Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish2147.7%
Neutral2045.5%
Bearish36.8%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Carvana Co. · CVNA · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Carvana Q1 2026: Record Revenue and Units as Reconditioning Tools Begin to Scale
Carvana extended its record-breaking run into FY2026 Q1, posting all-time highs in units sold (187k), revenue ($6.43B), GAAP operating income ($581M), and adjusted EBITDA ($672M), representing 40% year-over-year growth. The company beat consensus EPS by 7.4% and revenue by 5.1%. Management's focus has shifted from broad growth to operational leverage: new reconditioning tools and centralized planning are delivering measurable labor productivity gains, while ADESA integration is replacing greenfield expansion as the primary capacity strategy. The maintained 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin target and 3-million-unit annual goal by 2030-35 remain the lodestar, but the near-term question is whether rising advertising spend per unit and AI/technology capex will compress margins before efficiency gains fully materialize. The stock's -1.2% abnormal move on the print and -7.8% subsequent drift…
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$72.46B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCarvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.34
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
+7.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.43B
Consensus $6.12B
Revenue surprise
+5.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$67.99Current
$5.5Low
$284.45Average
$550High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jun 2, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 21, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2022 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2022 | |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 22, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 9, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Sell | Sell | Maintain | Mar 20, 2020 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 9, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 8, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2018 |
| Barrington Research | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2018 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Sep 22, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 3, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $67.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | John Babcock | $94 | $64.26 | +38.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $85 | $64.18 | +25.0% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $102 | $64.18 | +50.0% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $120 | $67.72 | +76.5% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $88 | $69.53 | +29.4% | May 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | John Babcock | $93 | $69.9 | +36.8% | May 14, 2026 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $97 | $77.94 | +42.7% | May 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $537 | $385.74 | +689.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $380.88 | +532.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $600 | $396.73 | +782.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $396.73 | +664.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $440 | $396.73 | +547.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $396.73 | +598.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $485 | $332.79 | +613.3% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $332.79 | +561.9% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $440 | $331.1 | +547.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $320 | $326.76 | +370.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $390 | $348 | +473.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Lee Horowitz | $519 | $334.83 | +663.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $455 | $361.52 | +569.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $525 | $473.81 | +672.2% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | John Babcock | $530 | $442.19 | +679.5% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $458.61 | +686.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $545 | $468.26 | +701.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $500 | $471.31 | +635.4% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $462.31 | +635.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $550 | $465.76 | +708.9% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $465 | $456.33 | +583.9% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $447.98 | +517.7% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Joseph Spak | $450 | $374.31 | +561.9% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Carvana to Outperform | $400 | $309.88 | +488.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $313.25 | +481.0% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $326.88 | +473.6% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $320.85 | +481.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $315.99 | +429.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $460 | $353.95 | +576.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $333.94 | +561.9% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $450 | $329.24 | +561.9% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $377.24 | +598.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $485 | $377.24 | +613.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $333.59 | +635.4% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $390.24 | +525.1% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $390.24 | +576.6% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Carvana to Outperform | $450 | $332.12 | +561.9% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $343.39 | +547.2% | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $340 | $302.25 | +400.1% | May 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $290 | $305.52 | +326.5% | May 15, 2025 |
| Stephens | Jeff Lick | $300 | $284.53 | +341.2% | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $330 | $253.11 | +385.4% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $260 | $235.68 | +282.4% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $225 | $207.31 | +230.9% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $300 | $207.31 | +341.2% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $240 | $207.31 | +253.0% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $240 | $207.31 | +253.0% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $295 | $207.31 | +333.9% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $250 | $197.35 | +267.7% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael McGovern | $210 | $190.3 | +208.9% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ronald Josey | $195 | $176.1 | +186.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Chris Bottiglieri | $126 | $175.72 | +85.3% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael McGovern | $185 | $156.58 | +172.1% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $157 | $141.9 | +130.9% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jeff Lick | $190 | $133.54 | +179.5% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $170 | $151.33 | +150.0% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $110 | $150.33 | +61.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $175 | $133.23 | +157.4% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $155 | $135.55 | +128.0% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $160 | $129.54 | +135.3% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $125 | $122.97 | +83.9% | May 7, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $110 | $87.09 | +61.8% | May 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $130 | $87.09 | +91.2% | May 2, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $65 | $71.15 | -4.4% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $85 | $76.28 | +25.0% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $90 | $85.3 | +32.4% | Mar 8, 2024 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $42 | $44.11 | -38.2% | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $9 | $9.2 | -86.8% | May 5, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $5 | $4.54 | -92.6% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $5.5 | $4.83 | -91.9% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Needham | Needham Needham | $14 | $8.76 | -79.4% | Nov 6, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $73 | $40.34 | +7.4% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $75 | $25.38 | +10.3% | Jul 23, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $50 | $22.07 | -26.5% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $80 | $38.31 | +17.7% | May 16, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $40 | $37.4 | -41.2% | May 13, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $40 | $30 | -41.2% | May 12, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Rajat Gupta | $70 | $36.68 | +3.0% | May 11, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $57.92 | +32.4% | May 3, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $59.59 | +69.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $140 | $58.58 | +105.9% | May 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $73.99 | +39.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $92.5 | +238.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $92.5 | +76.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $92.5 | +61.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $92.5 | +44.1% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $121 | $83.14 | +78.0% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $110 | $83.14 | +61.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $150 | $83.14 | +120.6% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $85 | $87.17 | +25.0% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $150 | $92.5 | +120.6% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $101.81 | +150.0% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $138 | $101.77 | +103.0% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Rajat Gupta CFA | $140 | $101.77 | +105.9% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $360 | $123.33 | +429.5% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $210 | $152.57 | +208.9% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Rosner | $130 | $152.57 | +91.2% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | John Blackledge | $300 | $152.57 | +341.2% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $180 | $126.05 | +164.7% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $200 | $126.05 | +194.2% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $200 | $126.05 | +194.2% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Nat Schindler | $320 | $146.94 | +370.7% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $430 | $157.9 | +532.4% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $375 | $184.71 | +451.6% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Jones CFA | $405 | $350.66 | +495.7% | Aug 18, 2021 |
| JMP Securities | Ronald Josey | $470 | $356.34 | +591.3% | Aug 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CVNA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.8%
Up to 20 sessions
CVNASPY benchmark
Follow CVNA with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 set new company records: 187,000 units sold, $6.43B revenue, $581M GAAP operating income, and $672M adjusted EBITDA, up 40% year-over-year. EPS of $0.34 beat the $0.32 consensus by 7.4%; revenue of $6.43B beat the $6.12B estimate by 5.1%. New reconditioning tools and centralized planning systems were introduced to boost labor efficiency across facilities. Strategic shift from greenfield site development to ADESA integration and selective build-outs for capacity expansion. Advertising expense per unit is rising as Carvana invests in brand awareness during an early-stage e-commerce auto adoption phase. Stellantis dealership acquisitions were mentioned, signaling potential inorganic growth vectors.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained. Management reiterated its medium-term targets of 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin and 3 million units annually by 2030-35, consistent with the prior quarter's outlook. No upward revision despite the record quarter, suggesting management prefers to under-promise on near-term margin trajectory while reinvesting in advertising and technology.
Key takeaways
- Q1 set new records for units sold (187k), revenue ($6.43B), and operating profitability, extending the momentum from FY2025's 43% unit growth.
- Reconditioning tools and centralized planning are delivering measurable labor productivity gains, addressing the scaling challenge flagged in Q4 2025.
- Record GAAP operating income of $581M and adjusted EBITDA of $672M demonstrate improving operating leverage.
- Capex will focus on expanding existing ADESA facilities and selective build-outs, with greenfield projects de-prioritized for a more capital-efficient growth path.
- Advertising spend per unit is rising to build awareness, reflecting management's view that the market is still early in e-commerce auto adoption.
- The company remains on track for its 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin and 3-million-unit annual targets by 2030-35.
Management priorities
- Roll out new reconditioning and manager tools to all facilities over the coming months.
- Expand production capacity through ADESA integrations and selective facility build-outs.
- Increase advertising spend to deepen awareness, understanding, and trust.
- Invest in AI and technology to support operational scalability.
- Maintain focus on achieving 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin and scaling to 3 million units per year.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T13:43:24.875548+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T13:43:24.872435+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.