Darden Restaurants, Inc. · DRI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2025

Darden raises FY2026 outlook as delivery and value initiatives gain traction

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: resilient same-restaurant sales, delivery expansion, affordability efforts and unit growth supported a raised FY2026 outlook. The investment case remains conditional on managing commodity and labor costs, proving delivery is incremental, and sustaining demand beyond the stronger first quarter.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $22.94B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.97 Consensus $2.00
EPS surprise -1.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.04B Consensus $3.04B
Revenue surprise +0.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -7.7% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -8.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 7.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -2.7% Up to 20 sessions
DRISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from maintained to raised guidance and emphasized stronger delivery, affordability and unit-growth execution. The new analysis also highlights beef and seafood inflation, potential delivery cannibalization and weaker expected second-quarter comps as nearer-term constraints.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2026 total sales growth guidance to 7.5%–8.5% and same-restaurant sales growth guidance to 2.5%–3.5%.

Key takeaways

  • Same-restaurant sales growth outperformed industry benchmarks, with overall growth of 4.7%.
  • Management raised FY2026 guidance while keeping pricing below inflation.
  • First-party Uber Direct delivery reached about 5% of sales, while affordability initiatives supported traffic and guest scores.
  • Commodity costs, especially beef and seafood, remain a pressure point.

Management priorities

  • Open about 65 new restaurants in FY2026, including 30 Olive Garden locations in Canada.
  • Expand lighter-portion menus and first-party Uber Direct delivery.
  • Develop smaller-footprint restaurant prototypes and improve speed of service.
  • Invest in manager development and operational consistency.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DRI REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $3B Q4 '24 actual $3B, miss Q1 '25 estimate $3B Q1 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q4 '26 actual $4B, miss Q1 '27 estimate $3B Q2 '27 estimate $3B Q3 '27 estimate $4B Q4 '27 estimate $4B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3864.4%
Neutral2033.9%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$199.72Current
$95Low
$198.28Average
$265High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 25, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Freedom Capital Markets Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $199.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$230$206.12 +15.2%Sep 25, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesNick Setyan$245$207.44 +22.7%Sep 25, 2026
Seaport GlobalEric Gonzalez$240$209.02 +20.2%Sep 16, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$245$218.61 +22.7%Sep 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$255$209.82 +27.7%Sep 14, 2026
See 138 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Darden Restaurants, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, focuses on the ownership and operation of full-service dining establishments across both the United States and Canada. As of May 29, 2022, the company's extensive portfolio comprised 1,867 directly managed restaurants. These included a significant presence from its flagship brands: 884 Olive Garden outlets, 546 LongHorn Steakhouse locations, 172 Cheddar's Scratch Kitchens, 85 Yard House venues, 62 Capital Grille branches, 45 Seasons 52 restaurants, 42 Bahama Breeze sites, 28 Eddie V's Prime Seafood establishments, and 3 Capital Burger eateries. In addition to its owned operations, Darden also oversees 60 franchised restaurants, specifically 35 Olive Garden units, 18 LongHorn Steakhouse units, 4 Cheddar's Scratch Kitchens, 2 Capital Grille locations, and 1 Bahama Breeze restaurant. The company, which originated in 1968, is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T22:00:42.310411+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T22:00:42.307399+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.