Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1942.2%
Neutral2248.9%
Bearish48.9%
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · EL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025
Estée Lauder: Margin progress meets a cautious growth reset
The supplied analysis offers partial support for a recovery case: margin expansion, share gains, stronger digital reach, and restructuring progress improve the operating foundation. The case remains conditional because organic sales were down, travel retail and consumer demand remain uneven, and tariffs could pressure profitability.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$33.26B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.09
Consensus $0.09
EPS surprise
+4.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.41B
Consensus $3.39B
Revenue surprise
+0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.7%
Up to 20 sessions
ELSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about EL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did EL fall 3.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in EL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for EL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis moves from an FY2025 decline and restructuring emphasis toward an FY2026 low-single-digit growth and margin-expansion framework. Digital sales reached a record 31% of total sales, while management outlined a four-region structure, new product-development leadership, and further e-commerce expansion.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis describes FY2026 as targeting low-single-digit organic growth, margin expansion, and continued cost efficiency.
Key takeaways
- Fiscal 2025 organic sales declined 8%, while gross margin expanded 230 basis points to 74%.
- Online sales reached a record 31% of total sales.
- Management highlighted share gains in China, Japan, and the U.S., led by La Mer, The Ordinary, and MAC.
- The Beauty Reimagined transformation is shifting the organization toward four regions and greater regional P&L ownership.
- FY2026 priorities combine low-single-digit organic growth, margin expansion, innovation above 25% of sales, and cost efficiency.
Management priorities
- Accelerate product development and raise innovation share above 25% of sales
- Expand Amazon Premium Beauty and other e-commerce coverage
- Improve SG&A efficiency through outsourcing and procurement
- Develop emerging-market and travel-retail distribution
- Execute the Beauty Reimagined regional operating structure
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$94.01Current
$60Low
$135.66Average
$360High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 10, 2025 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2023 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 28, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| D.A. Davidson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 2, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 20, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 2, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2017 |
| CSLA | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2016 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 3, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $94.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berenberg Bank | Fulvio Cazzol | $92 | $104.1 | -2.1% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $97.72 | +14.9% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $97.48 | +24.5% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sydney Wagner | $100 | $97.1 | +6.4% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $96.86 | +27.6% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.01 | +22.3% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Cristian Rios | $106 | $98.01 | +12.8% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $90 | $98.01 | -4.3% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $102 | $98.01 | +8.5% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $98.01 | +3.2% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $98.01 | +10.6% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $98.01 | +19.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $87.03 | +1.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $83.2 | -6.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $82.12 | -4.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $83.64 | -14.9% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $86 | $82.75 | -8.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $100 | $84.81 | +6.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Cristian Rios | $82 | $88.02 | -12.8% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $80.83 | +1.1% | May 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $81.33 | -20.2% | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $85 | $81.7 | -9.6% | May 4, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $90 | $82.25 | -4.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $90 | $81.96 | -4.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.3 | -9.6% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $72 | $74.86 | -23.4% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $111 | $73.29 | +18.1% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.44 | -20.2% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| HSBC | Erwan Rambourg | $106 | $99.01 | +12.8% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $96.66 | +11.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $96.66 | +13.8% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $94 | $96.66 | -0.0% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $128 | $115.4 | +36.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $117.69 | +48.9% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $114.22 | +6.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $115.37 | +26.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $115.37 | +17.0% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $107.58 | +18.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $130 | $106.76 | +38.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $125 | $102.46 | +33.0% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Chris Pitcher | $70 | $93.39 | -25.5% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $96.69 | -3.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $113 | $97.33 | +20.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $105 | $96.63 | +11.7% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $102.16 | +6.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $87.65 | +22.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $85 | $91.2 | -9.6% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $66.08 | -36.2% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $76 | $66.58 | -19.2% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Mark Astrachan | $125 | $87.15 | +33.0% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $98 | $89.26 | +4.2% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| HSBC | Erwan Rambourg | $100 | $90.93 | +6.4% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $130 | $85.13 | +38.3% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $130 | $92.53 | +38.3% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $114 | $93.99 | +21.3% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $105 | $92.85 | +11.7% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $104 | $92.85 | +10.6% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $105 | $92.85 | +11.7% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Andrea Teixeira | $129 | $94.97 | +37.2% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Bryan Spillane | $100 | $95.14 | +6.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $131 | $99.96 | +39.3% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $117 | $96.9 | +24.5% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $136 | $113.93 | +44.7% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $140 | $132.94 | +48.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Olivia Tong | $155 | $132.51 | +64.9% | May 2, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $142 | $127.37 | +51.0% | May 2, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $175 | $138.21 | +86.2% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $191 | $138.8 | +103.2% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $158 | $145.43 | +68.1% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $195 | $162.93 | +107.4% | Aug 16, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $250 | $205.81 | +165.9% | May 8, 2023 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $228 | $222.91 | +142.5% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $303 | $239.5 | +222.3% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $320 | $265.1 | +240.4% | Aug 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $289 | $281.62 | +207.4% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $377 | $281.75 | +301.0% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $322 | $249.12 | +242.5% | May 4, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $246.14 | +240.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $259.28 | +207.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $275.1 | +272.3% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $342 | $314.43 | +263.8% | Feb 7, 2022 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $326 | $312.71 | +246.8% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Bryan Spillane | $330 | $312.71 | +251.0% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $341 | $302.5 | +262.7% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $360 | $302.5 | +282.9% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Christopher Carey | $355 | $302.5 | +277.6% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $380 | $293.61 | +304.2% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $439 | $339.07 | +367.0% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Olivia Tong | $390 | $337.32 | +314.8% | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Societe Generale | Victoria Nice | $335 | $324.8 | +256.3% | Jul 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on EL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global entity dedicated to the development, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of premium beauty and personal care items worldwide. Its extensive product catalog encompasses numerous offerings across four primary categories. For skin care, it provides moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body treatments, exfoliants, acne and oil control solutions, facial masks, specialized cleansing devices, and sun protection. In makeup, consumers can find lipsticks, glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, powders, compacts, brushes, and various other cosmetic tools. The fragrance segment includes eau de parfum sprays, colognes, scented lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps.…
Historical context
All EL earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the EL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T12:50:42.326356+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T12:50:42.323581+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.