Energy Transfer LP · ET · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Energy Transfer lifts EBITDA outlook as expansion and Vaquero deal add growth plans

Energy Transfer’s raised EBITDA outlook, record pipeline utilization and long-term contracted projects support a growth case. That case depends on disciplined execution of a substantial capital program and successful delivery of the Vaquero acquisition and planned projects.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $69.71B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $30.98B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.9% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -1.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.5% Up to 20 sessions
ETSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $850 million at the midpoint, according to the supplied call analysis. The update also included a planned 2027 capital-spending level of about $7 billion and a pending Vaquero Midstream acquisition expected to close in Q4 2026. The supplied scorecard has no reported EPS or revenue actuals, so this synthesis does not characterize the quarter as a beat or miss.

Guidance delta

Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised by $850 million at the midpoint. Organic growth capital is forecast at $5.4–$5.6 billion for 2026; management indicated approximately $7 billion of 2027 capital spending.

Key takeaways

  • The call analysis attributes strength to record intrastate transportation volumes and higher NGL and crude margins.
  • Management described a pipeline and processing expansion slate, including Hugh Brinson Phase II, South Mississippi and the planned Desert Southwest filing.
  • The pending Vaquero acquisition is described as adding 300 miles of pipeline and three Delaware Basin processing plants; closing remains subject to regulatory approval.

Management priorities

  • Advance contracted pipeline and processing projects while managing the capital program.
  • Close and integrate Vaquero, subject to required regulatory approvals.
  • Build capacity to serve natural-gas demand from power generation, data centers and export markets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ET EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.38 Q1 '24 actual $0.32, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.35 Q2 '24 actual $0.35, match Q3 '24 estimate $0.34 Q3 '24 actual $0.32, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.33 Q2 '25 actual $0.32, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.33 Q3 '25 actual $0.28, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.37 Q4 '25 actual $0.25, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.40 Q1 '26 actual $0.35, miss Q2 '26 estimate $0.38 Q2 '26 actual $0.59, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.40 Q4 '26 estimate $0.39 Q1 '27 estimate $0.39
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish3088.2%
Neutral411.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$19.46Current
$13Low
$19.78Average
$26High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 4, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 18, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainAug 10, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 29 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $19.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesJulien Dumoulin-Smith$25$20.24 +28.5%Nov 4, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesGabriel Moreen$26$20.72 +33.6%Oct 13, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$26$20.84 +33.6%Sep 22, 2026
Melius ResearchJames West$25$20.9 +28.5%Sep 22, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$23$19.72 +18.2%May 26, 2026
See 19 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Energy Transfer LP functions as a comprehensive provider of energy infrastructure and associated services. The company operates extensive natural gas networks, including approximately 11,600 miles of intrastate transportation pipelines and an additional 19,830 miles dedicated to interstate transport. Its natural gas storage capabilities encompass three facilities in Texas and another two spanning Texas and Oklahoma. Energy Transfer supplies natural gas to a diverse range of customers, such as electric utilities, independent power producers, local distribution companies, other marketing firms, and various industrial end-users. Beyond transportation, the firm manages substantial infrastructure for gathering, processing, treating, and conditioning natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) across a broad geographic area that includes Texas, New Mexico, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana.…

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T02:03:16.093959+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-05T01:23:14.052435+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-05T02:10:43.667246+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-05T02:10:43.664597+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.