apr 13, 2023 |
| UBS | Chris Snyder | $50 | $48.3 | -2.0% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $48 | $47.32 | -5.9% | Jul 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other international markets. Branded as Fastenal, the company offers a comprehensive range of fasteners, such as threaded bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, which are vital for manufacturing processes, building developments, and equipment servicing. Beyond fasteners, its product catalog extends to diverse hardware and miscellaneous items like pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, and rivets, along with their related accessories.…
Historical context
All FAST earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | -2.0% | J.B. Hunt: Strong demand, but margin repair remains central |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-03T00:04:36.538277+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T01:20:41.178761+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T01:20:41.175915+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.