Dollar Tree, Inc. · DLTR · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Dollar Tree Maintains EPS Outlook as 3.0 Stores Gain Traction

The quarter supports a constructive but conditional view: stronger traffic and ticket from the 3.0 format, store expansion and customer acquisition are positive demand signals, while tariff absorption, cost inflation and execution of the Family Dollar divestiture remain material tests.

Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Defensive $22.80B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.26 Consensus $1.21
EPS surprise +4.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.64B Consensus $4.54B
Revenue surprise +2.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -8.4% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -8.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +15.0% Up to 20 sessions
DLTRSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management highlighted stronger 3.0-store performance, the planned Family Dollar sale after regulatory approval, and tariff mitigation as central developments. The full-year adjusted EPS outlook was unchanged, while Q2 was expected to absorb greater cost pressure.

Guidance delta

Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was maintained at $5.15-$5.65, despite expected near-term Q2 cost pressure.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 results exceeded the company's outlook, with net sales and comparable-store sales above guidance.
  • The multi-price 3.0 format is driving traffic, ticket and discretionary sales, and is expanding across the store base.
  • Management said five tariff-mitigation levers should offset most of the current higher tariffs.
  • The planned Family Dollar divestiture is intended to sharpen focus, improve the balance sheet and provide $800 million of cash proceeds.
  • Near-term Q2 profitability faces tariff, SG&A and TSA cost pressure.

Management priorities

  • Continue converting stores to the 3.0 multi-price format, targeting 50% of the base by year-end.
  • Execute the Family Dollar divestiture and associated balance-sheet focus.
  • Manage tariff exposure through the five mitigation levers.
  • Invest in stores and rebuild the Marietta, Oklahoma distribution center.
  • Continue share repurchases as the primary capital-allocation priority.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DLTR REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $7B Q3 '24 actual $7B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $9B Q4 '24 actual $9B, miss Q1 '25 estimate $8B Q1 '25 actual $8B, match Q2 '25 estimate $7B Q2 '25 actual $7B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $5B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5B Q3 '26 actual $5B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $5B Q4 '26 actual $5B, miss Q1 '27 estimate $5B Q1 '27 actual $5B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $5B Q3 '27 estimate $5B Q4 '27 estimate $6B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold47 ratings
Bullish2553.2%
Neutral1838.3%
Bearish48.5%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$118.64Current
$64Low
$131.62Average
$200.9High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Loop Capital Buy HoldUpgradeOct 1, 2026
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainSep 29, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 4, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 31, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $118.64. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$140$114.02 +18.0%Oct 1, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$135$116.02 +13.8%Sep 29, 2026
BarclaysSeth Sigman$160$131.04 +34.9%Sep 4, 2026
Goldman SachsKate McShane$131$126.8 +10.4%Aug 31, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$121$128.26 +2.0%Aug 31, 2026
See 123 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T18:30:45.381680+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T18:30:45.378849+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.