Domino's Pizza, Inc. · DPZ · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Domino’s Maintains Guidance as Product and Value Drive Growth

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: product and value initiatives, technology, aggregator reach, and store expansion provide a path for continued growth, while macro pressure, costs, and international execution remain material tests.

Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $9.91B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.35 Consensus $5.38
EPS surprise -0.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.54B Consensus $1.52B
Revenue surprise +1.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +4.1% Event window
SPY move -1.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.4% Up to 20 sessions
DPZSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shifts the focus from the prior quarter’s promotion and aggregator rollout toward a broader 2026 execution plan: maintained guidance, expanded technology investment, planned store growth, and explicit attention to DPE performance and insurance costs.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance and outlined 2026 targets of 3% U.S. comparable sales growth and 6% global retail-sales growth.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted market-share gains, net store growth, and franchisee profitability.
  • Product innovation and value promotions remained central growth drivers.
  • Technology upgrades, aggregator partnerships, and international expansion are key planned levers.
  • The main risks are macro pressure, insurance costs, weather, and DPE performance.

Management priorities

  • Expand product innovation, value promotions, carryout, and loyalty initiatives.
  • Complete the upgraded e-commerce and mobile-app rollout.
  • Improve order fulfillment through technology orchestration.
  • Open approximately 175 net U.S. stores and approximately 800 net international stores, with focus on China, India, and DPE turnaround.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DPZ EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $4.38 Q4 '23 actual $4.48, beat Q1 '24 estimate $3.39 Q1 '24 actual $3.58, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.68 Q2 '24 actual $4.03, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.71 Q3 '24 actual $4.19, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.93 Q2 '25 actual $3.81, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3.96 Q3 '25 actual $4.08, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.38 Q4 '25 actual $5.35, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.13, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.17 Q2 '26 actual $4.07, miss Q3 '26 estimate $4.37 Q4 '26 estimate $6.49 Q1 '27 estimate $4.58 Q2 '27 estimate $4.80
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2549.0%
Neutral2549.0%
Bearish12.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$295Current
$315Low
$439.31Average
$612High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 23, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 10, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 2, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $295. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$325$297.12 +10.2%Sep 23, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$353$350.95 +19.7%Aug 10, 2026
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$420$333.67 +42.4%Jul 21, 2026
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$325$310.87 +10.2%Jul 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$370$309.85 +25.4%Jul 15, 2026
See 136 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T00:46:09.632170+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T00:46:09.628887+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.