Deere & Company · DE · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026

Deere raises outlook as construction strength offsets farm-market risks

The quarter supports a constructive but qualified view: strong construction demand, order backlogs, and precision-ag adoption supported a higher outlook, while uneven farm markets, tariff exposure, and potential margin pressure remain constraints.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $184.63B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.10 Consensus $4.69
EPS surprise +8.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $12.61B Consensus $10.81B
Revenue surprise +16.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.9% Event window
SPY move -0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +7.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +10.2% Up to 20 sessions
DESPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, the company reported stronger equipment profitability, raised full-year net income and cash-flow guidance, reduced direct tariff expense after policy changes, and highlighted early customer feedback on new excavators plus accelerating technology adoption.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year net income guidance to $4.75-$5 billion, cash flow guidance to $5-$5.5 billion, and kept construction and forestry sales growth near 20%.

Key takeaways

  • Equipment operations delivered 6% sales growth and a 14.4% operating margin.
  • Construction and forestry benefited from infrastructure demand, a 4-5 month order backlog, and technology adoption.
  • Tariff exposure fell to $1.1 billion after policy changes, but remains a FY27 headwind.
  • Precision-ag adoption is expanding, including See & Spray, advanced planters, and planned AI capabilities.
  • Agriculture demand remains exposed to commodity volatility, input costs, and softer conditions in South America and Europe.

Management priorities

  • Ramp new excavator models through 2027
  • Expand precision-ag and AI-enabled Operations Center capabilities
  • Continue ExactRate, ExactShot, and FurrowVision rollout
  • Support dealer and independent rental fleet expansion
  • Maintain early-order programs for sprayers and planters

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DE REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $13B Q4 '23 actual $15B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $10B Q1 '24 actual $12B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $13B Q2 '24 actual $15B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $11B Q3 '24 actual $13B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $10B Q3 '25 actual $12B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $10B Q4 '25 actual $12B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $8B Q1 '26 actual $8B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $12B Q2 '26 actual $12B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $11B Q3 '26 actual $13B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $11B Q1 '27 estimate $9B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold46 ratings
Bullish2043.5%
Neutral2043.5%
Bearish613.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$683.99Previous close
$325Low
$565.91Average
$813High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Evercore ISI Group Outperform In LineUpgradeSep 3, 2026
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 31, 2026
Baird Outperform NeutralUpgradeAug 31, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 24, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 24, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $683.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$813$698.37 +18.9%Sep 2, 2026
Raymond JamesTim Thein$730$648.34 +6.7%Aug 31, 2026
Robert W. BairdMircea Dobre$800$630.33 +17.0%Aug 31, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$804$657.08 +17.5%Aug 24, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$760$655.79 +11.1%Aug 24, 2026
See 83 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Deere & Company is a global manufacturer and distributor of a wide range of equipment. The company's operations are organized into four primary business segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment focuses on large-scale farming and advanced agricultural practices, offering medium-sized tractors, various harvesting machinery (including combines, cotton pickers, and sugarcane harvesters), front-end harvesting tools, sugarcane loaders, pull-behind scrapers, and essential tillage and seeding implements. It also supplies specialized application equipment like sprayers and nutrient management systems, along with soil preparation machinery, primarily serving grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment caters to smaller farming needs and land maintenance. Its product line includes utility tractors along with their complementary loaders and attachments.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-20T16:14:01.379552+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-21T01:23:13.071796+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T11:50:49.011385+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T11:50:49.008248+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.