Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2146.7%
Neutral2146.7%
Bearish36.6%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Carvana Co. · CVNA · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Carvana Posts Record Q3 as Delivery, Finance Initiatives Scale
The current analysis supports a constructive operating trajectory: record unit growth, strong revenue expansion, improving scale economics, loan-sale partnerships, and early same-day delivery gains. The case remains dependent on execution, credit performance, delivery and reconditioning expansion, and the ability to fund growth without losing margin discipline.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$69.96B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.21
Consensus $0.27
EPS surprise
-22.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.65B
Consensus $5.11B
Revenue surprise
+10.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-13.8%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-12.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+22.8%
Up to 20 sessions
CVNASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CVNA FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CVNA fall 13.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in CVNA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for CVNA after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Carvana reported another step-up in scale and added more detail on same-day delivery, AI-enabled automation, and expanded loan-sale agreements. Management continued to emphasize ADESA capacity and the long-term unit and margin targets, while the main watch items remained cost per unit, advertising, seasonality, vehicle demand, and subprime credit risk.
Guidance delta
Management maintained Q4 guidance and its multi-year goal of 3 million units with a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Key takeaways
- Retail units reached a record 155,941, up 44% year over year.
- Revenue rose 55% year over year to $5.647 billion, while adjusted EBITDA reached $637 million.
- Loan-sale agreements, same-day delivery, AI automation, and ADESA capacity were central execution themes.
- Management described Phoenix delivery as a model for broader rollout, while credit, seasonality, and cost discipline remain risks.
Management priorities
- Expand same-day delivery beyond Phoenix.
- Add reconditioning capacity and broaden ADESA wholesale capabilities.
- Continue AI integration across finance verification, registration, customer service, and website operations.
- Grow loan-sale partnerships and finance attach rates.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$63.77Current
$5.5Low
$241.22Average
$537High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 21, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2022 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2022 | |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 22, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 9, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Sell | Sell | Maintain | Mar 20, 2020 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 9, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 8, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2018 |
| Barrington Research | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2018 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Sep 22, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 3, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $63.77. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $63.62 | +41.1% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $88 | $60.5 | +38.0% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $87 | $70.11 | +36.4% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Benjamin Black | $80 | $60.09 | +25.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Joseph Spak | $83 | $61.43 | +30.2% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $67 | $59.14 | +5.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $58.46 | +28.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $75 | $59.73 | +17.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $72 | $66.33 | +12.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.33 | +25.5% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $90 | $66.33 | +41.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | John Babcock | $94 | $64.26 | +47.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $85 | $64.18 | +33.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $102 | $64.18 | +59.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $120 | $67.72 | +88.2% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $88 | $69.53 | +38.0% | May 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | John Babcock | $93 | $69.9 | +45.8% | May 14, 2026 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $97 | $77.94 | +52.1% | May 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $537 | $385.74 | +742.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $380.88 | +574.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $600 | $396.73 | +840.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $396.73 | +715.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $440 | $396.73 | +590.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $396.73 | +644.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $485 | $332.79 | +660.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $332.79 | +605.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $440 | $331.1 | +590.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $320 | $326.76 | +401.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $390 | $348 | +511.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Lee Horowitz | $519 | $334.83 | +713.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $455 | $361.52 | +613.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $525 | $473.81 | +723.3% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | John Babcock | $530 | $442.19 | +731.1% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $458.61 | +739.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $545 | $468.26 | +754.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $500 | $471.31 | +684.1% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $462.31 | +684.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $550 | $465.76 | +762.5% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $465 | $456.33 | +629.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $447.98 | +558.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Joseph Spak | $450 | $374.31 | +605.7% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Carvana to Outperform | $400 | $309.88 | +527.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $313.25 | +519.4% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $326.88 | +511.6% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $320.85 | +519.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $315.99 | +464.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $460 | $353.95 | +621.3% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $333.94 | +605.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $450 | $329.24 | +605.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $377.24 | +644.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $485 | $377.24 | +660.5% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $333.59 | +684.1% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $390.24 | +566.5% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $390.24 | +621.3% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Carvana to Outperform | $450 | $332.12 | +605.7% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $343.39 | +590.0% | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $340 | $302.25 | +433.2% | May 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $290 | $305.52 | +354.8% | May 15, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $250 | $284.53 | +292.0% | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $330 | $253.11 | +417.5% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $260 | $235.68 | +307.7% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $225 | $207.31 | +252.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $300 | $207.31 | +370.4% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Craig Kennison | $240 | $207.31 | +276.4% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $240 | $207.31 | +276.4% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $295 | $207.31 | +362.6% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $250 | $197.35 | +292.0% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael McGovern | $210 | $190.3 | +229.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ronald Josey | $195 | $176.1 | +205.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Chris Bottiglieri | $126 | $175.72 | +97.6% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael McGovern | $185 | $156.58 | +190.1% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $157 | $141.9 | +146.2% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jeff Lick | $190 | $133.54 | +197.9% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $170 | $151.33 | +166.6% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $110 | $150.33 | +72.5% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | David Lantz | $175 | $133.23 | +174.4% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| BTIG | Marvin Fong | $155 | $135.55 | +143.1% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $160 | $129.54 | +150.9% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $125 | $122.97 | +96.0% | May 7, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $110 | $87.09 | +72.5% | May 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $130 | $87.09 | +103.9% | May 2, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $65 | $71.15 | +1.9% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $85 | $76.28 | +33.3% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $90 | $85.3 | +41.1% | Mar 8, 2024 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $42 | $44.11 | -34.1% | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $9 | $9.2 | -85.9% | May 5, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $5 | $4.54 | -92.2% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $5.5 | $4.83 | -91.4% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Needham | Needham Needham | $14 | $8.76 | -78.0% | Nov 6, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $73 | $40.34 | +14.5% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $75 | $25.38 | +17.6% | Jul 23, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $50 | $22.07 | -21.6% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $80 | $38.31 | +25.5% | May 16, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $40 | $37.4 | -37.3% | May 13, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $40 | $30 | -37.3% | May 12, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Rajat Gupta | $70 | $36.68 | +9.8% | May 11, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $57.92 | +41.1% | May 3, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $59.59 | +80.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $140 | $58.58 | +119.5% | May 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $73.99 | +49.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $92.5 | +260.7% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $92.5 | +88.2% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $92.5 | +72.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $92.5 | +53.7% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Needham | Chris Pierce | $121 | $83.14 | +89.7% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $110 | $83.14 | +72.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $150 | $83.14 | +135.2% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $85 | $87.17 | +33.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $150 | $92.5 | +135.2% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $101.81 | +166.6% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $138 | $101.77 | +116.4% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Rajat Gupta CFA | $140 | $101.77 | +119.5% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $360 | $123.33 | +464.5% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $210 | $152.57 | +229.3% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Rosner | $130 | $152.57 | +103.9% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | John Blackledge | $300 | $152.57 | +370.4% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $180 | $126.05 | +182.3% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $200 | $126.05 | +213.6% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $200 | $126.05 | +213.6% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Nat Schindler | $320 | $146.94 | +401.8% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $430 | $157.9 | +574.3% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Colantuoni | $375 | $184.71 | +488.1% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Jones CFA | $405 | $350.66 | +535.1% | Aug 18, 2021 |
| JMP Securities | Ronald Josey | $470 | $356.34 | +637.0% | Aug 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CVNA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCarvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.
Historical context
All CVNA earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the CVNA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T13:20:44.382817+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T13:20:44.380029+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.