Expedia Group, Inc. · EXPE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

EXPE Beats on Q1 Bookings and Margin, Holds Full-Year Guidance

Expedia's Q1 2026 results exceeded estimates across the board — bookings up 13%, revenue up 15%, and the highest Q1 EBITDA margin in 15 years — yet shares fell roughly 10% in the session following the report. EPS of $1.96 beat consensus of $1.41 by 39%, and revenue of $3.43B beat the $3.35B estimate by 2.2%. The negative market reaction reflects a 'beat but not raise' dynamic: despite surpassing estimates on every line, management maintained rather than raised full-year guidance, and Q2 bookings growth is projected to decelerate to 7-9% from Q1's 13%. AI-driven efficiency, B2B API strength (up 22%), and the exclusive Uber hotel partnership are genuine bright spots highlighted by management, but the market weighed the growth slowdown and macro headwinds (Middle East conflict, Mexico travel advisories) more heavily than the margin achievement. The stock has since drifted an additional…

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $34.84B market cap
100quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services.…

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.96 Consensus $1
EPS surprise +39.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.43B Consensus $3.35B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
EXPE REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $3B Q4 '23 actual $3B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $4B Q2 '24 actual $4B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $4B Q3 '24 actual $4B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $4B Q2 '25 actual $4B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $4B Q3 '25 actual $4B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $4B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4B Q3 '26 estimate $5B Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '27 estimate $4B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold75 ratings
Bullish3445.3%
Neutral3952.0%
Bearish22.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$304.27Previous close
$116Low
$218.9Average
$330High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainJul 14, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 7, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJun 30, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainJun 9, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 18, 2026
Susquehanna Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 11, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMay 11, 2026
Show 67 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $304.27. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$294$264.94 -3.4%Jul 22, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$330$267.95 +8.5%Jul 20, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$255$265.01 -16.2%Jul 20, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$315$271.27 +3.5%Jul 7, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$303$265.28 -0.4%Jun 30, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$250$229.98 -17.8%May 11, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$264$229.98 -13.2%May 11, 2026
UBSStephen Ju$262$236.19 -13.9%May 8, 2026
Robert W. BairdMichael Bellisario$290$252.79 -4.7%May 8, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$307$252.79 +0.9%May 8, 2026
See 108 more

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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -9.0% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -9.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.8% Up to 20 sessions
EXPESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared to Q4 2025 (bookings and revenue +11% YoY, EBITDA margin +~4 points), Q1 2026 accelerated to 13% bookings growth and 15% revenue growth with a 6-point EBITDA margin expansion — the strongest Q1 margin in 15 years. B2B bookings grew 22% (vs. 24% in the prior quarter). Consumer brands posted their best bookings growth in nearly eight years, led by Vrbo and Expedia. New developments this quarter include the exclusive Uber hotel partnership (launching first in the U.S.), vacation rentals reaching a $1B annualized run rate on Expedia, and over 30% of service interactions now AI-driven. The prior quarter's Tickets acquisition was not highlighted in Q1 commentary. As in Q4 2025, management maintained full-year guidance rather than raising it.

Guidance delta

Guidance was maintained — unchanged from the prior quarter's full-year outlook. Despite the Q1 beat (EPS $1.96 vs. $1.41 estimated, revenue $3.43B vs. $3.35B estimated), management did not raise the full-year outlook. Q2 bookings growth is projected at 7-9%, a deceleration from Q1's 13%. The company announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 bookings grew 13% and revenue grew 15%, beating estimates; EBITDA margin expanded 6 points to the highest Q1 level in 15 years.
  • EPS of $1.96 beat consensus of $1.41 by 39%; revenue of $3.43B beat the $3.35B estimate by 2.2%.
  • B2B API bookings rose 22%, supported by new partnerships (Uber, AIR MILES) and a 10% increase in lodging property count.
  • Consumer brands posted their strongest bookings growth in nearly eight years, led by Vrbo and Expedia.
  • Full-year guidance maintained despite the beat; Q2 bookings growth projected at 7-9%, decelerating from Q1's 13%.
  • Shares fell roughly 10% on the report with volume 2.7x baseline — a 'beat but not raise' reaction to the guidance hold.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI tools across product personalization, supply onboarding, and post-booking service experiences.
  • Deepen and expand strategic partnerships, including the exclusive Uber hotel partnership and AIR MILES.
  • Continue investing in B2B API capabilities and the broader partner ecosystem.
  • Drive cost discipline and further margin expansion through operational efficiencies.
  • Execute on the new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T10:31:11.623814+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T10:31:11.620918+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.