Chevron Corporation · CVX · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Chevron’s Record Production Keeps Hess Integration in Focus

The supplied analysis provides meaningful evidence for resilient operating demand and execution, particularly through record production, strong cash generation and Hess integration. It does not establish that earnings growth will persist over the next year; that depends on commodity prices, integration delivery, capital allocation and execution across new projects.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $411.80B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.85 Consensus $1.69
EPS surprise +9.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $48.17B Consensus $48.94B
Revenue surprise -1.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +2.7% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +2.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.3% Up to 20 sessions
CVXSPY benchmark

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Why did CVX rise 2.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in CVX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for CVX after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shifts from a raised guidance backdrop to maintained guidance. It adds record production above 4 million boe/d, ACES green-hydrogen start-up, Hess synergies on track and a $1 billion TCO loan repayment with a planned Q4 pit-stop, while highlighting the El Segundo refinery fire and regulatory review.

Guidance delta

Maintained: management reaffirmed full-year capital-expenditure guidance and expects 6–8% production growth excluding Hess legacy assets.

Key takeaways

  • Record third-quarter production exceeded 4 million boe/d, supported by Hess legacy assets and Permian performance.
  • Management reported $9.9 billion of operating cash flow and $7 billion of free cash flow, while saying Hess synergies remain on track toward the $1 billion target.
  • The quarter added operational and strategic markers—ACES green-hydrogen start-up, frontier exploration plans and the CPChem-Qatar Energy venture—alongside refinery and geopolitical risks.

Management priorities

  • Deliver Hess integration synergies and improve efficiency across unconventional assets.
  • Advance the ACES green-hydrogen project and CPChem’s Qatar Energy joint venture.
  • Pursue frontier exploration while managing the TCO Kazakhstan concession process and the El Segundo refinery review.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CVX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $2.87 Q1 '24 actual $2.93, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.93 Q2 '24 actual $2.55, miss Q3 '24 estimate $2.42 Q3 '24 actual $2.51, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.73 Q2 '25 actual $1.77, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.69 Q3 '25 actual $1.85, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.41 Q4 '25 actual $1.52, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.00 Q1 '26 actual $1.41, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5.55 Q2 '26 actual $6.06, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.73 Q4 '26 estimate $3.63 Q1 '27 estimate $3.18
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish3465.4%
Neutral1426.9%
Bearish47.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$206.69Current
$87Low
$181.86Average
$250High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 28, 2026
HSBC Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 3, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 3, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $206.69. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$90$205.58 -56.5%Sep 25, 2026
HSBCKim Fustier$250$205.58 +21.0%Sep 25, 2026
BMO CapitalPhillip Jungwirth$235$211.76 +13.7%Sep 3, 2026
Piper SandlerJohn Royall$243$211.76 +17.6%Sep 3, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$230$211.76 +11.3%Sep 3, 2026
See 119 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas, from their initial exploration and development to production and subsequent transportation. This also encompasses the processing, liquefaction, transit, and regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as pipeline transport of crude oil and the movement, storage, and sale of natural gas. Additionally, this segment manages a facility dedicated to converting natural gas into liquid fuels. In contrast, the Downstream segment is tasked with refining crude oil into a variety of petroleum products.…

Historical context

All CVX earnings
+2.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.4%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+3.3%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T09:50:41.559159+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T09:50:41.556344+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.