Equifax Inc. · EFX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Equifax: Strong Mortgage Growth, Guidance Maintained Amid Uncertainty

Equifax's Q1 results support a constructive operating thesis: resilient demand, mortgage recovery, AI-enabled productivity, and new data products are driving growth. The evidence is balanced by maintained rather than raised guidance, macro uncertainty, and execution risks around government contracts and VantageScore adoption.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $17.48B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.86 Consensus $1.69
EPS surprise +10.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.65B Consensus $1.62B
Revenue surprise +2.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -3.0% Event window
SPY move -0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -2.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -16.4% Up to 20 sessions
EFXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current quarter showed stronger mortgage performance, continued AI and cloud execution, and larger TWN Indicator data assets. Compared with the prior analysis, management's full-year guidance remained maintained, while VantageScore pricing and adoption emerged as a more specific potential margin catalyst.

Guidance delta

Full-year guidance was maintained; management said it would have raised guidance absent uncertainty related to the Iran conflict.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 revenue rose 14% to $1.649 billion, led by a 38% increase in U.S. mortgage revenue.
  • EBITDA margin excluding FICO expanded 80 basis points, while cash conversion exceeded 100%.
  • AI and cloud-native platforms supported a 17% Vitality Index and faster product launches.
  • TWN Indicator records reached 211 million, supporting deployments across lending verticals.
  • VantageScore adoption could create margin upside, but timing remains uncertain.

Management priorities

  • Expand TWN Indicator deployments to auto lenders and personal-loan originators.
  • Extend Ignite AI Advisor across card and personal-loan portfolios.
  • Continue AI-enabled product development and cloud migration.
  • Pursue bolt-on acquisitions in Workforce Solutions, data assets, and international platforms.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
EFX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.74 Q4 '23 actual $1.81, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.44 Q1 '24 actual $1.50, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.76 Q2 '24 actual $1.82, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.84 Q3 '24 actual $1.85, match Q2 '25 estimate $1.93 Q2 '25 actual $2.00, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.94 Q3 '25 actual $2.04, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.06 Q4 '25 actual $2.09, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.69 Q1 '26 actual $1.86, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.20 Q2 '26 actual $2.25, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.22 Q4 '26 estimate $2.23 Q1 '27 estimate $2.15 Q2 '27 estimate $2.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish2466.7%
Neutral1130.5%
Bearish12.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$148.8Current
$182Low
$245.71Average
$331High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 22, 2026
Rothschild & Co Buy NeutralUpgradeAug 21, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainJul 22, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 22, 2026
Show 31 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $148.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoJason Haas$200$158.62 +34.4%Sep 22, 2026
BNP ParibasAndrew Grobler$245$177.05 +64.7%Sep 8, 2026
Redburn PartnersSimon Clinch$235$192.41 +57.9%Aug 21, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$208$169.84 +39.8%Jul 22, 2026
NeedhamKyle Peterson$245$173 +64.7%Jul 22, 2026
See 84 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Equifax Inc. operates as a global data and analytics company, delivering a range of information solutions and specialized human resources administrative process outsourcing services. Its clientele spans across businesses, governmental organizations, and individual consumers. The company's operations are structured into three primary divisions: Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions (USIS), and International. The Workforce Solutions segment specializes in employment-related data, offering verification services for income, employment history, criminal records, and Social Security numbers. It also provides tools for payroll-based transactions, employment tax management, and products aimed at protecting against identity theft. The U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) segment provides a comprehensive suite of services for both consumers and businesses within the United States.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T04:20:58.777862+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T04:20:58.775175+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.