CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock · CRWV · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

CoreWeave raises outlook as AI demand drives capacity expansion

The current analysis supports the view that strong AI demand and contracted backlog can underpin continued growth, but the one-year case depends on converting capacity and backlog into revenue without allowing capex, margin, financing, or supply-chain pressures to overwhelm operating leverage.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $48.32B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.56 Consensus $-0.50
EPS surprise -11.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.57B Consensus $1.55B
Revenue surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -18.5% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -18.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.0% Up to 20 sessions
CRWVSPY benchmark

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Why did CRWV fall 18.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in CRWV's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CRWV after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, management’s posture is more expansionary: guidance sentiment is raised, the capacity roadmap is larger, and the company is emphasizing proprietary-stack licensing and new infrastructure products. The analysis also makes the near-term cost of that expansion more explicit through expected margin pressure.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment moved from maintained in the prior analysis to raised in the current analysis, alongside a materially more aggressive capacity and capex plan.

Key takeaways

  • Management described relentless AI workload demand and reported strong growth with a $66.8 billion contracted revenue backlog.
  • The company plans more than $30 billion of 2026 capex and over 5 GW of additional data-center capacity by 2030.
  • The expanded NVIDIA relationship includes licensing of CoreWeave’s proprietary cloud stack and a reported strategic investment.
  • The central tension is high visibility into demand versus near-term margin pressure and financing risk from rapid expansion.

Management priorities

  • Scale data-center capacity across North America and Europe.
  • Bring Rubin GPU, Vera CPU, and BlueField storage offerings to market.
  • Cross-sell storage, CPU, and software services across the platform.
  • Monetize the proprietary cloud stack through licensing and continue strategic acquisitions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CRWV EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 5 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '25 estimate $-0.23 Q2 '25 actual $-0.27, miss Q3 '25 estimate $-0.40 Q3 '25 actual $-0.08, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-0.50 Q4 '25 actual $-0.56, miss Q1 '26 estimate $-0.92 Q1 '26 actual $-1.11, miss Q2 '26 estimate $-1.21 Q2 '26 actual $-1.03, beat Q3 '26 estimate $-1.26 Q4 '26 estimate $-0.67 Q1 '27 estimate $-0.68 Q2 '27 estimate $-0.59

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy31 ratings
Bullish2167.8%
Neutral929.0%
Bearish13.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$89.62Current
$58Low
$131.39Average
$250High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
Freedom Capital Markets Buy BuyMaintainSep 30, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 24, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 24, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 21, 2026
Show 26 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $89.62. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Rosenblatt SecuritiesJohn McPeake$250$87.12 +179.0%Oct 1, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$120$86.76 +33.9%Sep 22, 2026
BTG PactualAnalyst unavailable$125$85.66 +39.5%Sep 21, 2026
Truist FinancialArvind Ramnani$165$83.84 +84.1%Aug 24, 2026
Goldman SachsGabriela Borges$139$89.76 +55.1%Aug 21, 2026
See 64 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

CoreWeave, Inc. operates a specialized cloud computing platform designed to empower generative AI (GenAI) applications. It constructs the fundamental infrastructure necessary to manage intensive compute workloads for large enterprises. The company's comprehensive suite of offerings includes high-performance GPU and CPU compute resources, robust storage solutions, advanced networking capabilities, and fully managed services. Clients can choose from flexible virtual servers or powerful bare-metal options. Beyond core hardware, its platform integrates sophisticated tools like a fleet lifecycle controller, a node lifecycle controller, Tensorizer, and advanced observability features. CoreWeave's expertise also extends to specialized services, such as visual effects (VFX) and rendering, AI model training, AI inference, and "Mission Control." Originally incorporated in 2017 as Atlantic Crypto Corporation, the company rebranded to CoreWeave, Inc. in December 2019 and is headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey.

Historical context

All CRWV earnings
+19.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-11.4%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T20:16:03.012318+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T20:16:03.009288+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.