Domino's Pizza, Inc. · DPZ · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

DPZ Q1 2026: U.S. comps of 0.9% miss, FY outlook trimmed, shares fall ~9%

Domino's Q1 2026 (fiscal Q1 FY2026) was soft: U.S. same-store sales grew 0.9%, below internal expectations, while EPS of $4.13 missed consensus of $4.27 and revenue of $1.15B slightly missed $1.16B. Management lowered full-year comp guidance to low-single-digit growth but reaffirmed the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target, attributing the shortfall to macro pressure and aggressive competitor promotions. The stock fell about 9% on the session at roughly five times normal volume and drifted further lower. The bull case rests on H2 product innovation, the new AI-driven app and DomOS orchestration, continued store expansion, and buybacks and dividends; the bear case centers on macro softness, gas and commodity costs, value-driven competition, and DPE's international drag. Shares traded near $290.23 versus a consensus target of $375.20 (range $315-$480).

Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $9.69B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.13 Consensus $4.27
EPS surprise -3.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.15B Consensus $1.16B
Revenue surprise -1.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -8.8% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -9.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.4% Up to 20 sessions
DPZSPY benchmark

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What changed

Relative to the strong Q4 2025 report - which featured 8% operating profit growth, double-digit net store growth, a 15% dividend increase and an $80M buyback under a maintained guidance tone - Q1 2026 marks a clear softening. U.S. same-store sales slowed to 0.9%, full-year comp guidance was lowered to low-single-digit growth, and EPS and revenue both missed consensus. The market reaction was sharply negative: DPZ fell about 9% on the report session versus a +0.2% SPY move, followed by further drift. The stable element was the reaffirmed 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target.

Guidance delta

Full-year U.S. same-store sales guidance was lowered to low-single-digit growth on the Q1 2026 call, while management reaffirmed the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target and the 6% global retail-sales-growth ambition from Q4 2025. Reported Q1 results missed both EPS ($4.13 vs $4.27 estimated, -3.3%) and revenue ($1.15B vs $1.16B estimated, -1.0%). Capex outlook was not mentioned on the call. No explicit Q2 numeric guidance appears in the supplied analysis, so forward figures beyond these were not used.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 U.S. same-store sales grew only 0.9%, below internal expectations due to macro pressure and aggressive competitor promotions
  • Full-year comps outlook was revised to low-single-digit growth; the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target was reaffirmed unchanged
  • EPS of $4.13 and revenue of $1.15B missed consensus of $4.27 and $1.16B
  • Shares fell about 9% on the report session at roughly 5x normal volume, then drifted about 7% lower
  • New AI-powerered app, upgraded pizza tracker and DomOS orchestration are positioned to drive speed, accuracy and loyalty

Management priorities

  • Accelerate pizza-centric product innovation in the second half of 2026
  • Adjust the marketing calendar and media plan to counteract macro headwinds
  • Expand carryout share and enhance the customer experience via the new app
  • Maintain aggressive franchisee support and store expansion targets
  • Continue disciplined share repurchases and dividend increases

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DPZ EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3.39 Q1 '24 actual $3.58, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.68 Q2 '24 actual $4.03, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.71 Q3 '24 actual $4.19, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.93 Q2 '25 actual $3.81, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3.96 Q3 '25 actual $4.08, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.38 Q4 '25 actual $5.35, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.13, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.17 Q2 '26 actual $4.07, miss Q3 '26 estimate $4.38 Q4 '26 estimate $6.49 Q1 '27 estimate $4.57 Q2 '27 estimate $4.79
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2549.0%
Neutral2549.0%
Bearish12.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$292.14Current
$315Low
$439.31Average
$612High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 23, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 10, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 2, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
Loop Capital Hold BuyDowngradeAug 10, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 21, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 21, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 21, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 21, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainJul 21, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 21, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 16, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainJul 9, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 7, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 28, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainApr 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainApr 28, 2026
Benchmark Buy BuyMaintainApr 28, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainApr 28, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJan 7, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 15, 2025
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainOct 13, 2025
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 10, 2025
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 22, 2025
TD Securities Buy BuyMaintainApr 29, 2025
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainApr 29, 2025
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 2, 2025
Stephens& Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMar 3, 2025
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 25, 2025
HSBC Buy BuyMaintainApr 30, 2024
Gordon Haskett Buy HoldUpgradeJan 16, 2024
Northcoast Research Buy NeutralUpgradeJul 13, 2023
Credit Suisse Neutral NeutralMaintainApr 28, 2023
Cowen & Co. Market Perform Market PerformMaintainFeb 24, 2023
MKM Partners Neutral NeutralMaintainApr 29, 2022
CFRA Buy HoldUpgradeJul 7, 2020
Longbow Research Buy NeutralUpgradeMar 18, 2020
Stifel Nicolaus Hold BuyDowngradeFeb 21, 2020
Maxim Group Buy BuyMaintainJan 17, 2020
Kalinowski Research Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 3, 2019
Kalinowski Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 3, 2019
OTR Global Mixed PositiveDowngradeJul 10, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainApr 25, 2019
Argus Buy BuyMaintainJun 22, 2018
Nomura Buy NeutralUpgradeNov 29, 2017
Keybanc Overweight Sector WeightUpgradeJan 20, 2017
Miller Tabak Hold BuyDowngradeNov 5, 2014
Oriel Hold BuyDowngradeJul 3, 2013
Numis Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 3, 2013
Sidoti & Co. Hold BuyDowngradeJan 10, 2013
Feltl & Co. Hold HoldMaintainOct 16, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $292.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$325$297.12 +11.2%Sep 23, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$353$350.95 +20.8%Aug 10, 2026
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$420$333.67 +43.8%Jul 21, 2026
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$325$310.87 +11.2%Jul 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$370$309.85 +26.7%Jul 15, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$350$302.35 +19.8%Jul 9, 2026
UBSDennis Geiger$375$304.18 +28.4%Jul 2, 2026
RBC CapitalLogan Reich$325$282.28 +11.2%Jun 23, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$350$295.11 +19.8%Jun 23, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$425$336.34 +45.5%Apr 28, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$395$336.49 +35.2%Apr 28, 2026
RBC CapitalLogan Reich$350$335.3 +19.8%Apr 28, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$420$335.3 +43.8%Apr 28, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$390$335.3 +33.5%Apr 28, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$350$335.3 +19.8%Apr 28, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$430$335.3 +47.2%Apr 28, 2026
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$400$335.3 +36.9%Apr 27, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$315$334.98 +7.8%Apr 27, 2026
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$400$334.74 +36.9%Apr 27, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$480$368.13 +64.3%Apr 15, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$400$369.17 +36.9%Apr 15, 2026
UBSDennis Geiger$480$369.17 +64.3%Apr 15, 2026
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$470$412.42 +60.9%Feb 24, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$510$411.07 +74.6%Feb 24, 2026
William BlairAnalyst unavailable$540$398.5 +84.8%Feb 23, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$500$382.99 +71.2%Feb 19, 2026
UBSDennis Geiger$500$382.67 +71.2%Feb 13, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$450$413.87 +54.0%Jan 28, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$430$398.92 +47.2%Jan 22, 2026
Evercore ISIDavid Palmer$490$406.52 +67.7%Jan 8, 2026
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$485$406.5 +66.0%Jan 7, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$370$406.5 +26.7%Jan 7, 2026
Hovde GroupAnalyst unavailable$460$425.28 +57.5%Jan 5, 2026
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$490$425.05 +67.7%Dec 2, 2025
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$445$408.6 +52.3%Nov 24, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$500$412.7 +71.2%Oct 27, 2025
RBC CapitalLogan Reich$450$419.87 +54.0%Oct 15, 2025
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$455$406.37 +55.7%Oct 13, 2025
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$443$405.33 +51.6%Oct 10, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$450$411.43 +54.0%Oct 8, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$405$411.43 +38.6%Oct 8, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$535$411.43 +83.1%Oct 8, 2025
UBSDennis Geiger$540$476.72 +84.8%Jul 22, 2025
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$530$490.64 +81.4%Apr 28, 2025
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$535$485.88 +83.1%Apr 23, 2025
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$559$456.62 +91.3%Nov 8, 2024
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$480$420.99 +64.3%Oct 14, 2024
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$440$429.67 +50.6%Oct 14, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$500$427.36 +71.2%Oct 11, 2024
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$510$408.75 +74.6%Oct 11, 2024
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$422$408.75 +44.5%Oct 11, 2024
StephensJim Salera$420$429.15 +43.8%Oct 11, 2024
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$420$408.75 +43.8%Oct 11, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$470$408.75 +60.9%Oct 10, 2024
Goldman SachsTeddy Farley$515$410.46 +76.3%Oct 10, 2024
WedbushNick Setyan$470$413.4 +60.9%Oct 9, 2024
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$429$409.98 +46.8%Oct 7, 2024
Evercore ISIDavid Palmer$480$425.31 +64.3%Oct 7, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesSara Senatore$582$420.89 +99.2%Oct 4, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$510$405.74 +74.6%Sep 11, 2024
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$490$410.26 +67.7%Sep 6, 2024
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$500$404.17 +71.2%Jul 22, 2024
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$515$404.17 +76.3%Jul 21, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$525$404.17 +79.7%Jul 19, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$419$404.17 +43.4%Jul 19, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$480$409.11 +64.3%Jul 18, 2024
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$510$491.48 +74.6%Jul 14, 2024
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$580$493.73 +98.5%Jul 8, 2024
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$610$532.16 +108.8%Jun 17, 2024
Goldman SachsChristine Cho$612$531.4 +109.5%Jun 13, 2024
UBSDennis Geiger$600$523.4 +105.4%Jun 10, 2024
DNB MarketsAndrew Charles$580$531.66 +98.5%Apr 30, 2024
StephensJim Salera$513$533.62 +75.6%Apr 30, 2024
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$525$529.27 +79.7%Apr 30, 2024
HSBCMeredith Jensen$583$529.27 +99.6%Apr 30, 2024
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$530$529.27 +81.4%Apr 30, 2024
RBC CapitalChristopher Carril$575$527.13 +96.8%Apr 30, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$575$527.13 +96.8%Apr 30, 2024
JefferiesAlexander Slagle$512$527.13 +75.3%Apr 29, 2024
BTIGPeter Saleh$580$527.13 +98.5%Apr 29, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$565$521.71 +93.4%Apr 29, 2024
Wells FargoJon Tower$475$471.28 +62.6%Apr 23, 2024
JefferiesAndy Barish$480$488.1 +64.3%Apr 16, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$550$506.83 +88.3%Apr 11, 2024
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$580$482.86 +98.5%Apr 5, 2024
BTIGPeter Saleh$515$442.79 +76.3%Mar 18, 2024
Morgan StanleyJohn Ivankoe$430$445.34 +47.2%Feb 27, 2024
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$530$459 +81.4%Feb 27, 2024
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$370$410.14 +26.7%Jan 9, 2024
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$455$394.9 +55.7%Dec 8, 2023
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$435$346.81 +48.9%Oct 13, 2023
WedbushNick Setyan$445$351.81 +52.3%Oct 13, 2023
CitigroupJon Tower$398$356.42 +36.2%Oct 10, 2023
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$450$379.22 +54.0%Sep 26, 2023
StephensJoshua Long$365$385.5 +24.9%Jul 24, 2023
StephensJoshua Long$300$314.38 +2.7%Mar 24, 2023
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$334$297.42 +14.3%Feb 24, 2023
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$299$344.39 +2.3%Jan 5, 2023
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$441$383.06 +51.0%Nov 30, 2022
StephensJoshua Long$400$318.65 +36.9%Oct 14, 2022
StephensJoshua Long$335$333.26 +14.7%Oct 13, 2022
J.P. MorganJohn Ivankoe$320$301.76 +9.5%Oct 12, 2022
Credit SuisseLauren Silberman$375$307.82 +28.4%Oct 10, 2022
UBSDennis Geiger$385$316.44 +31.8%Oct 4, 2022
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$415$310.2 +42.1%Oct 3, 2022
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$430$320.14 +47.2%Sep 23, 2022
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$445$395.48 +52.3%Aug 2, 2022
Deutsche BankBrian Mullan$383$391.49 +31.1%Jul 13, 2022
Credit SuisseLauren Silberman$400$338 +36.9%Apr 29, 2022
MKM PartnersAnalyst unavailable$405$343.78 +38.6%Apr 29, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$398$343.98 +36.2%Apr 29, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$440$342.2 +50.6%Apr 29, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$424$353.88 +45.1%Apr 29, 2022
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$430$353.88 +47.2%Apr 29, 2022
WedbushNick Setyan$430$338 +47.2%Apr 29, 2022
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$400$353.88 +36.9%Apr 29, 2022
Deutsche BankBrian Mullan$380$353.88 +30.1%Apr 29, 2022
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$400$338 +36.9%Apr 29, 2022
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationJeff Farmer$325$338 +11.2%Apr 29, 2022
MKM PartnersBrett Levy$405$338 +38.6%Apr 29, 2022
RBC CapitalChristopher Carril$440$338 +50.6%Apr 29, 2022
MKM PartnersBrett Levy$440$378.16 +50.6%Apr 25, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$355$378.83 +21.5%Apr 25, 2022
UBSDennis Geiger$430$378.83 +47.2%Apr 25, 2022
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$440$391 +50.6%Apr 22, 2022
CitigroupJon Tower$487$387.24 +66.7%Apr 17, 2022
Cowen & Co.Andrew Charles$390$394.79 +33.5%Apr 8, 2022
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$413$405.47 +41.4%Mar 16, 2022
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$410$402.67 +40.3%Mar 3, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesSara Senatore$550$402.67 +88.3%Mar 3, 2022
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationJeff Farmer$460$422.04 +57.5%Mar 2, 2022
WedbushNick Setyan$475$422.04 +62.6%Mar 2, 2022
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$445$422.04 +52.3%Mar 2, 2022
MKM PartnersBrett Levy$490$422.04 +67.7%Mar 2, 2022
StephensJames Rutherford$425$422.04 +45.5%Mar 2, 2022
Deutsche BankBrian Mullan$440$430.98 +50.6%Mar 1, 2022
Stifel NicolausChris O`Cull$425$430.98 +45.5%Mar 1, 2022
UBSDennis Geiger$475$430.98 +62.6%Feb 28, 2022
JefferiesAlexander Slagle$500$526.88 +71.2%Dec 17, 2021
Wells FargoJon Tower$501$452.82 +71.5%Oct 15, 2021
Goldman SachsJared Garber$450$417.47 +54.0%May 25, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T17:31:06.968381+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T17:31:06.965278+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.