Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd · CRDO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Credo pairs raised FY26 outlook with higher capex and concentration risk

The supplied evidence supports the research hypothesis for Credo: strong AI-related connectivity demand, raised FY26 guidance, and planned customer expansion provide support. The thesis remains conditional because concentration, tariffs, higher capex, supply-chain execution, and possible mix-driven margin pressure could offset growth.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $31.90B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.35 Consensus $0.27
EPS surprise +27.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $170.0M Consensus $159.6M
Revenue surprise +6.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +14.8% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +14.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +24.3% Up to 20 sessions
CRDOSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management moved from a prior-quarter focus on AEC growth, PCIe expansion, and additional hyperscaler qualification to a raised FY26 outlook above $800 million, a planned doubling of CapEx, and broader emphasis on 800Gb optical DSPs, 7-meter AECs, PCIe Gen6 retimers, and PILOT software.

Guidance delta

Raised: FY26 revenue guidance is above $800 million, with non-GAAP net margin approaching 40%.

Key takeaways

  • FY25 revenue reached $437 million, up 126% year over year, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
  • AEC cables, optical DSPs, and PCIe Gen6 retimers remain the main growth engines.
  • Management plans to add two hyperscalers in FY26, but the largest customer accounted for 61% of Q4 revenue.
  • CapEx is expected to roughly double for 3nm tape-outs and expanded production equipment.

Management priorities

  • Scale AEC, optical DSP, and PCIe Gen6 retimer product families.
  • Expand the customer base with two additional hyperscalers in FY26.
  • Increase production capacity and fund 3nm silicon tape-outs.
  • Extend PILOT software capabilities across the product portfolio.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CRDO EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.01 Q2 '24 actual $0.01, match Q3 '24 estimate $0.03 Q3 '24 actual $0.04, match Q4 '24 estimate $0.05 Q4 '24 actual $0.07, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.04 Q1 '25 actual $0.04, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.27 Q4 '25 actual $0.35, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.36 Q1 '26 actual $0.52, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.49 Q2 '26 actual $0.67, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.91 Q3 '26 actual $1.07, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.02 Q4 '26 actual $1.16, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.17 Q2 '27 estimate $1.27 Q3 '27 estimate $1.67
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy16 ratings
Bullish1487.5%
Neutral212.5%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$169.7Current
$15Low
$207.58Average
$325High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 17, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 15, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 21, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 2, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 2, 2026
Show 11 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $169.7. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$310$218.64 +82.7%Oct 5, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$245$175.89 +44.4%Sep 21, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$292$170.74 +72.1%Sep 2, 2026
Rosenblatt SecuritiesMike Genovese$235$170.17 +38.5%Sep 2, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$275$206.63 +62.1%Sep 2, 2026
See 56 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) specializes in delivering advanced high-speed connectivity solutions for both optical and electrical Ethernet applications. Its operational reach extends globally, encompassing the United States, Mexico, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and various other international regions. The company's product offerings include integrated circuits (ICs), active electrical cables (AECs), and SerDes chiplets, all developed utilizing its proprietary serializer/deserializer (SerDes) and digital signal processor (DSP) technologies. Beyond hardware, Credo also provides intellectual property (IP) solutions, particularly focusing on SerDes IP licensing. Established in 2008, the firm's corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-17T17:40:39.739985+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-17T17:40:39.737231+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-17. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.