DraftKings Inc. · DKNG · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

DraftKings lowers guidance as live betting and AI remain growth levers

The supplied analysis supports a mixed picture: live betting, improved structural hold, acquisitions and AI provide growth levers, but the guidance reduction and exposure to sports outcomes, taxes and regulatory uncertainty temper the outlook.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $9.38B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.11
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.47B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.5% Event window
SPY move -0.1% Same window
Abnormal move +2.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.1% Up to 20 sessions
DKNGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment shifted from raised to lowered. The current analysis emphasizes a 10.4% structural hold, live betting above half of total handle, broader AI deployment and a $1 billion buyback authorization, while also flagging customer-friendly outcomes and state tax increases.

Guidance delta

FY2025 guidance was lowered slightly, with the supplied analysis attributing the change to a $170 million headwind from customer-friendly outcomes.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted revenue growth of about 32% year over year while lowering FY2025 guidance after customer-friendly outcomes.
  • Structural hold improved to 10.4%, supported by a 370-basis-point increase in parlay mix.
  • Live betting exceeded half of total handle, while AI deployment expanded across pricing, risk management and customer service.
  • The balance sheet supports continued share repurchases, according to the supplied analysis.

Management priorities

  • Broaden DraftKings+ after its limited New York launch.
  • Integrate Jackpocket into the DraftKings app in the back half of the year.
  • Upgrade live-betting products across basketball, baseball and golf.
  • Expand AI use across pricing, risk management, customer service and product development.
  • Pursue selective acquisitions and evaluate international expansion.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DKNG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $-0.29 Q1 '24 actual $-0.30, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.01 Q2 '24 actual $0.12, beat Q3 '24 estimate $-0.42 Q3 '24 actual $-0.60, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.15 Q2 '25 actual $0.38, beat Q3 '25 estimate $-0.43 Q3 '25 actual $-0.26, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.36 Q4 '25 actual $0.36, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.22 Q1 '26 actual $0.20, miss Q2 '26 estimate $0.02 Q2 '26 actual $-0.14, miss Q3 '26 estimate $-0.36 Q4 '26 estimate $0.46 Q1 '27 estimate $0.16
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy48 ratings
Bullish3675.0%
Neutral816.7%
Bearish48.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$18.9Current
$15Low
$41.82Average
$105High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainOct 8, 2026
Macquarie Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 7, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeOct 5, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
SusquehannaJoseph Stauff$27$19.15 +42.9%Oct 8, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$30$19.75 +58.7%Oct 7, 2026
UBSRobin Farley$48$22.58 +154.0%Sep 18, 2026
BernsteinIan Moore$29$24.21 +53.4%Sep 3, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$40$23.44 +111.6%Sep 2, 2026
See 171 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

DraftKings Inc. operates as a leading digital enterprise specializing in sports entertainment and gaming. The company provides sophisticated multi-channel sports betting and gaming technology solutions to operators across 17 countries, facilitating diverse entertainment experiences. Directly, DraftKings manages its own iGaming services under the DraftKings brand in five U.S. states, and separately operates Golden Nugget Online Gaming, another iGaming offering, in three states. Its Sportsbook platform is accessible for both mobile and physical wagers in 18 U.S.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-24T00:01:17.206701+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T06:50:45.804739+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T06:50:45.801976+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.