Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1445.2%
Neutral1754.8%
Bearish00.0%
Duke Energy Corporation · DUK · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Duke Energy Q1 2026: EPS Beat, Data-Center Load Hits 7.6 GW, Guidance Reaffirmed
Duke Energy's Q1 2026 results reinforce the investment thesis built around regulated utility growth powered by data-center load expansion and a record capital plan. The quarter delivered a 3.2% EPS beat and an 8.8% revenue beat while management reaffirmed full-year guidance, signaling that the growth trajectory outlined in February remains on track. Despite the solid print, the stock traded down on the report day with a negative abnormal return and has drifted lower since, suggesting investors are focused on regulatory and execution risk rather than the beat itself.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$100.76B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationDuke Energy Corporation, an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates, structures its operations into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure division is responsible for generating, transmitting, distributing, and retailing electricity across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwestern states. Its power generation relies on a diverse portfolio of fuel sources, including coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable technologies, and nuclear energy. Beyond direct retail sales, it also provides electricity at wholesale rates to various entities such as municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving organizations.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.93
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+3.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.18B
Consensus $8.44B
Revenue surprise
+8.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$129.24Current
$93Low
$128.24Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Mar 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 17, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 9, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 26, 2016 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 17, 2015 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 6, 2015 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 1, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $129.24. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $139 | $127.95 | +7.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $127.28 | +6.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $125.01 | +3.7% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $135 | $123.73 | +4.5% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $134 | $123.73 | +3.7% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| BTIG | Alex Kania | $139 | $119.89 | +7.6% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $124.45 | +2.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $137 | $120.95 | +6.0% | May 18, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $124.65 | +8.3% | May 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $127.58 | +7.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $126.73 | +9.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $136 | $127.87 | +5.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $142 | $127.87 | +9.9% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $126.1 | +7.6% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $136 | $123.64 | +5.2% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $130 | $123.64 | +0.6% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| BTIG | Alex Kania | $141 | $120.89 | +9.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D'Ambrisi | $140 | $116.85 | +8.3% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $130 | $118.94 | +0.6% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $119.22 | -11.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $118.68 | -1.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $115.59 | -2.5% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $116.19 | -2.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $133 | $122.54 | +2.9% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $127.49 | -2.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D'Ambrisi | $143 | $127.49 | +10.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $126.82 | +8.3% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $136 | $129.53 | +5.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $128.33 | +16.1% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $135 | $126.09 | +4.5% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $124.71 | +6.0% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $124.71 | +4.5% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $124.38 | +10.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $121.57 | +6.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $122.32 | +3.7% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $118.87 | +2.1% | Jul 1, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $115.23 | +4.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $124 | $113.78 | -4.1% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $121 | $115.09 | -6.4% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $126 | $116.7 | -2.5% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $116 | $116.85 | -10.2% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Marie Ferguson | $125 | $112.69 | -3.3% | Aug 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $120 | $113.51 | -7.1% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $114 | $106.92 | -11.8% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $112 | $103.7 | -13.3% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $110 | $103.89 | -14.9% | May 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $99 | $94.13 | -23.4% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $99 | $96.12 | -23.4% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $113 | $99.28 | -12.6% | Jan 10, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $93 | $96.39 | -28.0% | Mar 17, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $103.7 | -14.9% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $102.72 | -14.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $96.12 | -18.0% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Nicholas Campanella | $114 | $111.06 | -11.8% | Aug 23, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Nicholas Campanella | $125 | $113.8 | -3.3% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $115.58 | -5.6% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Ryan Levine | $120 | $112.82 | -7.1% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $107 | $103.52 | -17.2% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $110 | $100.21 | -14.9% | Dec 6, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Maheep Mandloi | $105 | $98.64 | -18.8% | Jul 13, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Gary Hovis | $106 | $96.88 | -18.0% | Jun 25, 2021 |
Track every rating change on DUK the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.1%
Up to 20 sessions
DUKSPY benchmark
Follow DUK with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
The most notable developments this quarter were (1) ESA signings accelerated to 7.6 GW total, with 2.7 GW added in Q1 alone; (2) regulatory approval was received to combine the two Carolina utilities, projected to deliver $2.3 billion in customer savings through 2040; and (3) a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion in clean-energy tax credits through 2028 was announced. Strategic transactions, including Brookfield's $2.8 billion minority investment in Duke Energy Florida and the $2.5 billion sale of Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee to Spire, generated over $5 billion in proceeds to fund the $103 billion capital plan.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $6.55-$6.80 was reaffirmed, maintaining the range raised in the prior quarter. The long-term 5%-7% EPS growth target through 2030 was reiterated. Capex outlook remains increasing, consistent with the $103 billion five-year capital plan. Guidance sentiment: maintained.
Key takeaways
- Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.93 beat the consensus estimate of $1.87 by 3.2%; revenue of $9.18 billion exceeded the $8.44 billion estimate by 8.8%.
- Full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $6.55-$6.80 was reaffirmed; long-term 5%-7% EPS growth target through 2030 was reiterated.
- Electric service agreements with data-center customers reached 7.6 GW, with 2.7 GW signed in the quarter alone.
- Regulatory approval for the Carolina utilities combination was received, projecting $2.3 billion in customer savings through 2040.
- A multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean-energy tax credits through 2028 was announced.
- Over $5 billion in proceeds from the Brookfield investment and Piedmont Tennessee sale strengthened the balance sheet to fund the $103 billion capital plan.
Management priorities
- Complete the Carolina utilities combination by January 1, 2027.
- Execute the 14-GW generation build-out, including gas combined-cycle plants in Anderson County, Person County, and Marshall.
- Pursue nuclear life-extension licenses and evaluate new nuclear build opportunities.
- Secure additional tax-credit monetization contracts to lock in customer savings.
- Accelerate ESA conversions and develop tariff mechanisms for large-load customers.
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T02:28:47.184832+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T02:28:47.182060+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.