Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy43 ratings
Bullish2558.1%
Neutral1637.2%
Bearish24.7%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. · CP · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
CPKC pairs a constructive 2026 outlook with a modest Q4 consensus shortfall
Management's maintained outlook and identified volume drivers support a constructive view of CPKC's operating trajectory into 2026. The reported quarter came in slightly below EPS and revenue consensus, while trade-policy, execution, and regulatory uncertainties remain meaningful counterweights.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$77.98B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.95
Consensus $0.99
EPS surprise
-4.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.86B
Consensus $2.86B
Revenue surprise
-0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+15.5%
Up to 20 sessions
CPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CP FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CP rise 5.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in CP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CP after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The FY2025 Q4 scorecard was modestly below consensus: reported EPS was $0.95 versus $0.99 estimated, and revenue was $2.856729 billion versus $2.864799 billion estimated. Management's outlook was characterized as maintained, with mid-single-digit RTM growth and low-double-digit EPS growth expected for 2026. The supplied analysis also identifies a 15% reduction in 2026 capex and a 5% share-buyback program.
Guidance delta
No change indicated in the supplied analysis: management maintained its outlook for mid-single-digit RTM growth and low-double-digit EPS growth. The analysis separately notes lower planned 2026 capex.
Key takeaways
- Revenue grew 1% year over year in 2025, and the supplied analysis reports a 55.9% Q4 operating ratio and 59.9% for the full year.
- Reported Q4 EPS and revenue were slightly below consensus estimates.
- Management identified grain volumes, intermodal expansion, Americold's refrigerated business, and merger synergies as growth drivers.
- The 2026 plan combines a 15% capex reduction with continued locomotive and network investment, alongside a 5% share-buyback program.
Management priorities
- Expand intermodal services, including SMX with CSX and Gemini alliance volumes.
- Ramp Americold refrigerated operations and complete facility expansions in Kansas City and Port Saint John.
- Continue network upgrades and deploy 100 new Tier IV locomotives in 2026.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$89.68Previous close
$77Low
$93.32Average
$140High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 30, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 12, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 24, 2019 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 28, 2019 |
| National Bank Financial | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 27, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 5, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2017 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2016 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Desjardins | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2016 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 24, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 21, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2015 |
| Salman Partners | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 24, 2013 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jun 20, 2013 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 11, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 1, 2012 |
| Scotiabank | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jul 26, 2012 |
| Clarus Securities | Perform | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 26, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $89.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $96 | $89.43 | +7.0% | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $89.43 | +16.0% | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $99 | $89.78 | +10.4% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $91.18 | +18.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $84.78 | +13.7% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $84.78 | +1.5% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Kristina Ruggeri | $105 | $89.27 | +17.1% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $140 | $89.6 | +56.1% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $104 | $89.93 | +16.0% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $84.28 | +10.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $78.23 | +1.5% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $72.96 | -5.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $71.76 | +3.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $72.94 | -3.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $90 | $72.9 | +0.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $90 | $74.83 | +0.4% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $73.25 | +0.4% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $92 | $78.83 | +2.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $100 | $78.83 | +11.5% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $91.25 | $80.61 | +1.8% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $94 | $84.35 | +4.8% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $95 | $83.54 | +5.9% | Jul 16, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $89.06 | $80.22 | -0.7% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $90 | $78.45 | +0.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $82 | $81.93 | -8.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $83 | $86.65 | -7.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $105 | $87.48 | +17.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $96 | $87.53 | +7.0% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $84 | $88.46 | -6.3% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $76.35 | -4.1% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $80.43 | +9.3% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $79 | $76.22 | -11.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Allison Poliniak | $88 | $76.83 | -1.9% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $77 | $72.15 | -14.1% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| National Bank | Cameron Doerksen | $77.98 | $72.15 | -13.0% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $88 | $72.15 | -1.9% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $84 | $72.8 | -6.3% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Amit Mehrotra | $80 | $71.42 | -10.8% | Nov 29, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $83.55 | $74.7 | -6.8% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $84.35 | $68.12 | -5.9% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $80 | $76.19 | -10.8% | Jun 21, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSpecializing in railway freight transportation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. operates an extensive rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, began its operations on June 22, 2001.
Historical context
All CP earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.0% | +0.5% | General Dynamics raises outlook as orders and backlog surge |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.9% | -6.8% | RBC Bearings: Strong Q2, capacity investment supports second half |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.3% | CN posts strong Q3, maintains EPS outlook and expands Mexico strategy |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +0.8% | MasTec posts record Q3 as power and data-center demand accelerates |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +18.5% | +0.2% | Ingersoll Rand raises FY2026 outlook as orders accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the CP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T06:50:46.245791+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T06:50:46.243059+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.